NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Thursday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: April 27, 2023 4:40 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Can Ice Trae pull off a Game 6 victory against the Boston Celtics? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday's NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds.

We almost nailed a sweep with our NBA best bets on Wednesday, going 3-1 with our picks and winning 1.81 units. The only bummer was our loss on Jimmy Butler's points prop, as he showed up big time against the Milwaukee Bucks (AGAIN) by dropping 42 points.

Thursday's schedule is light, with only one game on the agenda - Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics in Game 6. Since there aren't many NBA prop bets available as of Thursday morning, it might be tricky to navigate the market. However, don't panic because there are still profitable opportunities out there.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

Boston Celtics (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Hawks

Thursday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: Malcolm Brogdon Over 3.5 assists vs. Hawks (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Trae Young Under 27.5 points vs. Celtics (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Thursday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Malcolm Brogdon Over 3.5 assists vs. Hawks (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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I lean toward the Over with all of Malcolm Brogdon's player props on Thursday. However, I believe that his assist total is the most valuable when comparing his projections with the juice and the totals. Brogdon has recorded eight and five assists in games in this series, and we haven't seen a significant adjustment to his odds. Brogdon's total was commonly set at 2.5 and 3.5 throughout the regular season, with the latter usually trading at plus money.

Brogdon is projected to have 4.1 assists on Thursday. Therefore, we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -140, and this bet is showing a positive expected value of 17%.

Given that there's only one game on Thursday's schedule, any slightly mispriced props are likely to see early movement and not go unnoticed. Brogdon is currently trading at -110 via BetRivers and -106 via Caesars. Hence, I recommend taking the even-money price at FanDuel quickly before it moves.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Player prop: Trae Young Under 27.5 points vs. Celtics (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Buyer beware! I've been consistently losing on my Under bets for Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, and Jimmy Butler x2. However, I won't let that stop me from relying on the math for Thursday's game. It's always important to trust the numbers.

According to our projections, Young is expected to score 27.8 points against the Celtics on Thursday. This means that we can price the Under 27.5 points at -105. Although the edge is small in cents, in terms of expected value, it's an 8% edge.

I decided to use Young Under 28.5 (-118) in our same-game parlay because FanDuel wasn't offering the same edge on the alternate Under of 27.5 points that DraftKings was. Based on our projection, Under 28.5 (-118) via FanDuel has an expected value of 4%, while the Under 27.5 (+110) at DraftKings doubles the edge to 8%.

This is the advantage of a straight bet - you're not limited to one sportsbook, so you can shop around at our best sportsbooks for the best price. Despite Young's recent hot streak, I don't think the total stays at 28.5 points. In Game 3, he was trading at 24.5 points, so a four-point jump to 28.5 is too high.

NBA best bets made 04/27/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.