France vs. USA Prediction, Odds, Picks: Who Will Win Women's Olympic Basketball Gold Medal Game?
One more win over France and Team USA will capture its record-setting eighth consecutive gold in Olympic women's basketball.
Entering the matchup as a 15.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites, it doesn't look like much will get in the way of A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart in their chase for gold.
We breakdown why both are poised for stellar performances in our France vs. USA prediction, odds, and expert picks.
France vs. USA predictions for Sunday
France vs. USA odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- A'ja Wilson Over 29.5 points + rebounds (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Breanna Stewart Over 17.5 points (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Gabby Williams Over 14.5 points (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Prediction: A'ja Wilson Over 29.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Las Vegas Aces are the WNBA Championship odds favorite for a reason. That reason is Wilson's dominance, and she's carried over her unstoppable MVP play from the WNBA to the Olympics.
Wilson is averaging 18.2 PPG and 9.6 RPG while logging just 26 MPG. Nobody can slow her with her physicality and touch around the rim allowing her to shoot 62.9% from the floor. France doesn't have the talent to shut her down and Wilson should be able to hit 30 combined points and rebounds for the fourth time in Paris.
In the gold medal game, she'll likely need to play more minutes, too. Against Belgium, we saw her take the court for 34 minutes and she ended up with 36 combined points and rebounds. A $10 winning bet on Wilson pays an $8.70 profit.
Odds: -115 | Implied probability: 53.49%
Prediction: Breanna Stewart Over 17.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wilson and Stewart have combined to win four of the last six WNBA MVPs and that talent has been on full display at the Olympics. No team has been able to stop either of them, and each other's presents on the court has just made it easier for them to score.
Stewart's been playing just 24 MPG in the tournament, but putting up 18 PPG on 61% shooting. Like Wilson, she hasn't needed to play major minutes because of Team USA's dominance. However, in the two games she's played more than 23 minutes (Japan, Belgium), she's averaged 24 points.
I expect France to put up enough of a fight that Stewart's scoring prowess will be needed. If she goes Over 17.5 points for the third time this Olympics, a $10 bet pays out $18.70.
Odds: -115 | Implied probability: 53.49%
Prediction: Gabby Williams Over 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
The show Gabby Williams has put on for the home crowd in Paris has been impressive. She's France's leading scorer with 14.8 PPG and she'll need to continue putting up shots if there's going to be any chance of an upset.
After averaging 13 PPG on 10 shots per game across 24 MPG over France's first two outings, Williams has taken on a larger workload as of late. In France's last three games, she's averaging 16 PPG and has gone Over 14.5 in all three.
In those games, she's averaging 27.6 MPG while taking 13 shots. Given what's at stake here, I think she'll play her most minutes of the tournament, and cross 14.5 points for the fourth straight game. If she does, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
Odds: -115 | Implied probability: 53.49%
France vs. USA odds & game info
| France | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +1000 | -2000 |
| Spread | +15.5 (-110) | USA -15.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110) |
- When: Sunday, Aug. 11
- Tip-off: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Where: AccorHotels Arena (Paris)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock (streaming)
- Favorite: USA -15.5 (-110)
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