Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction: WNBA Picks for Monday, July 13
In a rematch from last year's WNBA semifinals, the Minnesota Lynx (17-6) will host the Phoenix Mercury (8-16) at 9 p.m. ET on Monday at the Target Center on NBC Sports Network.
Minnesota, which is a 12.5-point favorite, will be motivated to avenge last year's loss as the WNBA championship odds favorites. That's why I have no problem with backing the home team for my Mercury vs. Lynx prediction.
🏀 Mercury vs. Lynx prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx -12.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 0.5u → 0.45u | Minnesota is 7-4 against the spread as the home team this year. |
| Over 169.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.91u | The Over has hit in each of Minnesota's past four games. |
| Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3-pointers (+102 via FanDuel) | 0.5u → 0.51u | McBride has hit three-plus triples in five of her past six outings. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.87 units
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🏆 Who will win Mercury vs. Lynx?
I predict the Lynx to roll by 14 points on Monday in a revenge spot for the end of last year's semifinal matchup, in which their star player suffered an injury, from which she is still recovering. Minnesota has the highest net rating (+12.4) in home games this year, which comes one year after it posted the league's best home record. This is an obvious spot to back the Lynx.
Score prediction: Lynx 94, Mercury 80
💰 Mercury vs. Lynx prediction & best bet
Over 169.5 (-110)
With this Over climbing up to the 170s, I'm interested in grabbing the bargain at bet365. I'd also be willing to back Minnesota's team total of 91.5, though the bigger edge is on the full-game line.
The Over has come through in each of the past four Lynx games. It's not only because Minnesota is in a rhythm offensively, but it has also allowed 88.5 points per game across the last four outings. I don't expect the Mercury to reach that number, but they can clear their total in the high-70s.
There are multiple paths to this Over, which I'd play at 170.5 or better.
🔥 Best Mercury vs. Lynx player prop bet
Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3-pointers (+102)
Lynx guard Kayla McBride is on a bit of a heater right now. She's hit three or more triples in five of her past six contests, averaging four 3-pointers and 21.7 points per game over that span.
I'm comfortable backing McBride to maintain her momentum, as Phoenix has been vulnerable on defense against the 3-ball. The Mercury rank 13th in 3-point attempts allowed this year and 11th against defending spot-up shooters.
This Over costs minus-odds at some shops, but it's worth a half-unit play at a plus-money price. I'm not willing to risk much in the event of a blowout.
🚀 Mercury vs. Lynx same-game parlay
Minnesota should roll in a high-scoring affair. McBride has been in too good a form not to back, but she will play a key part in this SGP. She's coming off a game where she attempted 11 3-pointers, so I'm hoping for a similar shot diet on Monday. This game has blowout potential, so that's worth keeping in mind when assessing unit allocation for this matchup.
💵 Mercury vs. Lynx SGP picks
- Lynx -12.5 (-114)
- Over 169.5 (-114)
- Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3-pointers (+102)
Best odds: +407 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.4u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 58-76-1 | +5.22 units ✅ | 5.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 21-15 | +4.57 units ✅ | 12.7% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-30 | -1.79 units ❌ | -54.1% ❌ |
📊 Live Mercury vs. Lynx odds
📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Lynx
- Date: Monday, July 13
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Target Center (Minneapolis, Minn.)
- TV: NBC Sports Network
- Streaming: Peacock
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