UConn vs. Michigan Prediction: College Basketball Picks & Odds (Nov. 6)

My UConn vs. Michigan prediction highlights why both defenses should excel Friday. No. 16 Michigan struggled from beyond the 3-point line against Oakland and now has to face one of last year's best 3-point defenses in No. 4 UConn.

UConn is a 5.5-point betting favorite, with tipoff from TD Garden in Boston set for 8 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, I explain why there is value in backing Elliot Cadeau and Na'jai Hines, despite this likely being a defensive struggle.

UConn vs. Michigan picks & odds

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.

Picks submitted: Nov. 5 at 2 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.

Total wagered: 5 units | Profit if all picks win: 4.62 units

UConn vs. Michigan best bet

Under 145.5 (-105 via FanDuel)

Last year, Michigan ranked seventh in defensive efficiency while UConn ranked 15th. Michigan allowed 69.5 points per game, and UConn was even better, allowing just 65.2.

Both of these teams scored over 80 in their season openers, but those contests were played against far inferior competition. With each team losing their top-three scorers from a season ago, I worry about how transfers and young players in elevated roles will perform against the best defenses they've faced thus far.

I'm particularly worried about Michigan, which shot just 21% from 3-point range and 44% from the field against Oakland. Last season, teams shot just 40.3% from the field and 30.2% from 3-point range against UConn.

Play to: Under 141.5 (-110)

Score prediction: UConn 73, Michigan 63

UConn vs. Michigan player props

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Na'jai Hines Over 14.5 points + rebounds (-105 via DraftKings)

Hines had a great first game with UConn, scoring 12 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in just 22 minutes. He won't quite hit those numbers against Michigan, but he still averaged 6.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game with Seton Hall last season. That was despite not starting once and averaging just 18.0 minutes per contest.

Michigan struggled to stop Oakland's Chris Fields Jr. on Monday, as he finished with 18 points on 5-of-14 shooting and grabbed 10 rebounds. All of his attempts were inside the 3-point line, and he shot 12 free throws. Hines got to the line six times against Gardner-Webb, and I expect even more chances as he battles with JP Estrella, who fouled out against Oakland.

Play to: Over 17.5 points + rebounds (-110) or Over 18.5 (+120)

Elliot Cadeau Over 11.5 points (-125 via DraftKings)

Cadeau couldn't buy a bucket against Oakland, as he scored just seven points and went 0-for-4 from 3-point range. However, he scored 19 against UConn in last year's national championship, and he shot 45.5% from the field and made eight of his nine free throw attempts.

Last year, Cadeau averaged 10.5 points per game, and in the NCAA Tournament, that number jumped to 12.3. Cadeau scored at least 12 points in four of his final five games last season, and in the regular season, he scored at least 12 points against three ranked opponents.

With Michigan likely to struggle from the floor, I expect Cadeau to drive and try to draw contact against a team that committed 17 fouls against Gardner-Webb.

Play to: Over 12.5 (-120)

Live UConn vs. Michigan odds

See the latest odds movement and more on our UConn vs. Michigan page.

Latest UConn vs. Michigan injuries

UConn:

• None

Michigan:

• None

How to watch UConn vs. Michigan

• Date: Friday, Nov. 6
• Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: TD Garden (Boston)
• TV/Streaming: TNT