Wings vs. Mercury Prediction & Expert Picks: Tonight's WNBA Odds and Best Bets
The Phoenix Mercury aim to climb the WNBA championship odds as they host the slumping Dallas Wings tonight at 10 p.m. ET from PHX Arena in Phoenix (WNBA League Pass). While No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers is expected to return for Dallas, our Wings vs. Mercury prediction backs Satou Sabally and the home team to cruise to a comfortable win.
Read to the bottom to check out our favorite Paige Bueckers player prop bet from our best sports betting apps!
💰 Wings vs. Mercury expert picks for WNBA
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✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -5 (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury (-196 via Caesars) ⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 167 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🤔 Is Paige Bueckers playing tonight vs. Mercury?
Bueckers hasn't played since May 29 after suffering a concussion during a loss to the Chicago Sky. Though she cleared the concussion protocol late last week after missing three games, the guard sat out Sunday's contest against the Minnesota Lynx due to an illness.
Wings head coach Chris Koclanes said the team is being "extremely cautious" with their young star. However, the No. 1 pick was removed from the WNBA injury report and looks set to return to the court tonight.
🏀 Wings vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
🎯 Score prediction: Mercury 80, Wings 72
The Mercury may not be on the same level as the New York Liberty or Minnesota Lynx, but the team's commitment this past offseason to transforming into a winner is paying off. Bringing in Sabally and Alyssa Thomas has been giving Phoenix an identity on both ends of the court, something Dallas still lacks.
The Wings carry the worst record in the W (1-9), the third-worst average point differential (minus-6.5), the third-worst net rating (minus-7.3), and they've suffered a double-digit defeat in three of their last four games. Plus, their only win this season came against a Connecticut Sun squad that rivals them and the Sky for the title of the WNBA's worst team.
Even with Bueckers likely back after missing four games, she won't be able to do enough for Dallas. The Wings rank in the bottom three in points allowed (88.1), defensive rating (111.1), field-goal percentage allowed (46.3%), and 3-point percentage allowed (38.3%). Sabally, who's fourth in the league in points per game (20.5), should light Dallas' defense up.
Although it's yet to be confirmed if Thomas will play for the Mercury after missing Saturday's game against the Seattle Storm, she's expected to return to the court. Her physicality and playmaking alongside Sabally are lethal. She's dealing out eight assists per game and pulling down 7.6 boards.
Phoenix also boasts one of the top defenses in the W while allowing just 78.1 points per game, largely thanks to Sabally sitting among the top 10 in defensive rating (94.8). There's just too much for Dallas to deal with to cover on the road, especially after failing to cover in four of its last five outings.
✅ Best bet: Mercury -5 (-105 via Caesars)
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👀 Star prop to watch: Paige Bueckers Under 13.5 points
Bueckers had two of her best offensive performances of the season prior to missing four games, but those came against the Sky and Connecticut Sun, the only two teams as bad as Dallas. In her four games against teams with winning records, Bueckers is averaging just 13 points.
The UConn alum's lack of 3-point production should hinder her ability to go Over 13.5 points against a stingy Mercury defense. Plus, Koclanes may want to ease Bueckers back with reduced minutes tonight after her four-game hiatus.
✅ Best odds: -104 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.62 profit)
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📈 Wings vs. Mercury odds
Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.
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