Japan vs. USA Prediction, Odds, Picks: Women's Olympic Basketball, July 29
Team USA, the overwhelming favorite by the women's Olympic basketball odds, opens play in the Olympic women's basketball tournament when it faces Japan on Monday at 3 p.m. ET from Stade Pierre Mauroy in Lille, France.
The Americans are favored by 19.5 points across our best sports betting sites to extend their 55-game winning streak in Olympic play dating back to Barcelona 1992. This year's roster features A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart - who lead the favorites by the WNBA championship odds - and a star-studded cast around them.
Here is our best Japan vs. USA prediction and expert picks for Monday's contest:
Japan vs. USA predictions for Monday
Japan vs. USA odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- USA -19.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- USA -5.5 1Q (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 9.5 points (+125) ⭐⭐⭐
Prediction: USA -19.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a big number on the surface, but when you consider the historic dominance of the U.S. national team on this stage, it's hard not to back the favorites.
The Americans have an all-time 70-3 record in Olympic play with seven straight gold medals and 55 consecutive wins. They've outscored opponents by 29.3 points on average across those seven gold-medal runs, and they boasted a plus-19.3 scoring margin through six wins in Tokyo 2020.
That included wins of 17 and 15 points over Japan, though this year's group is arguably even better with Wilson and Stewart in their primes and the likes of Alyssa Thomas, Napheesa Collier, and Sabrina Ionescu in overqualified supporting roles.
All of that should spell a 20-point win for Team USA to begin its record-setting quest for gold.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Prediction: USA -5.5 1Q ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you're gun-shy about laying the big number on the Americans, this is another great way to bet on the favorites without the risk of a late backdoor cover.
In its final exhibition contest, Team USA held Germany to just nine points in the first quarter in a 13-point margin through 10 minutes. It also outscored the Germans in the fourth quarter, 20-7, as a final tune-up before this opening match.
It feels like this will ultimately come down to effort. If the U.S. exerts its size and skill early, it should have no issue clearing this mark through the first quarter.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Prediction: Sabrina Ionescu Over 9.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
With much of the attention focused on Wilson and Stewart - and deservedly so - it feels like Ionescu is being overlooked ahead of this Olympic tournament.
The former No. 1 pick had been the best player for the Liberty in the weeks before the Olympic break, averaging 23 points over her final 10 games to spark New York's 9-1 run. Her ability to hit deep shots is key, but she's also been attacking the lane and getting to the free-throw line, too.
Her game is a perfect fit for international play, and I'd be surprised if she doesn't reach double digits in her Olympic debut. These +125 odds are the icing on the cake and would pay out $12.5 in profit on a $10 wager.
Odds: +125 | Implied probability: 44.44%
Japan vs. USA odds & game info
| Japan | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +1400 | -3200 |
| Spread | +19.5 (-110) | -19.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110) |
- When: Monday, July 29
- Tip-off: 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Stade Pierre Mauroy (Lille, France)
- How to watch: USA Network, Peacock
- Favorite: USA -19.5 (-110)
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