🏀 Who Will Go No. 1 in the 2026 NBA Draft? Odds, Rumors for the Top Pick

Following a college basketball season that was defined by its historically dominant freshman class, the 2026 NBA Draft has plenty of intrigue ahead of Round 1 on Tuesday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC).

For the past several months, three of those talented freshmen have been in the conversation to hear their name called first, but who will go No. 1 in the 2026 NBA Draft?

While BYU's AJ Dybantsa leads prediction market apps as the favorite to go No. 1 to the Washington Wizards, recent rumors have implied that there could be a shake-up to kick off the 2026 NBA draft.

📊 2026 NBA Draft No. 1 overall pick odds

🥇 The Dybantsa vs. Peterson debate for No. 1

Throughout the college basketball season, Dybantsa, Kansas' Darryn Peterson, and Duke's Cameron Boozer were viewed as the surefire top three picks in the NBA draft. And while not much has changed in terms of them being the top three prospects, Dybantsa has seemingly emerged as the top dog in the class.

The 6-foot-9 forward led college basketball in PPG (25.5) during his lone season at BYU, which included averaging 31 in the Big 12 Tournament and dropping 35 in his only NCAA Tournament game.

Dybantsa has been the projected No. 1 overall pick for well over a month now, with most high-profile NBA draftniks mocking him as the Washington Wizards' selection, which is why he's the overwhelming favorite at Kalshi.

However, it was Peterson who came into the college season regarded as the top NBA prospect. And though his season at Kansas was filled with ups (20.2 PPG in 29 MPG) and downs (missing several games and exiting several more due to cramping), the combo guard is considered the most gifted scorer in the class.

Rumors surrounding the No. 1 pick

Up until a week and a half ago, it seemed that Dybantsa going No. 1 to the Wizards was a foregone conclusion. But with the NBA draft approaching, the situation has become slightly murky because of how Peterson has handled the pre-draft process, and because of the way the team with the No. 2 pick covets Dybantsa.

First of all, the Kansas guard initially declined pre-draft meetings with every team not named the Wizards, including the Utah Jazz, who own the No. 2 pick (he has since met with the Jazz, but not in Utah). Then, there's the Keyonte George factor with Utah.

George, who's repped by the same agency as Peterson (The Team), is up for a contract extension, and it seems as if the agency doesn't want the players taking opportunities away from each other by being on the same team.

It appears as if Peterson and his agency are trying to force him to D.C. to join a team that has a clear opening next to Trae Young, who just signed a $212 million deal, in the backcourt. Washington has reportedly been doing a lot of research into Peterson in recent days, too.

Then there's the Utah connection for Dybantsa, who just spent his freshman year becoming a beloved star in the state. It's rare for a player with superstar potential to have such deep ties to Utah, to the point it's his preferred landing spot.

Heck, just last year, the Jazz had to deal with No. 5 pick Ace Bailey not really wanting to be selected by them, so to be able to get a player like Dybantsa, who's already been embraced by the fans and wants to be in the Beehive State for the long haul, has to be tempting for Jazz GM Justin Zanik and CEO of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge. 

The X-factor here is that Jazz owner Ryan Smith is a BYU alum and has been heavily linked to NIL efforts in Provo. Could the team owner push for a trade to ensure Dybantsa stays in state?

😈 What about Cameron Boozer? 

Dybantsa isn't the only player who has a relationship with the Jazz, either. Boozer's father, Carlos, played six years in Utah and was a two-time All-Star for the franchise ... and he currently works in the team's front office.

If Dybantsa goes No. 1 to the Wizards, could the Jazz pass on Peterson to take a player they know wants to play for them at No. 2? While Boozer isn't considered to have the same upside and ceiling as Peterson, he just won the Wooden Award as the best player in college basketball.

The 18-year-old is built like a grown man at 6-foot-9, 255 pounds, and he was a double-double machine for Duke. Boozer was the only player in the country to average over 20 PPG (22.5) and over 10 RPG (10.2) last season.

With a versatile skillset and one of the highest basketball IQs in the class, could Utah opt for Boozer over Peterson due to his high floor and connection to the franchise?

2026 NBA Draft No. 2 overall pick odds

🔮 Prediction: Who hears their name called first?

For all the fun and games of the last week or so, in the end, I believe it will be Dybantsa who hears his name called first on Tuesday night.

With that said, I still think there's a chance that after he's selected with the top pick, and the Jazz take Peterson No. 2, that the teams hammer out a trade that flips them, a la Eli Manning being selected No. 1 by the then San Diego Chargers before being flipped to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers and several picks in 2004.

That's more of a fun draft night dream, though, than a reality, which is why the best play at Kalshi is to back Dybantsa to go No. 1. And after that, the next three picks feel pretty set in stone too, with Peterson to the Jazz, Boozer to the Memphis Grizzlies, and Caleb Wilson to the Chicago Bulls.

The real excitement starts at No. 5 with the Los Angeles Clippers likely considering one of four guards (Keaton Wagler, Darius Acuff Jr., Kingston Flemings, Mikel Brown Jr.), and their selection set to have a major impact on how the rest of the lottery pans out. 

2026 NBA mock draft: Projecting Round 1

Kalshi odds in brackets for top 15 picks.

*Though my mock draft has AJ Dybantsa being selected No. 1 overall by the Washington Wizards, I'm projecting he will then be dealt to the Utah Jazz for No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson