Storm vs. Sun Predictions, Picks & Odds: Alyssa Thomas to Feast in WNBA Matchup

Check out our top Storm-Sun predictions and picks for Thursday's WNBA matchup in Wilkes-Barre Township.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: July 6, 2023 4:50 PM EDT • 4 minute read

For the lone WNBA game scheduled for Thursday, the Connecticut Sun will host the Seattle Storm. Read on for our Storm-Sun prediction based on the top WNBA odds.

A pair of teams on opposite ends of the WNBA regular-season standings are set to face off Thursday. The Connecticut Sun (12-5) can jump up to the No. 2 spot with a win over the Seattle Storm (4-12), who are firmly sitting 11th out of 12 teams in the league.

The Storm have been more competitive than expected, which includes their 8-7-1 clip against the spread so far in 2023. However, they've failed to cover during their current three-game skid.

Connecticut (8-8-1 ATS) is in a good position to end its two-game slide as a double-digit favorite at home.

Here is our best Storm-Sun prediction (odds via FanDuel; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Storm vs. Sun prediction

Alyssa Thomas to score 15-plus points (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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My model predicts the Sun won't struggle to take care of business in this matchup, projecting an 89-75 win for the home team. That means there's likely value on the spread, particularly with the 9.5-point line at BetMGM when the rest of the best sports betting apps are sitting at 10 or 10.5.

Instead, I like the idea of betting on Connecticut's best player in a favorable matchup, especially when my numbers expect the team to score more than its average of 83.9 points per game. Alyssa Thomas, who is third in the WNBA MVP odds, has been given a price of -106 to finish with 15-plus points through FanDuel.

Thomas ranks 27th in the league while averaging 14.4 points per game, despite shooting just 44.1% from the floor. She's getting 67.8% of her scoring production from points in the paint in 2023, ranking fourth in the league among players who have played at least 15 games, according to WNBA.com.

That bodes heading into this matchup, as the Storm surrender the most points in the paint per game in the league (40.6). That mark is up to 46 points per contest over the last three outings, so Seattle's defense isn't improving in this area.

Thomas hasn't cleared this mark in three straight outings, and she only recorded 13 points during her road meeting with the Storm on June 20. But I'm expecting her to get more looks near the rim in this matchup.

Storm vs. Sun best odds

FanDuel (-106)

DraftKings	FanDuel	FanDuel alternate
Over 14.5 points	Over 14.5 points	To score 15-plus points
-120	-113	-106

Only select books among our best sports betting sites even offer WNBA player props, but this price discrepancy is worth pointing out. FanDuel offers the best value on the Over in the points prop market, though shopping in the alternate points market leads to a better deal.

FanDeal is featuring a -106 vig on Thomas to score 15-plus points in its alternate market, and she's one of three players listed there. For context, Thomas is getting a +320 value to finish with 20-plus points, and +1020 to record 25-plus points.

Take advantage of the -106 offering on Thomas before the number inevitably moves closer to the actual points prop price.

Storm vs. Sun game info

Date: Thursday, July 6, 7 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Wilkes-Barre Township, PA

Storm-Sun pick made 07/06/2023 at 11:40 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.