🏀 Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets for Game 3
📡 SBR Edge: Jokic Overvalued Ahead of Game 3
My Nuggets vs. Timberwolves player props for Game 3 today feature Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds (-110), as he has gone under this line in four straight games. My second NBA best bet is Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 points (-105), as he has scored 26 or fewer points in three of his five meetings with the Nuggets this season.
π Best Nuggets vs. Timberwolves player props: NBA Playoffs Game 3
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds for the playoffs.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds | -110 via DraftKings | 1.1u -> 1u | Has gone Under in 4 straight games |
| Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 points | -105 via BetMGM | 0.53u -> 0.5u | Has scored 26 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games vs. DEN |
Total wagered: 1.63 units | Max profit: 1.5 units
π° Best Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prop bet
The Nuggets have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds (-110)
Jokic has been underperforming relative to market expectations. He has posted 39 or fewer combined points + rebounds in four straight games, including a 24-point, 15-rebound outing in Game 2.
The Nuggets' defense usually improves in the postseason - we already saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 - and a slow, grind-it-out pace would only help Jokic go Under. DraftKings has his Under at -110, but this bet is good up to -130 on the best sports betting sites. I also feature this bet in my NBA player props tonight.
π₯ More Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 points (-105)
Edwards (knee) isnβt at full health, as he has been questionable for all three games in this series.
While he has been healthy enough to play, he's averaging just 26 points per game in this series. Over a larger sample, he has scored 26 or fewer points in three of his five meetings with the Nuggets this season.
Another concern for Edwards is that Denver's defense usually improves in the playoffs, so we should expect more low-scoring performances moving forward. Edwards' Under is -105 at BetMGM, but I would play this up to -120 on the best sports betting apps.
π Nuggets vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay
Although Jokic's Unders are negatively correlated with Denver covering the spread, his points and rebounds total is priced too high, and with the spread sitting at just 2 points, there's a reasonable chance both outcomes hit tonight. FanDuel has this parlay priced at +260.
💵 Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SGP picks
- Nikola Jokic Under 42.5 points + rebounds
- Nuggets -2
Best odds: +310 via bet365 (0.32u -> 1u)
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 134-159-4 | -16.74 units β | -5.4% β |
| Player props | 120-113-4 | -14.67 units β | -5.1% β |
| Parlays | 10-41 | -1.18 units β | -7.3% β |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units β | -13.1% β |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units β | -4.1% β |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-33 | 0.3 units β | 0.7% β |
| Player props | 21-14 | +4.86 units β | 14.7% β |
| Parlays | 2-14 | -2.17 units β | -45.3% β |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units β | -52.5% β |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units β | -4.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: NBA Playoffs Game 3 strategy
I'm risking more on Jokic's prop than Edwards' because Edwards' line is closer to where I would personally set it. While I like both bets directionally, I believe Jokic's will be more profitable in the long run. If I believed I had a larger edge, I would be willing to risk up to 2.5 units per bet - or 5 units in a once-in-a-year scenario.
π Nuggets vs. Timberwolves injuries: Game 3
Injury report last updated at 6:12 p.m. ET.
Nuggets
- Aaron Gordon (calf) - out
- Peyton Watson (hamstring) - out
Timberwolves
- Jaylen Clark (illness) - questionable
- Anthony Edwards (knee) - questionable
- Terrence Shannon Jr. (illness) - questionable
πΊ How to watch Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Game 3
- Date: Thursday, April 23
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Target Center (Minneapolis)
- TV: Prime Video
- Spread: Nuggets -2.5
- Total: 232.5
- Moneyline: Nuggets -128 | Timberwolves +116
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