Nuggets vs. Suns Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Phoenix Secure Home Win in Game 3?

Check out our top predictions for Friday's matchup between the Nuggets and Suns based on the best NBA odds.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: May 5, 2023 5:26 PM EDT • 4 minute read

After losing the first two games of the series, the Phoenix Suns desperately need to win Game 3 at home against the Denver Nuggets. Read on for our Nuggets vs. Suns prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The Phoenix Suns are hoping a return to their home floor will be enough to flip the script in this Western Conference semifinal series. The Denver Nuggets won both games to jump out to a 2-0 lead, in which both victories came by double-digits.

Despite point guard Chris Paul being ruled out for Game 3, Phoenix is considered a 4-point favorite over Denver. But we are turning to the player prop market for our best bet in this matchup.

Here is our best Nuggets vs. Suns prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nuggets vs. Suns prediction

Deandre Ayton Over 15.5 points (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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With Paul sidelined, Phoenix will rely on its top players even more to secure a must-win Game 3. Sure, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker will likely provide a huge impact. But we are betting on the third option by taking the Over on Ayton's points prop at BetMGM.

Ayton averaged 18 points per game during the 2022-23 regular season, but his volume obviously took a hit with the addition of Durant. Ayton has only cleared this mark twice over his last seven games, but he is still averaging 18 points per outing during the postseason.

The efficiency is there for Ayton, especially in this series. He went 7-for-11 in a 14-point effort in Game 1, followed by another 14-point performance on 7-of-10 shooting in Game 2. With a few more shots in Game 3, we project Ayton to have no problem clearing this number.

Ayton has cleared this mark in 19-of-36 home games this year for a 53% hit rate, according to props.cash. He has done so 47% of the time in road games. Dating back to last season, Ayton has finished Over this points prop in 20 of his 33 games when playing without Paul.

I believe we are getting a discount on the the third option for the Suns, who desperately need all of their top players to perform to secure their first win of the series. We recommend this prop as a three-star pick and would play this at anything -130 or better.

Nuggets vs. Suns best odds

BetMGM (-120)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
Over 15.5 points	Over 15.5 points	Over 15.5 points	Over 15.5 points	Over 16.5 points
-130	-128	-120	-121	-105

Four of our five best NBA betting sites have set this line at 15.5, with PointsBet being the lone shop to offer 16.5 that has an Under juiced to -120. We are placing this at BetMGM, which has the Over priced at -120.

For those looking for a juicy payout, FanDuel has alternate lines for every player. Ayton is +210 to score 20-plus points and +700 to finish with 25-plus points. The Suns could use a big performance from their big man in this one.

Nuggets vs. Suns odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Nuggets vs. Suns odds analysis

The Suns opened as 4.5-point favorites, despite their 0-2 start in this series. Phoenix is now laying -4 at best sports betting sites, which is likely due to the market believing in Denver a bit more at this point.

The total opened at 225.5 before dropping down to a consensus line of 225 at the best sportsbooks.

Nuggets vs. Suns game info

Date: Friday, May 5, 2023, 10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Nuggets-Suns pick made 05/05/2023 at 12:40 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.