NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Thursday, Nov. 5

There are only two games on the slate Thursday, but that's all I need to find value with my NBA best bets today.

I feature two plays for Magic vs. Suns, which tips off at 9 p.m. ET, and a best bet on the spread in Heat vs. Warriors, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET.

NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Nov. 5)

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

Picks submitted: Nov. 5 at 12:16 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.

Total wagered: 4.38 units | Max profit: 4 units

Best NBA bet today

Heat vs. Warriors prediction: Warriors -6.5 (-116)

The Heat are coming off a one-point win in Los Angeles and are on the second half of a back-to-back, so I don't trust them to come out energized today, especially considering how they've played this season. The Heat rank 21st with a -5.1 net rating, compared to the Warriors, who rank 13th with a 2.4 net rating.  

See my full analysis in my Heat vs. Warriors prediction.

Play to: -7.5 (-115)

More NBA picks & player props for Thursday

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Magic vs. Suns prediction: Suns -1.5 (+103)

The Suns may be just 1-5 straight up, but they have also played the second-hardest schedule in the NBA, per Power Rankings Guru.

All six of their games have been against teams that made the postseason in 2025-26, and two of those were against the Trail Blazers, who have improved significantly this season.

The Magic, meanwhile, will be without both Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, who combined for 36.0 points and 10.7 assists per game last season. The market is correct to have the Suns favored at home, but I make them an even larger favorite.

Play to: -1.5 (-108)

Franz Wagner Over 6.5 assists (-118)

Franz Wagner has become the main distributor on the Magic with both Suggs and Banchero injured.

He has posted a team-high 39.4% assist percentage over the last five games, ranking first on the team with a 28% usage rate. He's tied with Desmond Bane for the most points per game in that span (20.4), so I'm expecting the Suns to help on Wagner, who will have the ball in his hands more than Bane. That will lead to more open shooters or bigs cutting to the basket.

The Suns will likely win this game, but part of that game script could involve forcing the ball out of Wagner's hands at the point of attack.

Play to: Over 6.5 (-128) or Over 7.5 (+148)