Heat vs. Celtics Predictions, Picks & Odds: Butler Continues to Bring the Heat

Check out our top predictions for Friday's matchup between the Heat and Celtics based on the best NBA odds.

Jon Metler

Last updated: May 19, 2023 2:53 PM EDT • 4 min read

The Miami Heat are looking to spring a second upset of the Boston Celtics and take a 2-0 Eastern Conference Finals series lead back to Miami. Read on for our Heat vs. Celtics prediction based on the best NBA odds.

After the Heat's Game 7 loss to the Celtics last year, Jimmy Butler confidently stated at the podium that Miami would return to this exact position the following year and successfully accomplish their goal.

Butler, known for his intense competitive spirit, explicitly informed us that the Heat would win the Eastern Conference finals this season, yet we chose not to believe him. Perhaps it's time for us to take a step back and acknowledge that the Milwaukee Bucks didn't choke, but rather the Heat are simply playing exceptional basketball at the right moment.

Though I'm personally tempted to join the Heat bandwagon, I will divert my attention to a player prop that once again presents some value for Game 2.

Here is our best Heat vs. Celtics prediction (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. Celtics prediction

Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists vs. Celtics (-130 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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I'm genuinely astonished that PointsBet has chosen to set the Over on Adebayo's assist prop at a nearly identical number as it did for Game 1. We purchased Adebayo Over 2.5 assists at -122 through FanDuel for Game 1, while several other of our best NBA betting sites offered it at -130. Surprisingly, PointsBet has now listed the same odds for Game 2.

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During his press conference, Adebayo emphasized that the Celtics began employing double teams against him, and due to his "phenomenal passing" ability (his own words, not mine), Adebayo was able to find his teammates and accumulate several assists. One would assume that with a viral clip of Adebayo discussing his aptitude for dropping dimes, coupled with his five assists in Game 1, PointsBet would have set a different initial number for this prop. However, that is not the case.

Adebayo is projected to record 3.3 assists against the Celtics on Friday, which exceeds his total of 2.5 assists. Therefore, based on this projection, we can set the price for Adebayo to have more than 2.5 assists at -170.

In comparison, Caesars has the Over 2.5 assists trading at -147 for Adebayo, while BetMGM has it at -145. This clearly demonstrates where PointsBet may have missed the mark with its pricing. Due to the favorable odds at -130, Adebayo Over 2.5 assists will be among my favorite player prop bets for Friday's Game 2 matchup.

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Heat vs. Celtics best odds

PointsBet (-130)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
Over 2.5 asts	Over 2.5 asts	Over 2.5 asts	Over 2.5 asts	Over 2.5 asts
-140	-138	-145	-147 ❄️	-130 🔥

PointsBet is the top sportsbook to place this bet among all of our best sports betting apps because of the -130 juice it offers on the Over. Our projection priced this bet at -170, resulting in an expected value of 11% at the -130 price point. If you were to place the bet at Caesars with odds of -147 instead of PointsBet, your expected value would decrease to 6%. By not shopping around and grabbing the best price, you would lose almost half of your edge.

Heat vs. Celtics odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Heat vs. Celtics odds analysis

The spread for Game 2 opened at Celtics -8 or -8.5, depending on the sportsbook, and has now shifted to Celtics -9.5 at our best live betting sites.

In terms of the total, it opened at 215 and has remained steady. All our best sportsbooks agree on this total, offering the same number and the same -110/-110 juice.

Heat vs. Celtics game info

Date: Friday, May 19, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Heat-Celtics pick made 05/19/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.