Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Picks, Predictions: Can New Orleans Pull Off the Upset?
Is it really time to trust the Memphis Grizzlies in the midst of a massive slump? Let's examine the matchup in our Pelicans-Grizzlies picks.
The Pelicans are on some kind of roll right now, winning five of their last six games. Friday's affair offers a chance to improve to 12-7 on the young season while building a three-game winning streak.
The Grizzlies are in a different position, entering as the losers of four games over their last five contests. They've lost three times as underdogs during that stretch and were unable to cover.
Here are our Pelicans-Grizzlies NBA picks for Friday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NBA Best Bets for Friday and Nets-Pacers picks.
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Game Info
Date: Friday, Nov. 25, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBA TV
Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Odds
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Odds Analysis
The Grizzlies were initially the 1-point favorites before some significant money hit the home side, pushing Memphis to 2.5-point favorites. The best place to back the road team is PointsBet, where you can get -107 on the 2.5 points. Meanwhile, DraftKings is still hanging two points on this line.
Despite the line movement, the money is really on the Pelicans. While they’ve commanding just 42% of the tickets over at DraftKings, the Pelicans are responsible for 52% of the cash wagered on the spread.
There’s a similar reverse split in favor of the Under, which is taking more money than the Over. The total was initially 229, but it's been bet down around two points at all shops. You can pay -110 for the Over on 227 at DraftKings, and get a -107 price on the Under at 227.5 through PointsBet.
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Picks
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies ATS Pick
Pelicans +2.5 ★★★★
This Steven Adams Bowl may not even happen. The center is questionable, which could throw a huge wrench into the Grizzlies’ plans.
Adams is playing around 30 minutes per game these days, contributing in massive ways on the glass. He’s helping Memphis gain an advantage on the boards, even in defeat. His potential absence could be a huge issue against a Pelicans team that relies on inside scoring and rebounding.
The frontcourt defense from Memphis has been very average, with a 58.3% defended field-goal percentage inside of 10 feet. While New Orleans has been one of the worst teams in that range defensively, it’s absolutely smoking opponents on offense in the interior.
Without Adams, the Grizzlies’ interior defense will fold, and their offense will lack a bit. There’s a good chance he either sits or is somewhat limited, giving the Pelicans an edge.
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Pelicans vs. Grizzlies O/U Pick
Over 227 (-110) ★★★
Yes, the Pelicans boast an elite defense with a fourth-ranked 108.4 defensive rating. But the Grizzlies rank 20th in that regard. Additionally, while the Grizzlies play slow, the Pelicans are around the league average in pace.
However, the Pelicans have been experiencing some variance over their last two games. Their defensive rating has been 125 points or worse, and their pace has been at 99 or better. Small sample sizes be damned, I think we’re seeing a dip in production, and an increase in tempo to make up for the bad defense.
The Grizzlies have been an Under-cashing machine, so I’m a bit scared of playing the Over. But the good news is that it’s gone 3-3-1 when the Grizzlies are the home favorites.
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Prop Pick
Morant under 1.5 threes (+135) ★★★★
The Pelicans rank second in the NBA with a 32.5% 3-point percentage against them. That's quite remarkable considering opponents are attempting 36.4 shots from deep per game, which is among the 10 highest averages.
Ja Morant has been enjoying a great shooting season, but let's slow our roll here. He's playing in a game oddsmakers expect to be low-scoring, and Morant has attempted just five threes over his last two games. Out of those five looks, he’s made just one. He’s also hit multiple threes in just seven of 15 games, and in four of his last 11.
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Pelicans-Grizzlies picks made 11/25/2022 at 1:55 p.m. ET.
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