Heat vs. Warriors Prediction: NBA Picks & Odds for Thursday, Nov. 5
The Heat are on the second half of a back-to-back after an OT win, and my Heat vs. Warriors prediction fades the team with a negative net margin.
My NBA picks back the Warriors as a 6.5-point betting favorite, with tipoff from Chase Center in San Francisco set for 10 p.m. ET (NBA TV). The total is set at 235.5 (juiced to the Under).
Heat vs. Warriors picks & odds
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors -6.5 | -116 via Pinnacle | 1.74 units to profit 1.5 units |
| Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 assists | -104 via BetRivers | 1.04 units to profit 1 unit |
| Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points | -115 via BetMGM | 1.15 units to profit 1 unit |
Picks submitted: Nov. 4 at 2:26 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3.93 units | Profit if all picks win: 3.5 units
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Heat vs. Warriors best bet
Warriors -6.5 (-116 via Pinnacle)
The Heat are coming off a one-point win in Los Angeles and are on the second half of a back-to-back, so I don't trust them to come out energized today, especially considering how they've played this season. The Heat rank 21st with a -5.1 net rating, compared to the Warriors, who rank 13th with a 2.4 net rating.
Miami has failed to cover its last two games by an average margin of 12 points per game, and those were against the Lakers and Clippers, who both rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating. The rested Warriors should win easily today.
Play to: -7.5 (-115)
Score prediction: Warriors 123, Heat 114
Heat vs. Warriors player props
Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 assists (-104 via BetRivers)
While the rested Warriors should easily win by margin today, Davion Mitchell still gets to go against a defense that struggles to protect the rim.
The Warriors allow the eighth-most assists per game in the NBA and the sixth-highest defended field-goal percentage less than six feet away from the basket.
As of time of publish, the Heat have yet to submit their injury report, so I can't guarantee that Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bam Adebayo will start, but even if it's Bobby Portis or Nick Richards, Mitchell will have plenty of opportunities to feed bigs in the paint.
Play to: Over 7.5 (-112)
Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points (-115 via BetMGM)
The Heat haven't done a great job guarding point guards lately, and I don't believe that will magically change on the second night of a back-to-back after an overtime win.
Miami is allowing an average of 34.0 points per game to point guards across its last two games, and it only helps this bet that Stephen Curry is the Warriors' No. 1 option on offense.
After a slow start to the season, which is typical for Curry in recent years, he has scored 31 or more points in three straight games, averaging 23.7 field-goal attempts per game in that span.
Play to: Over 27.5 (-103)
Live Heat vs. Warriors odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Heat vs. Warriors page.
Latest Heat vs. Warriors injuries
How to watch Heat vs. Warriors
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 5
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Chase Center (San Francisco)
- TV/Streaming: NBA TV
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