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Luka Doncic Player Props & Odds vs. Timberwolves: Friday's Western Conference Finals Prop Bets

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: May 24, 2024 4:34 PM EDT • 3 min 12 sec read.

Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks drives to the basket as we offer our best Luka Doncic player props and predictions for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center on Friday.
Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks drives to the basket in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center on May 22, 2024 in Minneapolis. Photo by David Berding/Getty Images via AFP.

On Friday, the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves go at it in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, and we have you covered with our best Luka Doncic player props predictions based on the best NBA odds. 

The focus before the series started revolved around whether Luka Doncic could dismantle the Minnesota Timberwolves' highly-regarded defense Doncic put all doubts to bed, scoring 33 points to lead all scorers and guide the Dallas Mavericks to a 108-105 comeback victory at Target Center in Minneapolis.

The Timberwolves are 5-point favorites for Game 2, which tips off on Friday at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT and truTV.

The Mavericks now have the second-shortest NBA championship odds among the remaining teams. Although Doncic dazzled in Game 1, our top sports betting sites question whether he can sustain such a high level of play in Game 2. The critical issue is whether the Timberwolves can adjust and contain Doncic, a leading contender by the 2024 NBA Finals MVP.

In addition to our Mavericks vs. Timberwolves player props and Mavericks vs. Timberwolves SGP, here are our best Luka Doncic NBA player props predictions for Friday's Mavericks vs. Timberwolves matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Luka Doncic odds, player props

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Luka Doncic Over 28.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Is Doncic finally back? After a nagging knee injury hampered him in the first and second rounds, the All-NBA guard sliced and diced his way through the Timberwolves' defense to score 33 points - including 15 in the fourth quarter alone - in his second-best effort of the postseason.

The key was Doncic's ability to manipulate the Timberwolves' vaunted defense in the mid range: 18 of his 33 points were from 2-point range, and the Mavericks shot 78% at the rim as a team. The result was Doncic's third straight game with at least 29 points, and his 26 attempts were tied for the most in these playoffs.

I'm as high on Minnesota's defense as anyone, but I'm not sure I see the adjustment to keep Doncic out of the paint, especially with teammate Kyrie Irving (30 points) cooking in his own right. These -108 odds are the best on the market and would profit $9.26 on a $10 wager, per our odds converter.

Best odds: -108 via DraftKings

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Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Doncic finished with eight assists on Wednesday, but it felt like he could have had even more with how effortlessly he manipulated Minnesota's defense.

While he was aggressive finding his shot in the fourth quarter, Doncic spent much of the first three quarters baiting the Timberwolves' bigs away from the rim before lobbing it to Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. That play has become a staple of the Mavericks' offense, and it's virtually unguardable when executed properly.

Minnesota tried to force the ball out of Doncic's hands late in the game with aggressive traps and blitzes. If that happens again - and he's prepared for it - it could even help his chances of finding open shooters as he's done all postseason long.

Doncic had posted 10-plus assists in three straight games before Wednesday, and he's cleared this total in nine of 13 playoff games, even as he played through injury. Once again, DraftKings is offering the best price on a prop with -115 odds or worse across the rest of our best sportsbooks.

Best odds: -108 via DraftKings

Luka Doncic Over 1.5 steals ⭐⭐⭐

For all that Doncic did right on the offensive end in Game 1, he also played arguably the best defense of his entire career. That included picking up a game-high three steals, tied for his most in a game this postseason.

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Defensive props are notoriously volatile, but Doncic has finished with two or more steals in six of his last seven games, and his contribution on that end was pivotal to the Mavericks stealing Game 1 on the road. I'd expect another active effort from Dallas' star guard on Friday, making this a compelling play at decent -108 odds.

Best odds: -108 via DraftKings

Luka Doncic player props picks made Thursday at 5:45 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.