NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Tuesday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Tuesday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: May 16, 2023 6:09 PM EDT • 6 minute read

Can LeBron James lead the Los Angeles Lakers to a victory in Game 1, but more importantly, can he record more than 5.5 assists? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Tuesday's NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds.

The conference finals are on the horizon, and despite just one day without NBA games to bet on Monday, it felt like an eternity. I'm eagerly anticipating the thrilling rematch from the bubble in Disney World, as LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, and Jamal Murray square off in this highly anticipated series.

I hope you have all our best NBA betting sites fired up and ready to go because, with only one game scheduled per day, utilizing multiple sportsbooks and engaging in price shopping will be more crucial than ever. And to make things even better, we have some rogue prices available on Tuesday that we can capitalize on.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets (-6)

Tuesday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: LeBron James Over 5.5 assists (-104 via BetRivers) vs. Nuggets ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Aaron Gordon Over 13.5 points (-108 via FanDuel) vs. Lakers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 assists (+130 via bet365) vs. Lakers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Jamal Murray Over 6.5 assists (+120 via BetMGM) vs. Lakers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Tuesday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: LeBron James Over 5.5 assists vs. Nuggets (-104 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We're starting Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in a similar fashion to how I opened Game 1 of the Lakers' series against the Golden State Warriors, placing a bet on James to record more than 5.5 assists. Let's hope he doesn't record four assists in the first quarter and then fail to get another one for the entire game, as we witnessed last time.

James is projected to have 6.2 assists against the Nuggets on Tuesday, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -135. With this projection, the bet shows a positive expected value of 13%.

Not only do we observe an advantage in James' assist prop based on the projections, but we're also able to take advantage of a rogue price offered by BetRivers, further increasing our expected value. FanDuel offers the next best price at -113, while Caesars has much shorter odds at -132, which is very close to our price of -135.

This favorable price is highly beneficial in this scenario because even the slight difference between BetRivers (-104) and FanDuel (-113), which may appear insignificant in terms of cents, would reduce your expected value by approximately 4% if you were to bet at FanDuel.

Our Shane Jackson also likes Austin Reaves' assists prop, as he wrote in his Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions.

Player prop: Aaron Gordon Over 13.5 points vs. Lakers (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Aaron Gordon's points prop was a popular choice for the Over throughout the Phoenix Suns series, but let's be honest, he disappointed with four consecutive Unders, failing to score more than 11 points in each of the last four games. This might discourage you from betting on the Over for Gordon on Tuesday, or you can realize that this is precisely why we can take advantage of a lower total of 13.5 points compared to the 15.5 and 14.5 points we saw during the Suns series.

Gordon is projected to score 15.3 points against the Lakers on Tuesday, which is well above the total of 13.5 points. Given this projection, the adjustment from a total of 14.5 points down to 13.5 points significantly increases the expected value of this wager. We can price Gordon at -140 to score more than 13.5 points based on our projection of 15.3 points.

Most of our best sports betting apps agree and offer the Over on Gordon's points prop at -115, except for FanDuel, which offers it at -108. I suggest taking advantage of the -108 price point at FanDuel before it changes, as I expect there will be some steam on Gordon as we approach tipoff.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds

Player prop: Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 assists vs. Lakers (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Throughout the Nuggets series against the Suns, the Over for Gordon's assist had its ups and downs. Gordon whiffed the first three games but then hit some big plus-money bets in the final three games of the series. For Tuesday's Game 1 against the Lakers, we're aiming to cash in on one of those big plus-money winners from Gordon.

Gordon is projected to get 2.9 assists against the Lakers, which is just below our target of three assists to win the bet. However, we're buying this prop at +130! Despite the projection being below our target, it allows us to price this prop at -115, which indicates a clear edge.

The word is out on Gordon's assist prop, and the market is trending towards the Over. Currently, there are two options for the best available price, and that is a +130 via DraftKings or bet365. It's advisable to place this bet as soon as possible since the market is moving towards the Over, and these +130 price points are likely to vanish as the day progresses.

Player prop: Jamal Murray Over 6.5 assists vs. Lakers (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jamal Murray's availability for Game 1 on Tuesday was listed as questionable due to an illness, but the market isn’t buying it as Murray's assist prop is steaming towards the Over. Initially, when I reviewed the data for Tuesday's game, Murray's assist projections were significantly higher than usual, which made me cautious about betting into this market, as there could be a slight error.

However, with Murray's odds moving to +101 for Over 6.5 assists at Pinnacle, the market is signaling us to trust the projections and indicating potential value. The fact that BetMGM has yet to adjust their odds on Murray, still offering +120, gives us essentially free information from the Pinnacle market.

According to the projection, Murray is expected to record exactly 7 assists on Tuesday, which aligns perfectly with our target of Over 6.5 assists. We can price Murray at -115 to have more than 6.5 assists based on this projection, resulting in a positive expected value of 18%.

To maximize this edge, it’s recommended to take your action to BetMGM, where they have yet to update their price on Murray and are still offering +120. Our best NBA betting sites have been slightly slow to react to Murray's assist prop, but rest assured, an adjustment is on the way. Therefore, it's advisable to place your bet while you still can.

NBA best bets made 05/16/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

FanDuel: $1,000 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.