NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Friday, Nov. 6
After going 5-0 Thursday, I'm back with my NBA best bets today.
While I don't expect to keep winning at a 100% clip, I've found three lines that I believe are mispriced. I'm targeting three of the later games, starting with Raptors vs. Bucks, which tips off at 8 p.m. ET, and wrapping up with Spurs vs. Kings, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET.
NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Nov. 6)
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| Matchup | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Raptors vs. Bucks | Raptors -6.5 (-109 via Pinnacle) | 1.64 units to profit 1.5 units |
| Jazz vs. Mavericks | Mavericks -7.5 (-102 via Pinnacle) | 1.53 units to profit 1.5 units |
| Spurs vs. Kings | Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds (-120 via theScore Bet) | 1.2 units to profit 1 unit |
Picks submitted: Nov. 6 at 10:22 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 4.37 units | Max profit: 4 units
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Best NBA bet today
Raptors vs. Bucks prediction: Raptors -6.5 (-109)
Yes, the Raptors are still without Kawhi Leonard, but they're significantly better than the Bucks, even when short-handed. Toronto ranks fifth in the Eastern Conference with a 4.7 net rating, compared to the Bucks, who rank 14th out of 15 teams in the East with a -11.8 net rating.
The Raptors are coming off a bad loss against the Nuggets, but they've been among the NBA's best teams at bouncing back. Since last season, Toronto is 23-16 straight up after a loss, while the Bucks have lost each of their last four games by seven or more points.
Play to: -7.5 (-107)
⏰️ Set your alarm: Raptors vs. Bucks
- Tip: 8 p.m. ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum
- How to watch: NBA League Pass
More NBA picks & player props for Friday
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jazz vs. Mavericks prediction: Mavericks -7.5 (-102)
The Mavericks have covered four of their last five games, but against-the-spread results can be noisy.
The actual signal for me moving forward is that Dallas has faced the toughest strength of schedule in the NBA, per Power Rankings Guru. So, while the Mavericks are just 4-4, the fact that they've exceeded expectations against the league's toughest schedule makes me believe Dallas is much better than the average .500 team.
The Jazz, meanwhile, have a -11.3 net rating, which ranks 14th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference.
Play to: -7.5 (-114)
⏰️ Set your alarm: Jazz vs. Mavericks
- Tip: 8 p.m. ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
- How to watch: NBA League Pass
Spurs vs. Kings prediction: Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds (-120)
I don't want to overreact to Victor Wembanyama grabbing 24 rebounds against the Mavericks Wednesday - even though that doesn't hurt this bet - but he actually has a great matchup to go over this line today. The Kings, despite having Domantas Sabonis, are not a good rebounding team. Sacramento ranks 14th out of 15 teams in the West with a 48% rebounding percentage.
The Mavericks, at least, rank 12th in the West in rebounding percentage, and Wembanyama still managed to grab 24 boards in just 34 minutes against them. He has a better than 54.55% chance of grabbing 12 tonight.
Play to: Over 12.5 (+121)
⏰️ Set your alarm: Spurs vs. Kings
- Tip: 10 p.m. ET
- Venue: Golden 1 Center
- How to watch: NBA League Pass
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