NBA Finals Preview Tonight in Thunder vs. Celtics: NBA Championship Odds Favorites Collide
The two betting favorites to win the NBA Finals square off for the second and final time this regular season tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Boston Celtics. Tipoff from TD Garden in Boston is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Our NBA championship odds preview and predictions look at both teams' case to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy this season. Boston and Oklahoma City are winning at nearly a combined 80% clip during the regular season, but whether this success will translate to the postseason remains to be seen. Which side is the safer bet as the playoffs loom large?
Our Shane Jackson makes his Thunder vs. Celtics prediction and player props for tonight's game. The hosts are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM in the season's final meeting between championship hopefuls.
Read on for our analysis of the NBA championship odds race ahead of tipoff tonight.
🔢 Celtics vs. Thunder statistics
Here is a head-to-head statistical comparison between the two NBA championship contenders, as of March 12:
| Team | Record | Points Per Game | Opponent PPG | Avg. Win Margin | Net Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 47-18 | 116.9 PPG | 108.2 PPG | +8.7 | 9.4 |
| OKC Thunder | 53-12 | 119.7 PPG | 107.1 PPG | +12.6 | 12.0 |
🥊 Head-to-head performances
Oklahoma City leads the season series 1-0 heading into tonight's game.
🗓️ Jan. 5, 2025: Oklahoma City 105, Boston 92
The Thunder beat Boston at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City early in 2025, kicking off the new year with a third consecutive victory.
The Western Conference leaders coasted to a 13-point victory behind NBA MVP odds favorite Shai Gilgeous Alexander. SGA scored a game-high 33 points - adding six assists and 11 rebounds - as he outdueled Jayson Tatum (26 points, one assist, 10 rebounds) and Co., to earn a win on home turf.
🍀 The case for the Celtics
The case for the Celtics is relatively simple: they're winners. Boston is the reigning NBA champion and until it fails to show a serious dip in form or relinquish the title, it'll be the team to beat in the Association.
The general public's pushback against the Celtics for much of the season has been that they aren't as good as last year. While the record may not show it - they'd need to go on a 17-0 run to end the year to equal their 2023-24 output - they're arguably better.
Joe Mazzulla has a deeper, healthier roster this season than he did last year. Boston possesses an extremely well-rounded starting five, both in terms of experience and strengths. Factor in NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds favorite Payton Pritchard, and the Celtics now feature a dynamic scorer in the second rotation, which is important come playoff time.
There are obvious concerns that come along with a team that has failed to get out of first gear during the regular season. However, those worrying signs aren't there with the defending champions because they've proven to everybody that they can get the job done when the lights are brightest.
🌩️ The case for the Thunder
The Thunder are the betting favorites to win the NBA Finals, and it's easy to understand why this is the case.
Oklahoma City leads the NBA in several key metrics, including net rating and average winning margin. It boasts the fourth-best offensive rating in the league with 118.5 and an NBA-best defensive rating of 106.1. Mark Daigneault's men are also the only ones to rank top five in points per game scored and points per game allowed, sitting fourth and second respectively.
While the Thunder retained their core that disappointingly crashed out of last year's playoffs, they added better defense, depth, experience, and height in the offseason to fill those voids. This shows on the statsheet with OKC being among the NBA's best in blocks and steals per game, as well as bench net rating and a plethora of hustle statistics.
All of these stats - along with a league-best team free-throw percentage - often translates to postseason success.
🔮 NBA Finals prediction
The one problem with the case being made for the Thunder is it hasn't amounted to anything yet. Oklahoma City is on pace to top the Western Conference in the regular season for the second consecutive campaign. However, an early exit last year is giving bettors pause, especially compared to the reigning champions.
The Thunder are undoubtedly capable of winning a championship and they're deserving favorites in the West. It must also be noted, though, that their side of the playoff bracket is much more challenging than the Celtics' Eastern Conference.
Boston's only real hurdle in the East is the Cleveland Cavaliers. While we're not quick to dismiss NBA Coach of the Year odds favorite Kenny Atkinson's side, it's no secret the West is more stacked from top to bottom. Oklahoma City could have to contend with Denver, Golden State, Los Angeles, and a number of other loaded rosters.
Therefore, given the Celtics' championship experience and presumably easier path to the NBA Finals, they're our predicted champions at this stage of the season. Boston is trading at +230 with our best sports betting sites, meaning a $10 winning wager would return $23 in profits.
Prediction: Celtics (+230 via DraftKings)
📊 Live NBA championship odds
Our best sportsbooks provide live, updated lines for the NBA championship odds market.
🏀 Best NBA betting sites
Looking to bet on the NBA? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available throughout the NBA season.
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
