Oscars Odds at Prediction Markets 2027: The Odyssey Among Favorites for Biggest Awards
Though the 99th Oscars aren't until March 14, 2027, we're looking at the latest Oscars odds at prediction trading market Kalshi for all of the major categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is the first true contender to release, and after rave reviews from both critics and general audiences, the film is favored in numerous key categories.
Kalshi is one of our best Oscars trading sites, and it is one of the only platforms that has markets available for categories outside of Best Picture at this time. Without further ado, here are my latest Oscars predictions.
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๐ฎ Oscars Best Picture odds 2027
It's no surprise to see The Odyssey leading the pack early in Oscar season. Nolan's newest film has lived up to the hype, and it exceeded box office expectations. Considering how much love the Academy has shown Nolan in the past, there's no doubt that this film will be a key contender until Oscar Sunday.
That said, this race is far from over. Dune: Part Three currently has the second-highest probability, just ahead of Alejandro G. Inarritu's Digger and Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine. Other key titles in the mix are Project Hail Mary and companion pieces The Adventures of Cliff Booth and The Social Reckoning.
| Film | Chance | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 49% | +104 |
| Dune: Part Three | 14% | +614 |
| Digger | 8% | +1150 |
| Wild Horse Nine | 7% | +1328 |
| Project Hail Mary | 6% | +1566 |
| The Black Ball | 6% | +1566 |
| Elsinore | 4% | +2400 |
| Fjord | 4% | +2400 |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 2% | +4900 |
| The Social Reckoning | 2% | +4900 |
Best Picture favorite: The Odyssey (49%)
Nolan has been nominated for eight Oscars in his career, and he finally broke through with two wins for Best Picture and Best Director for Oppenheimer. Considering his recent Oscar success and the fact that the Academy has shown him love since Memento all the way back in 2000, it's not surprising to see his latest epic favored after an incredible release.
The Odyssey stars Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong'o, Zendaya, and Charlize Theron, to name a few. With an estimated budget of $250 million, this is Nolan's most expensive film to date, which is saying a lot considering his filmography. It's also the first film to be shot entirely on IMAX's 70 mm film cameras.
When I first started covering the 2027 Oscars in May, I highlighted that The Odyssey was going to see a major surge in mid-July after releasing to great reviews. Sure enough, that's what has happened. The film had a probability as low as 22% in mid-May, but now has a 49% chance of winning this award. This is a really high price this far out. While The Odyssey could end up winning Best Picture and should be favored, I'd wait until the hype dies down and other contenders release before trading.
Best Picture prediction: Wild Horse Nine (7%)
The last time Martin McDonagh made a movie, it received nine Oscar nominations. However, that film, The Banshees of Inisherin, left Oscar night empty-handed. Now, McDonagh is back with Wild Horse Nine, a film starring Sam Rockwell (who won his first Oscar starring in McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and John Malkovich.
Wild Horse Nine is another black comedy, which is McDonagh's bread and butter. While those types of films don't tend to win Oscars, the number of nominations that McDonagh has received for previous works makes me confident that Wild Horse Nine will be a favorite come Oscar Sunday. And with a Nov. 6 release date, the film is positioned well to peak at the right time for Oscar voters.
๐ Best Director Oscars odds 2027
Best Director favorite: Christopher Nolan - The Odyssey (68%)
Nolan has been nominated for Best Director just twice in his career, but he managed to pick up the win for his work on Oppenheimer. The Odyssey was filmed on location in Greece, Scotland, the Western Sahara, and Malta, just to name a few. Choosing to shoot on location and use practical effects could be what helps Nolan separate himself from the competition again. After all, it's what he's been praised for throughout his entire career.
I don't want to sound like a broken record, but I can't help but highlight just how bad this price is. It's the summer, and the way traders are acting, he already has this award locked up. He may end up winning this award, especially considering how great The Odyssey is, but at 68%, there is no value in backing him right now. Wait until other films release and take the attention away from The Odyssey, even if only temporarily.
Best Director prediction: Alejandro G. Inarritu - Digger (12%)
Oscar voters love Inarritu, as shown by his back-to-back Best Director wins for Birdman and The Revenant in 2015 and 2016. Since The Revenant, Inarritu has only directed one feature-length film. Though the film, Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, was poorly received, it still received an
Oscar nomination.
