MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (July 5)
The Colorado Rockies hit the road for seven straight games next week leading up to the All-Star Break, so I am not missing an opportunity to wager on one of their sluggers batting at Coors Field as part of my home run predictions today.
Jake McCarthy is amid his hottest stretch of hitting on the season, and he is a focal point of my MLB home run picks. I also fade the struggling Matthew Liberatore with a wager on a Cubs left-handed bat and round out my four-pack of plays with former home run derby runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. and rookie Esmerlyn Valdez. I'm looking to stay hot, generating over 20 units of profit on my MLB wagers over the last month alone.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 5
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez to hit a home run (+550 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.38u | No player had a higher OPS over the previous 20 days entering the weekend than Valdez. |
| Michael Busch to hit a home run (+750 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.88u | Busch's slash line numbers at home trump those on the road. |
| Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a home run (+500 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.25u | Aaron Nola has allowed two home runs in each of his last four starts |
| Jake McCarthy to hit a home run (+800 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 2u | McCarthy is batting .321 with a .954 OPS at Coors Field |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 6.51 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Esmerlyn Valdez (+550)
After going 3-for-5 on Friday, Esmerlyn Valdez had the highest OPS in the majors over the previous 20 days. He has now extended his hitting streak to nine games, while batting .515 with eight extra-base hits (four home runs) and 11 RBI over that span. He stayed hot after a 66% hard-hit rate in his first 45 MLB plate appearances.
Valdez faces a Nationals pitching staff that allowed just 20 runs over a 5-1 stretch after Friday’s win. But Miles Mikolas has reverse splits with a slugging percentage 56 points higher and a worse home run rate against right-handed batters.
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
📡 SBR Edge: A matchup of mashers
The Pirates and Nationals meet in a surprise matchup of two of MLB's top three offenses in runs scored, and they've combined for 22 runs in the first two games of this series.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Michael Busch (+750)
Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore is coming off his first start since May 31 allowing one or fewer runs. But that also came against a Braves offense that entered the weekend ranked 30th in runs, average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs since June 9. While his 50% whiff rate was encouraging, this is a much taller task against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Michael Busch loves hitting at home, where his slugging percentage is 107 points higher than on the road. He is 2-for-7 with a home run in his career off Liberatore, who had allowed seven home runs in four starts before facing Atlanta. Liberatore’s 15th percentile barrel rate and eighth percentile xBA should get him in trouble in this road start.
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
💥 More home run predictions for Sunday
Our Matt MacKay targets another Cubs player in his Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction.
Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+500)
Though Bobby Witt Jr. remains a top-three AL MVP candidate at the best sports betting sites, this wager is more of a fade of Aaron Nola than anything else. Nola has pitched to a 6.02 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last two seasons. He has allowed multiple home runs in four consecutive starts, and his 1.7 and 2.0 HR/9 rates over the last two years are the worst of his 12-year career.
Witt Jr. is 3-for-6 with a home run against Nola. He followed a 20-game home run drought with three home runs in his last seven, and I expect him to jump on a Nola fastball (.791 slugging percentage against) or sinker (.645 slugging percentage against).
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
💵 More HR picks today
I target a Dodgers outfielder in my Padres vs. Dodgers prediction.
Home run pick: Jake McCarthy (+800)
Jake McCarthy had a 15-game hit streak in June, during which he batted .353 with seven multi-hit games. In Friday’s series opener, two of his four hits were homers, and he logged a career-high six RBI. In the process, he became just the fourth player with a leadoff home run and a grand slam in the same game in the Wild Card era (since 1994).
McCarthy entered the weekend with three homers and 10 RBI in his last two games. He also batted .348 with 17 extra-base hits and 28 RBI in 27 games since May 30.
McCarthy gets a great matchup at home against Tyler Mahle, who has pitched to an 8.79 ERA and allowed seven home runs in 28 ⅔ road innings.
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
💥 More MLB player props today
MacKay features Caleb Durbin and Zach Neto in his Red Sox vs. Angels prediction.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Esmerlyn Valdez to hit a home run (+550)
- Michael Busch to hit a home run (+750)
- Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a home run (+500)
- Jake McCarthy to hit a home run (+600)
Best odds: +231950 via bet365 (0.1u -> 231.95u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 177-254-1 | +53.22 units ✅ | +19.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 106-206 | +36.16 units ✅ | +23.2% ✅ |
