Fever vs. Aces Prediction: WNBA Picks for Sunday, July 5

The Las Vegas Aces will be without A'ja Wilson today when they host the Indiana Fever, which is missing Caitlin Clark. Las Vegas remains a 3.5-point betting favorite without Wilson, but my Fever vs. Aces prediction is that Indiana is undervalued and the total (181.5) might be too high in a matchup without the league's biggest stars.

Tipoff from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN, Disney+).

🏀 Fever vs. Aces prediction: WNBA picks

See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.72 units

🏆 Who will win Fever vs. Aces?

Despite being 3.5-point underdogs, I project the Fever to pull off the upset with a one-point win over the Aces on Sunday. Indiana went 20-19 without Clark last year, including a 4-4 mark in the playoffs that ended with a Game 5 loss to Las Vegas in the semifinals. With the Aces missing Wilson, Indiana has a chance to avenge last year's result.

Score prediction: Fever 89, Aces 88

💰 Fever vs. Aces prediction & best bet

Fever +3.5 (-112)

Compared to Las Vegas, Indiana is more comfortable playing without its best player.

Clark has missed 31 regular-season games in her WNBA career. According to Databallr, the Fever have a +2.2 net rating in 1,774 minutes without Clark since 2024. Their defensive rating has actually been four points better.

The Aces, meanwhile, have a -8.4 net rating in 949 minutes without Wilson over that same span. Their net rating is -12.1 in 147 minutes without her this year.

I'll take the points, but I think Indiana pulls off the upset on Sunday.

🔥 Best Fever vs. Aces player prop bet

Aliyah Boston Under 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (-111)

The market has often overrated Aliyah Boston's output when she's playing without Clark. It's easy to see why people expect the Fever's second-best player to step up, but the pairing with Clark makes life easier for her.

Since 2024, Boston has played 42 games without Clark. She's only cleared this PRA line of 30.5 in 10 of those contests. Boston averages 1.1 fewer points and 0.3 fewer rebounds without Clark.

Despite this track record, Boston's PRA line is trading at 30.5 after being listed in the high 20s for much of the 2026 campaign. I think that's too big of an adjustment, which is why a shop like bet365 has already dropped this total to 29.5.

I'll take the Under at 30.5 or better.

🚀 Fever vs. Aces same-game parlay

As evidenced by the +700 payout on this Fever vs. Aces parlay, this is the type of game where we should be taking advantage of the variance. With each team missing its best player, the market can't properly price most markets. That's why I'm taking the extra value with Indiana's moneyline price tag for this parlay, as I see a path to an upset in my projected game script.

💵 My betting record for WNBA picks

All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.

📊 Live Fever vs. Aces odds

📺 How to watch Fever vs. Aces 

• Date: Sunday, July 5
• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: Disney+