Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, July 5

My Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction features a moneyline, two player props, and a same-game parlay. Tail these MLB picks before catching today's first pitch at 2:30 p.m. ET on Peacock from Wrigley Field (Chicago), with oddsmakers remaining confident in the Cubs as a sizable home favorite to avoid getting swept.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Cubs picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.96 units | Max profit: 3.31 units

🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Cubs?

The Cubs pulled themselves out of a big slump to become one of the top teams in the National League in June. Their inability to produce runs against the Cardinals in this series should turn against Matthew Liberatore, who has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his previous four starts. 

Chicago also benefits from Javier Assad taking the mound. He's only lost once as a starter, which should instill confidence throughout a cold lineup that has enough talent to take advantage of a bad pitcher like Liberatore.

Cubs avoid the sweep with a 9-5 win on Sunday. 

Score prediction: Cubs 9, Cardinals 5

💰 Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction & best bet

Cubs moneyline (-146)

Let's dive into Liberatore's numbers to justify laying juice on the Cubs moneyline. The Cardinals' starter ranks in the 2nd percentile for pitching run value (-17) and is bottom-10 for xERA (5.55), xBA (.282), Avg Exit Velo (91.1) and fastball run value (-9) in 2026. Simply put, Liberatore has been horrendous.

Chicago's lineup needs a boost and Liberatore appears to be the remedy. The Cardinals are also swinging a hot bat right now, putting pressure on Assad to pitch with more consistency, ranked 57th in pitching run value (2).

Get the best price on the Cubs moneyline at -146 odds on FanDuel. 

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Cubs player prop bet

Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125)

Cubs 2B/SS Nico Hoerner has amassed 84 hits, 35 runs, and 36 RBIs in 2026. Hoerner enters Sunday's game against the Cardinals with a hit in four of his last five starts. 

We've already highlighted how poorly Liberatore's pitching has been this season. Now, Hoerner, who is 89th percentile in xBA (.284) and even better at squared-up rate (35.6), whiff rate (11.0) and strikeout rate (7.6) gets a prime opportunity to cash over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs.

All we need is for the rest of the Cubs lineup to return to form and get on base. Head to FanDuel for the best price on Hoerner in this market at -125 odds. 

💣 Cardinals vs. Cubs home run prediction

Seiya Suzuki to hit a home run (+525)

Seiya Suzuki rates out as average in his barrel rate (8.8) and hard hit percentage (41.5), but he's elite when it comes to finding the sweet spot on the bat. He'll get two, maybe three, plate appearances with Liberatore on the mound, facing a pitcher who has allowed 17 home runs. That's ninth-most in the National League. 

Winds at Wrigley Field are expected to be blowing in, so Suzuki will need to lean on his sweet spot launch angle contact to drive the ball far enough for his 14th home run of the year. He does have a home run in his last three starts, which came at Wrigley. 

Bet on Suzuki's home run prop at +525 odds on DraftKings.

🚀 Cardinals vs. Cubs same-game parlay

The 1+ hit same-game parlays have been working for me, so let's keep it rolling with each lineup's star player today. Pete Crow-Armstrong has a five-game hit streak, while Jordan Walker has his own four-game hit streak intact. 

💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Cubs: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I'm stubborn and continuing to back the Cubs with a 1.46 unit play on their moneyline. They haven't been swept in a long time and this would be a key win to stay ahead of the Cardinals in the N.L. Central. 

Another 1.25 units will be staked on Cubs 2B/SS Nico Hoerner to go Over 1.5 H+R+RBIs due to his plate efficiency. Scale it down to 0.25 units for a home run prop on Seiya Suzuki to net over a unit of profit. 

Finally, one more unit staked on Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jordan Walker to each record a hit for my latest SGP. This means we're staking 3.96 units to win 4.45 units of profit. 

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Cubs odds

The run total has stayed flat at 8.0 since opening, while the Cubs have grown shorter in the moneyline market, rising up to -157 on certain shops.

Public action is fairly split on this game, with 60 percent of moneyline bets on the Cubs and 68 percent of public wagers on over 8.0. 

📈 Cardinals vs. Cubs betting trends

🚑 Cardinals vs. Cubs injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Cubs

• Date: Sunday, July 5
• First pitch: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago, Ill.)
• Streaming: Peacock
• Cardinals starter: Matthew Liberatore (4-5, 5.33 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Javier Assad (6-1, 4.53 ERA)