🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Expert Picks for March 6
Some of the biggest brands in the league take the court tonight as the NBA rolls out a seven-game slate. The Boston Celtics welcome the Dallas Mavericks to Beantown, the New York Knicks travel to face the Denver Nuggets, and the LA Clippers hit the Lone Star State to face the San Antonio Spurs.
My NBA player props tonight feature three All-Stars: Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Brunson, and Jaylen Brown. Leonard will try to hold his own against a long, physical Spurs team, but I don't expect him to grab that many boards. Brunson has been more of a distributor than a scorer lately, and I attack the best way to bet that. My NBA best bet is on Brown, who has been cashing rebounding props non-stop since the All-Star break.
🏀 Best NBA player props tonight: March 6
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown, Celtics | Over 6.5 rebounds (-118 via FanDuel) | 1.18u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kawhi Leonard, Clippers | Under 6.5 rebounds (-115 via DraftKings) | 1.15u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jalen Brunson, Knicks | Under 26.5 points (-113 via Caesars) | 1.13u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.46 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet tonight
The Celtics have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 rebounds (-118) vs. Mavericks
Brown has been a monster on the boards coming out of the All-Star break. He's recorded seven or more rebounds in six straight games during that span. I don't believe that streak is noise, as he has grabbed 11 or more boards three times during that stretch.
With Jayson Tatum returning tonight, expect Brown to keep his rebound streak alive, as Tatum likely won't be aggressive on the boards coming off an Achilles injury. FanDuel lists Brown's Over 6.5 rebounds prop at -118, but this bet is good up to -135 on the best sports betting sites.
💸 More Mavericks vs. Celtics player props!
I break down the best Jayson Tatum player props for the Celtics star's return tonight.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Kawhi Leonard Under 6.5 rebounds (-115) at Spurs
Leonard has recorded eight rebounds in back-to-back games, but those were against the Indiana Pacers and Golden State Warriors, who are 24th and 25th, respectively, in rebounds per game. He will have a much harder time rebounding tonight, as the Spurs rank eighth in rebounding, averaging 55.2 per game.
Additionally, the Spurs have won back-to-back games by 15 or more points, so Leonard will likely play fewer minutes if San Antonio builds a large early lead. Leonard's Under 6.5 rebounds prop is -115 at DraftKings, but I would play it on the best NBA betting sites up to -130.
⛵️ More Clippers vs. Spurs player props!
Victor Wembanyama headlines my Clippers vs. Spurs player props.
Jalen Brunson Under 26.5 points (-113) at Nuggets
The Over on Brunson's points has not been a good bet coming out of the All-Star break. Brunson has scored 26 or fewer points in three straight games, and, over a larger scale, has gone under this number in six of his eight games since the break.
The Nuggets aren't great defensively overall, but they're capable of limiting star players. They held Luka Doncic and LeBron James to just 27 and 16 points, respectively, on Thursday. Caesars offers Brunson Under 26.5 points at -113, but this bet is good up to -125 on the best sports betting apps.
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
My bankroll strategy is to treat 1 unit as 1% of the money I have set aside solely for sports betting.
I am allocating 3.46 units for these three players - which is what I bet on average - as I'm confident directionally in these plays. However, they are not priced too far from where I would set them. I usually bet up to 2.5 units on plays with a larger edge, or, if using quarter-Kelly, 5 units could also be wagered in rare scenarios.
💰️ Bankroll management
LJ Blut breaks down his approach to bankroll management in sports betting.
📈 My win/loss record: Updated March 6
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units ❌ | -49.68% ❌ |
| Player props | 37-30-3 | +4.96 units ✅ | 5.8% ✅ |
| Overall | 38-38-3 | +3.62 units ✅ | 4.1% ✅ |
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Below is my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | Over 12.5 assists + rebounds | -110 |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | Under 12.5 points | -110 |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | Under 23.5 points | -120 |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | Over 27.5 points | -125 |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | Over 9.5 rebounds + assists | -140 |
It's interesting to see that LaMelo Ball Over 12.5 assists + rebounds is the most popular player prop at BetMGM tonight. He has gone under this line in four of his last five games; however, that does not mean that I am fading the play.
Tatum Under 12.5 points is a solid bet and is also featured in my Jayson Tatum player props. While Tatum will likely play under 25 minutes in his return from a torn Achilles, I was expecting more bettors to be on his Over, since he is such a popular player.
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