Sky vs. Aces Prediction, Expert Pick & WNBA Odds: Wilson, Reese Duel in the Desert

A'ja Wilson and the title favorite Aces host the Sky and rising star Angel Reese, who looks to start a new double-double streak.

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: July 16, 2024 10:00 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) shoots the ball as we offer our best Sky vs. Aces prediction and expert pick for Tuesday's WNBA matchup. — Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) shoots the ball against LA Sparks forward Dearica Hamby (5) at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Photo by Kirby Lee / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

Two of the WNBA's biggest stars face off Tuesday when the Las Vegas Aces (16-7) host the Chicago Sky (9-14) at Michelob ULTRA Arena. The Aces are favored by 12.5 points across our best sports betting sites and headline our Sky vs. Aces prediction.

A'ja Wilson leads Las Vegas into Tuesday's matchup, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET, as the consensus title favorite by the latest WNBA championship odds, having won 10 of its last 11 games.

Conversely, the Sky are coming off back-to-back losses to the Liberty and have dropped five of eight dating back to a June 27 home loss to the Aces, even as Angel Reese has been making history.

Sky vs. Aces prediction, expert pick

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

Under 170.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Aces have recently been on a roll, winning 10 of their last 11 games while outscoring opponents by 10.2 points on average. They've also won four straight with an average margin of 12.5 points after Sunday's 12-point win over the Washington Mystics.

None of those marks exceed the -12.5 spread across our best sportsbooks, though I'd rather not bet against this group with the way it's played in recent weeks. That's why I prefer to target the Under and back Las Vegas' resurgent defense.

Across this four-game win streak, the Aces have allowed 77.8 points per game with the WNBA's second-best defensive rating (92.0). Their games have fallen short of this prop total in three straight tries, and this team looks like a different squad defensively than the one that struggled mightily earlier this season.

Sky struggling to score

On the other hand, Chicago's offense has the league's second-worst by efficiency (92.4) over the same four-game period.

The Sky scored just 67 points in Saturday's 81-67 loss to the New York Liberty, marking their fourth straight game below 80 points. That contest also saw Reese's historic double-double streak—which had reached 15 games—come to an end when she scored just eight points on 3-for-13 shooting.

Wilson is a two-time WNBA Defensive Player of the Year who can make life miserable for Reese down low and also limit driving lanes for Chennedy Carter, who quietly ranks fourth in scoring (19.9 PPG) over the last month. She scored 20 points in her team's 95-83 loss to the Aces in late June.

I don't expect her or the Sky to replicate those offensive numbers against Las Vegas, which has since reached a new level defensively. And if Chicago's defense holds up as it has most nights since that loss, this game should fall short of this fairly generous total.

Best odds: -110 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Sky vs. Aces odds & game info

When: Tuesday, July 16
Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET
Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Paradise, Nev.)
How to watch: Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network, Marquee Sports Network (Chicago)
Favorite: Aces -12.5 (-115 via Betway)

Sky-Aces predictions made Tuesday at 5:10 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.