🏀 WNBA MVP Odds 2026: Caitlin Clark vs. A’ja Wilson Best Bet & Power Rankings
As the WNBA season gets underway, Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson has a chance to add to her trophy cabinet as she chases a fifth MVP in her ninth season. However, despite Wilson coming off a record-setting fourth MVP last season, she's not the clear favorite by the WNBA MVP odds.
With Caitlin Clark healthy again for the Indiana Fever, the former No. 1 pick is right there with Wilson as the favorite by the latest WNBA MVP odds. But can the young star really stop Wilson's reign and become the first true guard to take home MVP since Diana Taurasi?
📊 2026 WNBA MVP favorites: Tale of the tape for Clark vs. Wilson
Given Clark's injury-riddled second season, in which she only played 13 games, I'm using her rookie campaign for the stat comparison below.
| Caitlin Clark (2024) | Metric | A'ja Wilson (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 19.2/5.7/8.4 | PPG/RPG/APG | 23.4/10.2/3.1 |
| 0.7/1.3 | BPG/SPG | 2.3/1.6 |
| 41.7%/34.4% | FG%/3P% | 50.5%/42.4% |
| 52.2%/58.3% | eFG%/TS% | 52.4%/59.6% |
| 18.8 | PER | 33.4 |
| 3.0 (2.3/0.7) | Win shares (offensive/defensive) | 9.5 (6.2/3.3) |
| 103.0 | Offensive rating | 118.6 |
| 109.0 | Defensive rating | 96.0 |
| 27.7% | Usage rate | 31.9% |
🌡️ The case for Caitlin Clark to win MVP (+260)
While the odds for Clark to win MVP at our best sports betting sites are shockingly short given that she missed two-thirds of last season, it's pretty clear that she has the talent to be the first guard since 2009 to win the WNBA's top individual honor.
A two-time Wooden Award winner at Iowa, Clark's unlimited 3-point range and penchant for making spectacular passes have flashed throughout her young WNBA career. She took home WNBA Rookie of the Year in 2024 while setting the single-season assist record (337), which was surpassed by Alyssa Thomas last year, and hitting the second-most 3-pointers in a single season (122).
And even with Clark only playing 13 games last year while dealing with quad, groin, and ankle injuries, she was on pace to finish second in the league in APG (8.8), assist rate (47.2%), and usage rate (31.5%), while sitting top 10 in made 3-pointers per game (2.2).
If Clark can be a more efficient shooter from behind the arc and clean up her turnovers, she's poised to be the most dangerous point guard in the W in 2026. And it should only help that Indiana returns both Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, the team's other two All-Star talents.
♠️ The case for A'ja Wilson to win MVP (+265)
Wilson is the best player in the WNBA, by a fairly large margin. She's won MVP more than any player in league history and led the Aces to their third championship in four seasons last year. The case for Wilson is that she has been the best player in the league for more than half a decade, and she's coming off one of the most dominant seasons of all time.
In 2025, Wilson led the league in the following categories: points per game (23.4), blocks per game (2.3, player efficiency rating (33.4), win shares (9.5), offensive win shares (6.2), defensive win shares (3.3), defensive rating (96.0), and usage rate (31.9%).
She's led the league in player efficiency rating, win shares, defensive win shares, and defensive rating for three straight seasons, while topping the league in points and offensive win shares in back-to-back years. Wilson is in the middle of the most impressive stretch in WNBA history.
Las Vegas head coach Becky Hammon knows what she has in Wilson and has built the whole ship out of what she brings to the court. The Aces also bring back every starter from last year's championship team, and that continuity should allow Wilson to continue being the best two-way player in the WNBA.
💰WNBA MVP best bet
A'ja Wilson, Aces (+265)
Wilson already holds the record for WNBA MVPs, and she's showing no signs of slowing down heading into her ninth season. The four-time MVP is on a trajectory to go down as arguably the best player in W history. There's no reason that she shouldn't be the runaway favorite to win her fifth MVP in 2026.
Beyond what Wilson has done offensively during her string of MVP wins, she's also proven to be the best defensive player in the league. She's won three WNBA Defensive Player of the Year awards since 2022 and is already top 10 all-time in blocks (533). Her ability to own the paint on both ends is transcendent.
Meanwhile, Clark is coming off a season full of injuries and has been somewhat sporadic early in her WNBA career. While her shooting range is jaw-dropping and her passing is eye-popping, she does struggle with consistency and forcing both threes and passes. It's part of the reason she's shooting just 32.9% from deep in the W and averaging 5.5 turnovers per game.
The WNBA MVP has been owned by the bigs for nearly two decades, too, so for Clark to end that streak, she would need a season that rivals what Wilson has been doing since 2020. I don't see that happening this year, which is why I'm betting Wilson at +265 to win a third straight MVP.
WNBA MVP power rankings
| Rank | Player | Team | WNBA MVP odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A'ja Wilson | Las Vegas Aces | +265 via DraftKings |
| 2 | Napheesa Collier | Minnesota Lynx | +1000 via FanDuel |
| 3 | Caitlin Clark | Indiana Fever | +260 via FanDuel |
| 4 | Alyssa Thomas | Phoenix Mercury | +2200 via Caesars |
| 5 | Paige Bueckers | Dallas Wings | +2000 via FanDuel |
| 6 | Sabrina Ionescu | New York Liberty | +3000 via DraftKings |
| 7 | Breanna Stewart | New York Liberty | +1300 via DraftKings |
| 8 | Aliyah Boston | Indiana Fever | +10000 via DraftKings |
| 9 | Jackie Young | Las Vegas Aces | +7500 via FanDuel |
| 10 | Allisha Gray | Atlanta Dream | +4000 via DraftKings |
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