🏀 Jayson Tatum Player Props Today: Celtics Star Returns vs. Mavericks Tonight

Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum makes his return tonight against the Dallas Mavericks after rehabbing a torn Achilles. The Celtics forward was listed as questionable on Thursday afternoon but has since been cleared to play. Tipoff from TD Garden in Boston is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

The Celtics are a 15.5-point betting favorite over the Mavericks, with the line unchanged after Tatum was announced as active, as the betting market expects him to play limited minutes in his return. Now that he's back, my Jayson Tatum player props focus on his points and rebounds markets, with expert analysis for tonight's NBA best bets.

🏀 Best Jayson Tatum player props: NBA picks for March 6

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.72 units | Max profit: 2 units

💰 Best Jayson Tatum prop bet

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Jayson Tatum Under 4.5 rebounds (-158)

It's unlikely that Tatum will play significant minutes coming off of a torn Achilles. For reference, Kevin Durant played just 25 minutes when he returned from his torn Achilles in 2020, and he took an entire season off.

With Tatum returning 62 games into the season, don't expect him to be extra aggressive on the boards - even if the Celtics let him play over 20 minutes. FanDuel has Tatum Under 4.5 rebounds at -158, but I would still play it at any of the best sports betting sites up to -180.

🚨 Jayson Tatum injury update: Celtics star returns vs. Mavericks

Tatum makes his season debut for the Celtics tonight against the Mavericks in Boston. The Celtics’ official injury report confirmed the update at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Tatum was originally listed as questionable on Thursday afternoon, with ESPN’s Shams Charania reporting the news.

Tatum has yet to play this season after suffering a torn Achilles in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year. In 2024-25, the Celtics star averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and six assists per game.

🔥 More Jayson Tatum prop picks

The Celtics have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.

Jayson Tatum Under 12.5 points (-114)

There are too many factors working against Tatum for the Over to hit. First, this line opened at 13.5 and has since been bet down, as the market expects Boston to be very cautious easing Tatum back into action.

Additionally, Boston is priced as the best team in the Eastern Conference, and it earned that respect with the chemistry it's built throughout the season. It will take time for Tatum to jell with this somewhat different roster and get as many touches as Jaylen Brown. FanDuel lists Tatum Under 12.5 points (-114), but this bet is good up to -125.

💡 How I'm betting Jayson Tatum player props

For my bankroll strategy, I treat 1 unit as 1% of the money I’ve set aside exclusively for sports betting. I’ve allocated 2.72 units for this game - which is what I would typically wager on two player props - because, while I'm confident in these bets, they're not priced too far off from where I’d set them.

I’m projecting a closer-than-expected, low-scoring affair on Friday, as the Celtics are above average defensively when coming off a loss, and reintroducing Tatum may throw off the chemistry that Boston has built this season without him.

🚑 Live Mavericks vs. Celtics injury report

📺 How to watch Mavericks vs. Celtics today

• Date: Friday, March 6
• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: TD Garden (Boston)
• TV: ESPN