NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Friday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: May 12, 2023 3:41 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Is it possible for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to eliminate the defending NBA champions on Friday? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Friday's NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds.

The Los Angeles Lakers suffered a 15-point loss in Game 5, with LeBron James finishing with a -16 plus-minus rating and Anthony Davis at -22. Such performance is not ideal from your superstar players, but what if I told you that there was a Lakers guard who played 28 minutes in Game 5 and ended up with a +14 rating?

You might find it hard to believe, but this player has been one of the Lakers' top performers in this series, and we have an advantageous position with his points prop for Friday.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat (-5.5)
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5)

Friday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: Dennis Schroder Over 10.5 points vs. Warriors (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists vs. Knicks (-122 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Dennis Schroder Over 10.5 points vs. Warriors (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Before Game 5, I mentioned that Dennis Schroder had been causing problems for the Golden State Warriors, and I want to reiterate that now. In his last three games, Schroder has had a plus-minus of 13, 14, and 14. In Game 5, he had a +14 rating and was the only Laker besides Rui Hachimura with a positive rating. The Lakers seem to be aware of his value, as reflected by the increased minutes he has been given.

In Game 5, I recommended betting on Schroder's assist prop, which he delivered on. However, now that the assist prop has been adjusted to 3.5, I think his points prop offers a better edge.

Schroder is projected to score 11.6 points on Friday against the Warriors, which would put the price of his prop at -120 to score more than 10.5 points. While the pricing advantage is only 18 cents, it represents an expected value of 8%.

FanDuel has the best price on the Over for Schroder's points at -102, and I recommend taking advantage of this early in the day. BetMGM is already trading the Over at -120, and Caesars is close behind at -119.

If FanDuel moves off of the -102 price point, keep an eye on PointsBet, as they were trading the Over at plus money earlier this morning but have since settled at -105.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Player prop: Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists vs. Knicks (-122 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you’ve been following my NBA best bets throughout the playoffs, it may seem like the Knicks-Heat series doesn’t even exist. Other than a Jimmy Butler Under in Game 1, I haven’t been able to find too many pricing errors for many player props, until BetRivers offered -122 on Adebayo to have Over 2.5 assists.

You need to look past the fact that Adebayo has only recorded more than 2.5 assists once in the five games so far in this series. This is why we’re getting such a good price for Game 6. Adebayo is projected to drop 3.3 dimes against the Knicks on Friday, which means we can price the Over 2.5 assists at -165.

The projections are solid, and you always want that on your side, but what’s even better about this bet is the fact that BetRivers is running rogue, and absolutely no one, not a single sportsbook agrees with their price.

Caesars and BetMGM both have the Over 2.5 assists trading at -145, while DraftKings is at -140. That alone should be enough to convince you to hit the button because what are the chances that BetRivers is just smarter than all of these other trading teams?

NBA best bets made 05/12/2023 at 2:45 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.