🏀 NBA Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Thursday, April 23
📡 SBR Edge: Jokic's Points + Rebounds Set Mile High
My NBA player props today feature James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-130), as he has attempted eight or more 3-pointers in four of his last five meetings with the Raptors. My next NBA best bet is Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds (-110), as he has recorded 39 or fewer points + rebounds in four straight games. I wrap up with CJ McCollum Over 19.5 points (-105), as he has attempted 19 or more field goals in each of his last three meetings with the Knicks.
🏀 Best NBA player props today: April 23
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made | -130 via Caesars | 1.3u -> 1u | Has 8+ 3PA in 4 of his last 5 games vs. TOR |
| Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds | -110 via DraftKings | 1.1u -> 1u | Has recorded 39 or fewer P/R in 4 straight games |
| CJ McCollum Over 19.5 points | -105 via BetMGM | 1.05u -> 1u | Had 19+ FGA in each of his last 3 games vs. NY |
Total wagered: 3.45 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet today
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-130) at Raptors
Not only did Harden connect on 37.5% of his 3-point attempts in the regular season, but he's also been consistently launching from deep against the Raptors.
He has attempted at least eight 3-pointers in four of his last five matchups against the Raptors and has cashed this bet in each of the first two games in this series. As long as Harden attempts eight or more 3-pointers today, this bet should be a winner. Caesars lists Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made at -130, but this bet is good up to -155 on the best sports betting sites.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
The Nuggets have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds (-110) at Timberwolves
Jokic has been falling short of what the market has been expecting from him recently. He has come in at 39 or fewer combined points and rebounds in four consecutive outings, including a 24-point, 15-rebound performance in Game 2.
Denver's defense tends to tighten up come playoff time - something we already got a glimpse of in Game 1 - and if the game slows down, that's bad news for anyone backing Jokic to go Over. Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds is -110 at DraftKings, but I would play this up to -130 on the best NBA betting sites.
CJ McCollum Over 19.5 points (-105) vs. Knicks
The young Hawks are leaning on McCollum to carry the offensive load against the veteran-heavy Knicks.
McCollum was the second-best player on a Portland squad that went to the conference finals, and Hawks coach Quin Snyder is putting his faith in that veteran leadership. McCollum has attempted 19+ shots in each of his last three games against the Knicks.
BetMGM lists his Over 19.5 points at -105, but I'd play this up to -125 on the best sports betting apps. Meanwhile, our Liam Fox targets an Under on one of McCollum's teammates in his Knicks vs. Hawks player props.
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today
While Jokic's Unders are negatively correlated with the Nuggets covering the spread, his points + rebounds line is set too high, and the 2-point spread is low enough that there's a solid chance of both happening at the same time. FanDuel lists this parlay at +260.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds
- Nuggets -2
Best odds: +310 via bet365 (0.32u -> 1u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 134-159-4 | -16.74 units ❌ | -5.4% ❌ |
| Player props | 120-113-4 | -14.67 units ❌ | -5.1% ❌ |
| Parlays | 10-41 | -1.18 units ❌ | -7.3% ❌ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-33 | 0.3 units ✅ | 0.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 21-14 | +4.86 units ✅ | 14.7% ✅ |
| Parlays | 2-14 | -2.17 units ❌ | -45.3% ❌ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today
I risked 1.3 units on Harden's 3-point prop in Toronto, which is what I would usually risk on a standard player prop, because I like the bet directionally and believe his line is set too low. However, these lines aren't priced too far from where I'd set them, which is why I'm not risking more. If I believed I had a larger edge, I would be willing to risk up to 2.5 units per bet - or 5 units in a once-in-a-year type scenario.
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