NBA Championship Odds 2026: Thunder Lead Contenders After All-Star Break
I'm diving into the NBA championship odds coming out of the All-Star break, with the Thunder remaining the betting favorite to win the title.
They aren't my best bet to win the NBA championship, however, which I offer alongside my top long shot to target.
📊 NBA championship odds 2026
Our NBA championship odds update in real time. See the NBA odds for the best odds on each game during the 2025-26 season.
🏆 Who is the NBA championship favorite?
The Thunder (+130) continue to be the NBA championship betting favorite as they pursue their second consecutive title.
However, Oklahoma City is just 18-13 after starting the season an incredible 24-1. That's partly due to the injury issues the team has dealt with to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein.
When the Thunder are healthy, they are the best, deepest, and most efficient squad in the NBA. They have the next couple of months to make sure their top players are at their best come playoff time. If they are, the Thunder might be unstoppable. Their current +130 odds translate to an implied probability of 43.48%, per our odds converter.
💰 Best bet to win NBA championship: Pick to win NBA Finals
The Spurs (+1600) have been my favorite pick to win the NBA championship for much of this season, and I'll continue to back them as a dark horse.
As he demonstrated at NBA All-Star Weekend, Victor Wembanyama is coming for everybody this season. The 7-foot-4 Frenchman is a skeleton key for the Spurs on both ends of the court, and the perfect Thunder nullifier. That's demonstrated by Oklahoma City averaging just 107 points per game versus the Spurs, down from their season-long 119.7 PPG average. San Antonio is 4-1 against the Thunder so far this season.
Playoff inexperience and lackluster 3-point shooting could hold the Spurs back, but their advantages are immense and outweigh their weaknesses in my view.
These odds won't be available come playoff time, when San Antonio will be a popular pick to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the first time in the Wembanyama era. That's why I'm backing them now at +1600 odds (5.88% implied probability).
🎯 NBA championship long shot: Best sleeper pick
I considered teams with odds longer than +2000 to win the 2026 NBA championship for my top long shot pick, landing on the Rockets (+2200).
We knew Houston's defense was going to be elite this season, but its offense has been much better than expected following the loss of Fred VanVleet. The addition of Kevin Durant has proved masterful, and his pairing with fellow All-Star Alperen Sengun gives the Rockets a lethal one-two punch. The Thunder are the only other team to feature both a top-six offensive and defensive rating.
The betting market doesn't reflect that the Rockets are a bona fide NBA championship contender, as their +2200 odds translate to an implied probability of just 4.35%.
📜 NBA championship odds history
Here are the last 10 NBA champions and their preseason betting odds.
| Season | Champion | Preseason betting odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Thunder | +500 |
| 2023-24 | Celtics | +400 |
| 2022-23 | Nuggets | +1800 |
| 2021-22 | Warriors | +900 |
| 2020-21 | Bucks | +550 |
| 2019-20 | Lakers | +450 |
| 2018-19 | Raptors | +1850 |
| 2017-18 | Warriors | -187 |
| 2016-17 | Warriors | -128 |
| 2015-16 | Cavaliers | +280 |
❓ NBA Championship FAQs
Who is favored to win the 2026 NBA championship?
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the favorite to win the 2026 NBA championship at +130 odds. That implies a 43.48% probability they win the NBA title.
Who won the NBA Finals last season?
The Oklahoma City Thunder won the NBA Finals last season by beating the Indiana Pacers in seven games.
When will the 2026 NBA Finals be decided?
The 2026 NBA Finals will start sometime in June.
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