Aces vs. Mercury Predictions Tonight: WNBA Best Bets & Odds for Friday

A potential WNBA playoff preview takes place in Phoenix tonight as the Aces square off against the Mercury in a highly anticipated matchup.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: August 15, 2025 7:00 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Aces vs. Mercury Predictions Tonight: WNBA Best Bets & Odds for Aug. 15 — Pictured: Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) smiles as I make my Aces vs. Mercury predictions. Photo by Michael Chow / The Republic via Imagn Images.

Las Vegas and Phoenix have split the season series to date, but my Aces vs. Mercury predictions expect the hosts to get a leg up on their Western Conference foes tonight.

The Mercury are 4.5-point betting favorites at the best sports betting sites, with a total set at O/U 168.5 points. Tipoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (ION) from PHX Arena in Phoenix.

Both teams are WNBA championship odds contenders heading into this potential first-round playoff preview. Las Vegas currently sits in the No. 5 seed, trailing Phoenix (No. 4 seed) by just one game.

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury ML (-185 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 166.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Aces vs. Mercury?

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-185 via BetMGM)

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The outlook has been trending up for Las Vegas, but Phoenix has been the better team for much of the year. The Mercury also come into this matchup with decent form after winning three of the last four, with Alyssa Thomas leading the way.

I expect Phoenix to remind everyone of the gap between these two teams on Friday.

💰 Aces vs. Mercury prediction & WNBA best bet

Pictured Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally reacts as we look at our Aces vs. Mercury predictions. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn.

🏀 Mercury -4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)

Given the recent trajectory of the Aces, I wouldn’t be surprised if this number moves toward the Mercury before tipoff. But I’m willing to back Phoenix at -4.5 or better in a four-star play.

These two teams have split both meetings in this season series, but the Mercury have posed more problems than the Aces. Thomas has logged 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 21 assists across the two matchups against Las Vegas.

She became the first player in WNBA history to record three consecutive triple-doubles during a three-game win streak last week. Thomas failed to make it four straight in Sunday’s loss, but the Mercury have enjoyed four days off to prepare for this clash.

Alternatively, Las Vegas is coming off a hard-fought win over the New York Liberty on Wednesday. This will be the Aces’ fourth game in a week.

I’ll lay the points with the rested (and better) team.

👀 Aces vs. Mercury player prop

⛹️‍♀️ Alyssa Thomas double-double ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -170 via bet365 ($10 to win $5.88)

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It’s tempting to take the +475 on Thomas’ triple-double odds, but she’s become a reliable double-double threat lately. Thomas has recorded a double-double in seven of her past eight games.

This line is as high as -190 at FanDuel, indicating the bargain at bet365.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.