2024 US Open Expert Picks & Odds: Winner Predictions & Tournament Props
The fourth and final Grand Slam of the 2024 tennis season is upon us as the world’s best tennis players head to Flushing Meadows to vie for the US Open title.
Since Serena Williams dominated en route to a three-peat from 2012-14, six women (Flavia Pennetta, Sloane Stephens, Naomi Osaka, Bianca Andreescu, Emma Raducanu, and Coco Gauff) won their first Grand Slams at the US Open.
And of those six, Osaka is the only player who has won another major.
While Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal (who withdrew from this year’s US Open) have combined for five US Open titles since 2014, Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, and Daniil Medvedev have also won the last major of the season, their only major titles.
Our US Open expert picks and odds focus on the predicted winner on both sides of the draw.
Carlos Alcaraz, who won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open in 2022, and Aryna Sabalenka are the consensus US Open odds favorite across our best sports betting apps.
US Open expert picks
(Odds via our best sports betting sites as of Aug. 24; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Men’s winner: Novak Djokovic (+260 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Women’s winner: Aryna Sabalenka (+250 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Taylor Fritz to win 3rd quarter draw (+700 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jessica Pegula to win first quarter draw (+460 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
US Open Men’s winner
Novak Djokovic ⭐⭐⭐
I believe it is imperative to have some exposure to either Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic if you are putting together a portfolio of Men's US Open picks, and given the two players' draws and head-to-head results, the smart money is on Djokovic.
Djokovic has won three of the last four meetings against Alcaraz, two of which were on hard courts in Cincinnati and at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2023. It is also hard to trust Alcaraz after playing his "worst match of [his] career" against Gael Monfils last week.
Djokovic comes into New York without a Grand Slam victory in the calendar year for the first time in 14 years.
That added motivation, along with coming off securing his first Olympic gold, puts him in a solid position to win the US Open. Plus, his draw has him avoiding Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner until the final.
Djokovic has a wide range of prices at our top sports betting sites, and his implied probability of winning his 25th Grand Slam title is as high as 30.77% at bet365 (+225 odds).
I am backing Djokovic to win the US Open at BetMGM’s +260 odds (the best on offer) where a $10 wager would return $26 in profits.
Best odds: +260 via BetMGM | Implied probability 27.78%
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US Women’s winner
Aryna Sabalenka ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sabalenka has reached the semifinal or final in her last three US Open appearances. The world no. 2 endured a challenging first half of the year after winning her second straight Australian Open title, suffering a shoulder injury that prevented her from playing at Wimbledon.
However, doubts over Sabalenka's were squashed when she steamrolled all comers en route to the Cincinnati Open title last week.
Sabalenka was dominant and didn't drop a set, with four of her five wins coming against top-30 opponents, including World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the semifinal.
bet365 offers +210 odds, while BetMGM has the best price at +250, which yields an additional $4 profit on a $10 bet.
At BetMGM, a winning $10 wager profits $25.
Best odds: +250 via BetMGM | Implied probability 28.57%
US Open prop picks
Taylor Fritz to win 3rd quarter draw ⭐⭐⭐
No American man has won a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick won the US Open in 2003, but given the success of Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul reaching the Wimbledon quarterfinals, a breakthrough could be on the horizon.
Avoiding the "Big Three" of Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic in his quarter, Fritz has a favorable draw.
FanDuel gives an American man a 60% chance of reaching the semifinals with its -150 odds, and DraftKings also gives any American player +900 odds to reach the final and +1400 odds to win the tournament.
While the latter two bets are good ways to get in on Fritz, as that also gives exposure to Paul and Frances Tiafoe, Fritz’s +700 odds at FanDuel to reach the semifinals are too good to pass up.
Compared to BetMGM’s +600 odds for this market, bettors would return $10 more in profit for every $10 wager ($70 compared to $60) by making this play at FanDuel.
Best odds: +700 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 12.50%
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Jessica Pegula to win first quarter draw ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is Pegula's 23rd Grand Slam appearance, and her best result is the quarterfinals, achieved at each major. Her record is 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals.
Should Pegula again reach the quarters, she could face Swiatek, whom she has beaten three times in her career, all on outdoor hard courts (2019 Washington DC, 2023 United Cup, 2023 Montreal).
Pegula is in the best form of any player ranked fifth or lower on the odds leaderboard, as she successfully defended her National Bank Open title in Canada (she dropped just one set in the tournament) and made a second straight final in Cincinnati.
If she is not too fatigued from those deep runs, a quarterfinal win over the world no. 1 in her birth state of New York would be the perfect storyline in a run to her first Grand Slam semifinal.
Pegula has a one-in-four chance to reach the semifinals based on bet365’s +300 odds.
The best value is at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $56.
Best odds: +460 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 17.86%
US Open info
- When: Aug. 26 to Sept. 8
- Where: Flushing Meadows (New York)
- Defending champions: Novak Djokovic, Coco Gauff
- Favorites: Carlos Alcaraz (+220 via FanDuel), Aryna Sabalenka (+250 via BetMGM)
US Open expert picks made Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
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