His newest film, Digger, is a black comedy starring Tom Cruise, Jesse Plemons, and Sandra Huller. Based on the logline, "The most powerful man in the world races to prove he is humanity's savior before the disaster he unleashed destroys everything," this movie feels like it's going to have a very similar tone to Birdman.
Digger currently has the third-highest probability to win Best Picture, but Inarritu's chances of winning have steadily increased over the last few months. With Cruise starring in the leading role, there's no way this movie doesn't maintain hype into the winter. Even if Inarritu doesn't win, get in on him now, as I expect a surge in his probability when the film releases in early October.
๐ Best Actor Oscars odds 2027
Best Actor winner: Tom Cruise - Digger (37%)
Will this be the year that Cruise finally wins his Oscar? He's been nominated three times as an actor, but he hasn't earned a nomination since 1999's Magnolia. Cruise has starred in numerous iconic films throughout his career, and he has built an incredible reputation in the industry. After receiving an Honorary Award this past year, I think we could see him emerge victorious in a competitive category in 2027.
Cruise is the star of Digger, and if the film lives up to the hype, it would be surprising to see Cruise fall out of the mix in this category. And remember, Inarritu is incredible at getting the best work from his actors. He very nearly led Michael Keaton to Best Actor for Birdman, and he directed Leonardo DiCaprio to his first Oscar for The Revenant. This is one category where I think the favorite is going to remain the same throughout the entirety of awards season.
Best Actor prediction: Matt Damon - The Odyssey (31%)
No one has benefited more from The Odyssey's release than Matt Damon. In mid-June, Damon wasn't on anyone's radar to win this award, and now he has the second-highest probability. While I think he's going to cool considerably, it's worth highlighting all of the positives surrounding him.
First, Nolan directed Cillian Murphy to a Best Actor win for Oppenheimer just a few years ago. Second, if the momentum for The Odyssey remains, then Damon could ride that to a victory. And finally, Damon was a frontrunner to win Best Actor for The Martian, and he was nominated previously for Good Will Hunting and Invictus. The Academy loves him, and if Digger disappoints, then this could be Damon's award to lose, especially since Andrew Scott, who is the third-favorite, is being praised for Pressure, a movie that was a box office disaster.
๐ Best Actress Oscars odds 2027
Best Actress favorite: Julianne Moore - The Debut (27%)
Out of nowhere, Julianne Moore is the favorite to win Best Actress. I ultimately think that this will be short-lived, but it's clear that traders are excited about her role in Jesse Eisenberg's upcoming musical comedy. Moore is an Oscar winner (Still Alice), with five total nominations under her belt. However, she hasn't been nominated since winning in 2014.
The Debut will premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, then be released on Dec. 11. This timing definitely favors Moore during Oscar season, but the truth is, we don't even know if the movie or Moore's performance will be well-received. I'm not willing to take a chance on that level of unknown, especially when there is already a proven powerhouse performance in this race.
Best Actress prediction: Inde Navarrette (19%)
In my opinion, the only reason that Navarrette isn't the favorite for this award is because traders are still unsure if she will be nominated for lead or supporting actress. For what it's worth, she currently has an 11% chance of winning Best Supporting Actress.
Navarrette's performance in Obsession is absolutely stunning. If you've seen the movie, it's likely you haven't stopped thinking about some of the more absurd scenes where Navarrette commits fully and never relents. But will the Oscars really reward a newcomer in a field loaded with Academy favorites? One thing definitely working in Navarrette's favor is that Amy Madigan won for a bizarre horror film role last year. And with Obsession one of the biggest box office surprises of all time, there's no way voters won't be discussing the movie and Navarrette's performance deep into Oscar season.
What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2027 Oscars?
Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple contracts. In the context of the 2027 Oscars, that could mean markets tied to questions like whether a specific film will win Best Picture or if a certain star takes home Best Actor.
Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think an artist will win and buy a โYesโ contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40 percent chance. If the artist wins, the contract settles at $1, netting 60 cents per share. If not, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the collective expectations of the crowd.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than betting.
Why should I wager on the Oscars at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
โ Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2027 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 14, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars will be held at The Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
Conan O'Brien will reprise his role as the host of the Oscars.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2027 Oscars will be broadcast live on ABC and stream on Hulu.
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