🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Saturday, May 9
📡 SBR Edge: Down 2-0, Reaves Scores Over 20
My NBA player props tonight feature Austin Reaves Over 20.5 points (-125), as he has attempted 16 shots in three of his four playoff games. My second NBA best bet is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-114). The Lakers are doubling him as soon as he puts the ball on the floor. I wrap up my top picks with Marcus Smart Over 11.5 points (-105), as he averaged 17 PPG at home in the first round.
🏀 Best NBA player props tonight: May 9
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves Over 20.5 points | -125 via BetMGM | 1.25u -> 1u | Has attempted 16 shots in 3 of 4 playoff games |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points | -114 via BetRivers | 1.14u -> 1u | Lakers are doubling him after 1 dribble |
| Marcus Smart Over 11.5 points | -105 via BetMGM | 1.05u -> 1u | Averaged 17 PPG in 1st-round home games |
Total wagered: 3.44 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Austin Reaves Over 20.5 points (-125) vs. Thunder
I’m liking Reaves’ aggression in the playoffs so far. With Luka Doncic out, Reaves has attempted 16 field goals in three of his four postseason games and is coming off a 31-point performance in Game 2.
The Lakers will be even more desperate to pick up a win tonight since they’re down 2-0 in the series, which means we’ll likely see the most aggressive version of Reaves yet. BetMGM lists Reaves Over 20.5 points at -125, but I'd play this up to -145 on the best sports betting sites.
💸 More Thunder vs. Lakers expert picks
Our LJ Blut backs the Lakers to cover the spread with his NBA play of the day.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
The Thunder are the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-114) at Lakers
I’ve already cashed this bet twice in this series, and if the market isn’t going to correct this line, why stop betting it?
L.A. has been doubling Gilgeous-Alexander immediately after he takes his first dribble, meaning he has been forced to pass the ball and can’t get into his usual spots to operate.
He has scored 22 or fewer points in each game of this series, attempting no more than 15 shots in either outing. Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points is -114 at BetRivers, but I would play this up to -135 on the best NBA betting sites.
Marcus Smart Over 11.5 points (-105) vs. Thunder
My thought process here is that role players should perform better in front of their home crowd, and I’m probably onto something with Smart in this situation. Smart averaged 17 PPG at Crypto.com Arena in the first round and scored just 12.3 PPG in Houston.
He went over this line in both games in Oklahoma City, but what is even more reassuring is how aggressive he was - he attempted 13 or more shots in each outing. His Over 11.5 points is -105 at BetMGM, but I'd be comfortable playing this up to -125 on the best sports betting apps.
🏀 More Thunder-Lakers player props
Our Shane Thurston features two picks on LeBron James in his Thunder vs. Lakers player props for Game 3.
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | Under 29.5 points | -110 |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | Over 9.5 rebounds + assists | -140 |
| LeBron James | Lakers | Under 6.5 rebounds | -120 |
| Marcus Smart | Lakers | Over 10.5 points | -135 |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | Under 0.5 blocks | -130 |
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks tonight
The Lakers won the first half in Game 2 (in Oklahoma City), and one of the main reasons they were successful was that they were getting the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander's hands. So, if the Lakers win the first half tonight, they're likely getting the ball out of his hands again, meaning Chet Holmgren is more likely to go Over on his points. Bet365 lists this SGP at +470, while FanDuel doesn't allow these two picks to be combined.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points
- Lakers first-half ML
Best odds: +470 via bet365 (0.28u -> 1u)
💡 More NBA expert picks tonight
- NBA player props tonight
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers player props
- NBA play of the day: Thunder vs. Lakers
- Thunder vs. Lakers player props
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 175-186-4 | -4.82 units ❌ | -1.3% ❌ |
| Player props | 152-129-4 | -6.52 units ❌ | -2% ❌ |
| Parlays | 19-52 | +2.59 units ✅ | 12.1% ✅ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 67-59 | +12.53 units ✅ | 13% ✅ |
| Player props | 53-30 | +13.01 units ✅ | 16.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 11-24 | +1.9 units ✅ | 19.1% ✅ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
The Lakers went from being a 15.5-point underdog in Games 1 and 2 to an 8.5-point underdog in Game 3. The market is expecting a much stronger performance from the Lakers as they return home after falling behind 2-0 in the series. Because of that, I’m looking toward Lakers players’ Overs and Thunder players’ Unders. However, I’m not blindly betting either side, as I still need playoff evidence that these bets are directionally correct.
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