NBA Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Can Pacers, Nuggets Avoid Massive 3-0 Hole?
Two NBA teams could slip into a 3-0 hole on Friday, and we're offering our top NBA player props and expert picks based on the best NBA odds.
Friday is a monumental day for the hopes of two teams, one of which entered the playoffs as the favorite in the Western Conference by the NBA championship odds.
The Denver Nuggets head to Minnesota following two home losses to the Timberwolves, and the title odds for these two teams have flipped. The Timberwolves are sitting at around +300 to win it all, while the Nuggets are now as long as +2000.
Minnesota will enter the game as a 4.5-point favorite, with the clash set to begin at 9:30 p.m. ET at Target Center.
However, the Indiana Pacers will try to start the night on a positive note for teams facing 2-0 deficits. Fortunately, the Pacers are at home to the New York Knicks, and they'll serve as -7.5 favorites through our best sports betting sites.
Friday's first game will begin at 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Here are our NBA player props and expert picks for Friday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s NBA expert picks
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 6.5 points (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Naz Reid Over 3.5 rebounds (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Friday’s NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via Betway)
- Knicks vs. Pacers | Spread: Pacers -7.5 | Total: 222.5
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Spread: Timberwolves -4.5 | Total: 204.5
NBA player props
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐
The Pacers received all they could have asked for from star guard Tyrese Haliburton in Game 2 following his pitiful Game 1 effort, and they still suffered a nine-point loss. Haliburton exploded for 34 points on 11-of-19 shooting, adding nine dimes.
Knowing that scoring effort wasn't enough to top the Knicks, we could see Haliburton distribute the ball more early in the game to get his teammates going. Our trusted projections support that notion, too, as Haliburton is expected to dish out 10.45 assists on Friday.
Based on that projection, we're getting nearly 19% positive expected value through these +100 odds at BetMGM.
None of our other best sports betting apps are offering even money on this Over, and Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is at -115 after posting a -105 to open.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM
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Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐
Jalen Brunson is on another level right now. He dropped 29 points in Wednesday's home win, even while missing extended time with a foot injury. Brunson had scored 40-plus points in four straight games prior to that contest.
However, we need to consider whether the foot issue could bother Brunson on Friday. If that's the case, we could see him pass more early to ensure he feels good enough to score late in the game if the Knicks need it.
Based on our trusted projections, we're getting nearly 13% +EV on this Over through BetMGM's -105 odds. Pinnacle opened at -110 and has moved to -128, and two of our best sportsbooks are already nearly at that price, too.
Make sure you get these odds before the price disappears.
For more on Brunson's outlook for Game 3, head over to our Knicks vs. Pacers player props.
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 6.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been best known this series for putting the clamps on Nuggets star Jamal Murray. But he quietly also scored 14 points in Game 2 after putting up five on six shots in Game 1.
With the Timberwolves returning home, this third contest could be an even more significant bloodbath than the previous two, and we're getting a good number on Alexander-Walker contributing in his usual fashion. He averaged eight points per game in 2023-24.
Alexander-Walker's projection for Friday is nearly right in line with his season scoring average of 8.25. Based on that number, we're getting nearly 18% +EV through these -108 odds at DraftKings.
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings
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Naz Reid Over 3.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐
Timberwolves big man Naz Reid's minutes have dipped as expected with the return of Karl-Anthony Towns, but he's still been mighty productive.
Reid cleared this rebound total in both games so far against Denver. And he could see extended time on the floor again with Minnesota serving as the home favorite on Friday, as was the case in Game 2 when he played 29 minutes during the blowout win.
The NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award winner is projected to pull down 4.4 boards on Friday. Based on that projection, we're getting just better than 21% +EV on this bet. For its part, Pinnacle is already at -123, and most of our other sites with the best sportsbook promos are hovering around -115.
Our Nuggets vs. Timberwolves player props also detail why you should back Reid to go Over his 3-pointer total at even-money odds.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings
NBA player props made Friday at 10 a.m. ET.
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