Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, July 5

The Los Angeles Dodgers own a five-game winning streak against the San Diego Padres and look to finish the sweep at home tonight. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock), with the starting pitching matchup between JP Sears and Emmet Sheehan. The Dodgers are a -220 betting favorite.

My Padres vs. Dodgers prediction expects San Diego to stay close, given that it had big leads in the first two games of the series. San Diego slugger Ty France is a great value pick to go yard, but I’m also expecting big things offensively from L.A.’s Kyle Tucker to round out my MLB picks, which have generated more than 20 units of profit over the last month.

⚾ Padres vs. Dodgers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.41 units

🏆 Who will win Padres vs. Dodgers?

If I am backing San Diego to cover the +1.5 runline, I will also take a flier on it winning outright and inching back closer to .500.

Score prediction: Padres 4, Dodgers 3

💰 Padres vs. Dodgers prediction & best bet

Padres +1.5 (-110)

Los Angeles is amid a five-game winning streak against San Diego, while the Padres are mired in their first eight-game losing streak since a 10-game skid in 2013. But the Padres had leads of 6-0 and 3-0 in the first two games of this series, so I’m banking on them finally putting a game away after turning the game over to their best relievers.

San Diego’s bullpen entered the weekend ninth in ERA and fourth in xERA, and was also in the top 10 in xFIP and K/9 rate. Meanwhile, 26 of Los Angeles’ 90 games have been one-run games.

🔥 Best Padres vs. Dodgers player prop bet

Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109)

Kyle Tucker entered this series slashing .476/.607/.607 with five RBI and a 6:7 K:BB ratio over his previous six games.

A big reason for his recent success is his statistics in hitter or neutral counts. Tucker was in such situations in 64.5% of his plate appearances from 2024-25, in which he batted .302. But in the last six-game stretch, though he was in that split in just 57.1% of his plate appearances, he was batting a whopping .778.

Over the first 76 games this season, Tucker had a 48.7% swing percentage, 73.5% in-zone swing percentage, 23.6% whiff rate, 25.5% chase rate, and 39.4% hard-hit rate. But over that six-game stretch, he was swinging 43.2% of the time with a 70.3% in-zone swing percentage, 19.6% whiff rate, 11.1% chase rate, and 46.7% hard-hit rate.

💣 Padres vs. Dodgers home run prediction

Ty France to hit a home run (+630)

Ty France entered the weekend on pace for 22 home runs and 66 RBI. That home run total would squeak by his previous career-high of 20 set in 2022. But compared to that career-best year, France’s slugging percentage and OPS this year were on pace to be 56 and 43 points better, respectively.

France has three hits in a small four-at-bat sample size against Emmet Sheehan. Sheehan allowed six home runs in 21 innings in June, and has more starts with multiple home runs allowed (four) than homer-less starts (three) in his last 10 outings. 

Sheehan’s 17th percentile barrel rate and 25th percentile ground ball rate play poorly even against a Padres lineup that ranks 22nd in home runs.

🚀 Padres vs. Dodgers same-game parlay

This three-leg same-game parlay works well even if Kyle Tucker goes over his projected hits/runs/RBI total, as there are still plenty of ways the Padres could stay within one run or win the game outright. San Diego has won outright two of the last three games where France drove in a run, and I am swapping my home run wager for his RBI prop to give this SGP more of a chance of cashing.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Padres vs. Dodgers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Since I am getting the equivalent of a standard pick'em moneyline bet to back San Diego's +1.5 runline odds (-110, 52.38% implied probability), I decided to go that safer route instead of swinging for the fences with its +183 odds to win outright. San Diego would be right in this series if not for blowing a six-run lead in the opener, which was Los Angeles' largest comeback against San Diego in head-to-head matchup history (and the Dodgers' largest comeback win overall since 2022).

I may take a look at San Diego's moneyline odds after the lineups come out and if Shohei Ohtani is ruled out for a second straight game with a biceps injury.

📊 Live Padres vs. Dodgers odds

The best MLB betting sites have a wide 18-cent gap between Los Angeles' shortest -220 moneyline odds (shared by BetMGM, FanDuel, and Caesars) and the -238 odds at the high end of the market at bet365. Most line movement has gone slightly in San Diego's favor, as much as six cents (bet365 opened the highest of all sportsbooks at -244).

The total is currently at 10 only at bet365, with the rest of the market at 9.5. Both DraftKings and BetMGM did raise their O/Us from 9.5 to 10 briefly overnight, but that didn't last long and the line quickly returned to its opening number in both cases.

📈 Padres vs. Dodgers betting trends

🚑 Padres vs. Dodgers injuries

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Dodgers

• Date: Sunday, July 5
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock
• Padres starter: JP Sears (1-1, 6.97 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Emmet Sheehan (4-5, 5.08 ERA)