NBA Finals Odds: Thunder Favored with 94% Chance to Win 1st Championship

Oklahoma City is one win away from capturing its first NBA title with sportsbooks all but declaring the series over.

Last updated: June 17, 2025 5:00 AM EDT • 4 min read

NBA Finals Odds: Thunder Favored with 94% Chance to Win 1st Championship — Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots against Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith (23) in the 2025 NBA Finals. Photo by Kyle Terada / Imagn Images.

The Oklahoma City Thunder seized control of the 2025 NBA Finals with a 120-109 win over the Indiana Pacers in Game 5, and our best sports betting sites consider it a foregone conclusion OKC will finish the job by Sunday.

The Thunder are -1600 favorites by the latest NBA Finals odds, which implies a 94% chance that Oklahoma City delivers the first NBA title to the city since the franchise relocated from Seattle in 2008. The Pacers are catching +900 odds across our best sports betting apps after losing two straight games.

We're breaking down the latest NBA Finals odds, the favorites to win NBA Finals MVP, and our best bet and NBA picks to win the title entering Game 6 on Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

🏆 2025 NBA Finals odds: Who will win Thunder vs. Pacers?

Latest 2025 NBA Finals odds via Caesars following Game 5.

Team	Odds	Implied probability
Thunder	-1600	94.12%
Pacers	+900	10%

Even after falling down 2-1 in this series, the Thunder remained the betting front-runners to win it all after opening as one of the shortest favorites in NBA Finals history. So, to many, it was only a matter of time until their course corrected.

That's easy to say in hindsight after Indiana blew Game 4 with too many turnovers and missed free throws, only to cough it up 23 times in a game that Tyrese Haliburton didn't make a shot. Given that his injury is clearly ailing him heading into Game 6, it's tough to see Indiana making an inspired push.

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Assuming the Thunder take care of business as the market expects, the MVP award will go to either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams.

SGA opened with the shortest NBA Finals MVP odds when this series was confirmed, which came on the heels of him cashing his NBA MVP odds in the regular season. He's followed that up by leading all players in the series with 32.4 points and 5.0 assists per game while averaging 2.4 steals on the other end.

Yet Williams' 40-point eruption in Game 5 to secure control of this series for OKC has skyrocketed him from long shot to legitimate dark horse to win MVP honors. He's averaged 25.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists of his own while taking over for stretches in each of the last two games.

If the Pacers do come back, it'll be a complicated call between Tyrese Haliburton - who led Indiana to this point amid an all-time clutch postseason but didn't make a single basket in Game 5 - or teammate Pascal Siakam, who has been key on both ends of the court in these finals after winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP, too.

🤔 NBA Finals prediction & best bet to win series

I'll admit it: I backed Indiana to win the series early in Game 3 at +400 odds, and I truly started to believe when the Pacers held on to win that game and seemingly took command of the series with minutes left in Game 4.

That's when everything fell apart for the NBA Finals underdogs, whose star point guard hasn't looked the same over the last 5-6 quarters of this series. Even without him, Indiana nearly pulled it off in Game 6 before the inevitable Thunder wave washed over a suddenly undermanned Pacers rotation.

The math was against OKC after that Game 3 loss, but the historic brilliance we saw in the regular season has finally started to take hold in this series. I'd be inclined to back Indiana to extend the series if Haliburton is healthy, but without much optimism there, I'd suspect this one ends Thursday in Indy.

✅ Best bet: Thunder win series in 6 games (-190 via BetMGM)

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💵 Best NBA betting sites

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.