Heat vs. Celtics Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Boston Set Tone in Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals?

Check out our top predictions for Wednesday's Heat-Celtics playoff matchup based on the best NBA odds.

Shane Jackson

Last updated: May 17, 2023 6:19 PM EDT • 4 min read

The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat meet again in the Eastern Conference Finals, but should we expect the same result as in last year's series? Read on for our Heat-Celtics prediction based on the best NBA odds.

In a rematch from last year, the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are set to clash once again in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics managed to defeat the Heat in a grueling seven-game series in 2022, and they are considered strong favorites to come out on top once more by the NBA Finals odds.

Boston enters this series with momentum after a convincing victory over the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 7, despite losing the opening game of that series. However, the Celtics understand the importance of starting strong in Game 1 this time around.

Although dealing with injuries, the Heat are known for their resilience and won't be as prone to relinquishing a series lead as the 76ers were in the previous round. They pose a formidable challenge for the Celtics.

Here is our best Heat-Celtics prediction for Game 1 (odds via PointsBet; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. Celtics prediction

Gabe Vincent Over 3.5 assists (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The Celtics have a problem with coughing up some games they should win, which is why their opening-round series against the Atlanta Hawks went six contests, and their semifinal matchup went the distance. Boston should take care of business against a depleted Miami squad. But how confident are we in that happening?

There could be value in Heat-related markets early in the series, especially with bettors underestimating the team's chances in this series. The assist prop for point guard Gabe Vincent really stands out right now.

Vincent has cleared this assist line in eight consecutive games, averaging 5.25 dimes per contest over that span. He averaged 4.7 assists per outing during a six-game series victory over the New York Knicks in the previous round.

That's been a theme ever since Tyler Herro suffered his injury in Game 1 against the Milwaukee Bucks during the opening round, and he remains sidelined with a broken hand. The Heat need another playmaker to step up in his absence, and Vincent has obliged while averaging 4.7 assists in the 10 games since then.

Vincent is registering a 64% hit rate while covering this assist prop in 25 of his 39 games without Herro over the last two seasons, according to props.cash. That probably helps explain why props.cash is projecting 4.4 assists for Vincent in Game 1.

With those projections, we should be paying a much steeper juice to take the Over with our NBA best bets for Heat-Celtics Game 1. Instead, PointsBet, which Fanatics recently acquired, is offering a standard -110 vig. We'll happily take the discount for this four-star Heat vs. Centics prediction.

Heat vs. Celtics best odds

PointsBet (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists	Over 3.5 assists
-115	-115	-130	-125	-110

All of the best sports betting apps have set Vincent's assist line at 3.5, but the juice on the Over varies depending on the shop. In this case, PointsBet is offering an appetizing -110 vig to bet on Vincent recording four-plus assists in Game 1.

Given his recent form, we would play this Over at anything -120 or better before looking elsewhere in the prop market. This means both DraftKings and FanDuel offer playable numbers.

Heat vs. Celtics odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Heat vs. Celtics odds analysis

The spread hasn't really moved at our best NBA betting sites, as the Celtics have moved up to just 8.5-point favorites since the lines opened. Based on the current market, Boston is being valued about 5 points better than Miami on a neutral court entering this series. However, Miami has drawn 66% of the bets on the spread.

As for the total, the line hasn't moved off 210 at the best sports betting sites. Yet, the Over is drawing 58% of the betting action into Wednesday evening.

Heat vs. Celtics game info

Date: Wednesday, May 17, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Heat-Celtics pick made 05/16/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.