Sparks vs. Dream Prediction: WNBA Picks for Monday, July 13
The Atlanta Dream (13-10) and Los Angeles Sparks (10-11) will meet at 7 p.m. ET on Monday at the Gateway Center Arena in Atlanta on the USA Network.
Atlanta has struggled of late, losing six of its last seven, dropping in the latest WNBA championship odds. Despite this form, the Dream are favored by 8.5 points, and that seems too high as I make my Sparks vs. Dream prediction.
🏀 Sparks vs. Dream prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Sparks +8.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 0.5u → 0.45u | The Dream have failed to cover the spread in eight straight games. |
| Over 180.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.46u | These two teams are a combined 26-17 to the Over this year. |
| Nneka Ogwumike Over 16.5 points (-118 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.85u | She's cleared this line in five of her nine games without Kelsey Plum, increasing her usage rating by 4.4%. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.76 units
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🏆 Who will win Sparks vs. Dream?
I predict the Dream will win by seven points in a home meeting with the Sparks on Monday. Atlanta is 1-6 across its last seven games, with its lone victory coming at home against the Seattle Storm. The Dream are 7-2 against teams currently outside the WNBA playoff picture, which is where the Sparks sit in ninth while playing without their best player.
Score prediction: Dream 94, Sparks 87
💰 Sparks vs. Dream prediction & best bet
Sparks +8.5 (-110)
Caesars stands alone as the lone shop offering a +8.5 to back the Sparks. The rest of the market is at +7.5. I'd only play this line down to +8 for a half-unit as I don't project much of an edge.
Atlanta is in bad form right now, failing to cover the spread in eight straight contests. The Dream have a -4.4 net rating over that span and haven't covered a spread since June 20.
The Sparks, who are coming off back-to-back wins, are getting used to their identity without Kelsey Plum.
🔥 Best Sparks vs. Dream player prop bet
Nneka Ogwumike Over 16.5 points (-118)
DraftKings offers quite the discount on Sparks forward Nneka Ogwumike, listing her points prop at 16.5. The rest of our best sportsbooks are trading this total at 17.5.
To me, this is an easy Over if I believe in the Sparks. She's cleared this line in five of her nine games without Kelsey Plum, including all three wins. Ogwumike's usage rating has climbed by 4.4% since Plum's injury. She's averaging 17.2 points per game over that span.
The Dream could be without Angel Reese for the second straight game, as she was seen in a walking boot over the weekend. That could improve our chances of getting this ticket to the window.
🚀 Sparks vs. Dream same-game parlay
A parlay of my favorite Sparks vs. Dreams predictions has a +350 payout at DraftKings. These low odds speak to the correlation, as I'm banking on a competitive performance from Los Angeles. Ogwumike should be a crucial factor in the Sparks' showing, so it's worth backing her to clear her scoring line while taking the points with the road underdog.
💵 Sparks vs. Dream SGP picks
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 16.5 points (-115)
- Sparks +8.5 (-112)
- Over 180.5 (-108)
Best odds: +350 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.35u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 58-76-1 | +5.22 units ✅ | 5.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 21-15 | +4.57 units ✅ | 12.7% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-30 | -1.79 units ❌ | -54.1% ❌ |
📊 Live Sparks vs. Dream odds
📺 How to watch Sparks vs. Dream
- Date: Monday, July 13
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Gateway Center Arena (Atlanta)
- TV: USA
- Streaming: N/A
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