🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: March 24 Best Bets, Odds & Picks
📡 SBR Intel: NBA Player Props Tonight
My NBA player props tonight feature Zion Williamson Over 2.5 assists (-155), as the Knicks will likely load up the paint and force him to be a distributor. Jalen Brunson Under 25.5 points (-110) is my next NBA best bet. The Pelicans are trending upward defensively, and the market hasn't adjusted enough. I wrap up with LaMelo Ball Over 20.5 points (-110), as he gets to show off tonight against the NBA's worst defense over the last three games.
🏀 Best NBA player props tonight: March 24
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson Over 2.5 assists | -155 via BetMGM | 2.33u -> 1.5u | Will be forced to pass vs. Knicks' 2-pt defense |
| Jalen Brunson Under 25.5 points | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1u -> 1u | Pelicans allow 8th-fewest points in last 3 games |
| LaMelo Ball Over 20.5 points | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1u -> 1u | Kings rank last in defensive efficiency in last 3 |
Total wagered: 4.53 units | Max profit: 3.5 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Zion Williamson Over 2.5 assists (-155) at Knicks
Williamson attempts just 0.1 three-pointers per game, so he should struggle to score tonight against the Knicks, who allow the eighth-lowest 2-point percentage (53.6%) in the NBA.
However, Williamson will be able to stuff the stat sheet with assists, as he has the second-highest usage rate (25.3%) on the Pelicans and should have trouble driving to the basket. He has gone over this number in two of his last three games. BetMGM lists Williamson Over 2.5 assists at -155, but this bet is good up to Over 3.5 (+175 or greater) on the best sports betting sites.
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: Knicks -8.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- How to watch Pelicans vs. Knicks: Gulf Coast Sports, MSG Network
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
The Knicks have the sixth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Jalen Brunson Under 25.5 points (-110) vs. Pelicans
I don't think this is a great spot for Brunson, who is coming off back-to-back games against tanking teams. The Pelicans are not tanking - they don't own a first-round pick in the draft - and rank 11th in defensive efficiency over the last three games.
They're trending upward defensively and have won five of their last seven games. This should be a harder matchup for Brunson and the Knicks than the market anticipates. Brunson Under 25.5 points is -110 at BetMGM, but I would still play this up to -130 on the best NBA betting sites.
Jalen Brunson prop trends
Here's an analysis of how Brunson's most popular props have performed lately and against the Pelicans:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Pelicans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 24.5 points | -120 via FanDuel | 2-3 ❌ | 2-3 ❌ |
| Over 3.5 rebounds | +121 via DraftKings | 3-2 ✅ | 0-5 ❌ |
| Over 6.5 assists | -148 via FanDuel | 4-1 ✅ | 2-3 ❌ |
| Over 2.5 three-pointers made | -122 via FanDuel | 1-4 ❌ | 5-0 ✅ |
Brunson's scoring lately hasn't been impressive - both overall and in recent meetings with the Pelicans.
However, he has made three or more 3-pointers in each of his last five matchups against New Orleans. It's always difficult to find much value in head-to-head stats when players face the Pelicans, though, as the roster has dealt with numerous injuries over the years.
LaMelo Ball Over 20.5 points (-110) vs. Kings
The Kings are the opposite of the Pelicans. The front office wants to get to the draft ASAP, while the players are just looking to pad their own stats on offense - so you can imagine the amount of effort going toward defense.
The Kings rank last in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last three games, allowing 122 or more points in each outing. Ball scored 30 against the Kings on March 11, and tonight should look similar. BetMGM has Over 20.5 (-110), but this bet is good up to -130 on the best sports betting apps.
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Spread: Hornets -17.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
- How to watch Kings vs. Hornets: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, NBC Sports California
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks tonight
This parlay has solid value because I believe that if the Kings cover the spread, it's likely that Ball will play more minutes. The concern with playing a Hornets starter to go over his points is that there's a strong chance this game ends in a blowout, meaning Charlotte's starters would play fewer minutes in the fourth quarter. While I haven't placed this bet yet - I'm waiting to see if I can get 18.5 on the Kings - this is my favorite parlay of the night.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- LaMelo Ball Over 20.5 points (-112)
- Kings +17.5 (-110)
Best odds: +300 via bet365
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 71-67-3 | +3.32 units ✅ | 2% ✅ |
| Player props | 69-57-3 | +3.71 units ✅ | 2.3% ✅ |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units ✅ | 87% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-10 | -1.9 units ❌ | -58.3% ❌ |
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | Over 27.5 points | -105 |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | Over 16.5 points | -105 |
| Aaron Gordon | Nuggets | Over 16.5 points | -105 |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | Over 3.5 rebounds | -110 |
| Royce O'Neale | Suns | Over 8.5 points | -135 |
Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 points (-105) is the most-bet player prop at BetMGM. I didn't play this, but I do target another star guard in my Magic vs. Cavaliers player props.
I would lean Under on Mitchell at this number, as there's a strong chance he plays fewer minutes tonight, since the Cavaliers could be winning by 20+ in the fourth quarter (Cleveland is a 10.5-point betting favorite).
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I'm allocating 4.53 units so far on tonight's slate, which is slightly more than I would usually risk on three player props. The reason is that I'm confident Williamson's assists line is too low at BetMGM. Out of the best sportsbooks, I've had the most success betting player props at BetMGM, especially when it is offering a much better price than FanDuel. As a general rule, sportsbooks that are less likely to limit bettors (like FanDuel) are going to be better at pricing player props than other recreational books.
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