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Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reacts as we share our favorite Canada vs. Slovenia pick.
Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reacts during the FIBA Basketball World Cup group L match between Spain and Canada in Jakarta. Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP.

Wednesday's quarterfinal matchup between Canada and Slovenia in the FIBA World Cup will feature plenty of NBA talent. Our Canada vs. Slovenia prediction is based on the best FIBA World Cup odds.

Canada enters the quarters with all of the momentum after eliminating reigning champ Spain on Sunday. The Canadians emerged victorious thanks to the last-second heroics of Dillon Brooks and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Meanwhile, Slovenia suffered its first loss of the tournament with a brutal 100-71 defeat to Germany. Slovenia built an early lead but collapsed down the stretch as Doncic couldn’t get anything going.

Doncic and Co. will need to bounce back both offensively and defensively if they hope to beat Canada and advance to the semifinals.

Canada has never medaled in the FIBA World Cup, but it's the second-biggest favorite to win the tournament behind only the USA. Canada’s depth gives it a clear edge, but its last two games have been decided by four or fewer points.

Here is our best Canada vs. Slovenia prediction for Wednesday's FIBA World Cup matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canada vs. Slovenia prediction: FIBA World Cup

Under 176.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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While Canada is one of the highest-scoring teams in the World Cup, the squad’s points per game average is bolstered heavily by big early wins. Canada defeated Lebanon 128-73 in Game 2, but after that win, the Canadians have averaged just 84.5 points over their last three.

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Slovenia has averaged 88.5 points per game in the tournament overall and 85.5 over their last four. Slovenia scored 100 points just once through five games, defeating Venezuela 100-85 way back in Game 1. That Game 1 win was the only game in which Slovenia eclipsed 176 total points. Canada has gone Over that mark only once in five games as well and totaled exactly 176 points in a 101-75 win over Latvia. 

Canada is far deeper than Slovenia, but Slovenia has a star who can put the team on his back in Luka Doncic. The Canadians will surely gameplan to take Luka out of the equation using Gilgeous-Alexander’s length and Brooks’ ability to pester opponents. If Slovenia’s other players are forced to beat Canada, it could be an ugly affair. If Doncic struggles like he did against Germany (9-of-22 from the field, 2-of-11 from deep), we could see an equally ugly final score from Slovenia. 

We’ll take the Under and count on Canada throwing everything it has at Doncic and the teams’ low-scoring trend continues in this elimination game.

Canada vs. Slovenia best odds

bet365 (-110)

Under 176Under 175.5Under 175.5N/AUnder 176.5

Both of these teams have come close to 177 points without going Over, with Canada hitting 176 on the nose against Latvia. We’ll take the book that offers the highest total at bet365.

Get our best odds for Canada vs. Slovenia with our exclusive bet365 bonus code, and use code SBRBONUS!

Canada vs. Slovenia odds analysis

The Slovenian team is headlined by Doncic, who’s averaging 26.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.8 assists. Unfortunately for the Slovenians, Luka is a one-man band, and the team goes as he goes. For that reason, we’re betting on the point total rather than the spread, which is set fairly low at just 7.5 points. If Luka erupts, Slovenia can pull off the upset, and the total bet is much safer.

Slovenia isn’t a huge dog on the moneyline, but bettors confident in Luka can get the best moneyline odds at bet365, where Slovenia is +320. 

Canada vs. Slovenia game info

  • When: Wednesday, Sept. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manila, Philippines
  • How to watch: ESPN

Canada-Slovenia pick made 09/03/2023 at 11:15 p.m. ET.

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