📽️ Oscars Odds at Prediction Markets 2027: The Odyssey Among Favorites for Biggest Awards

Though the 99th Oscars aren't until March 14, 2027, we're looking at the latest Oscars odds at prediction trading market Kalshi for all of the major categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is favored in numerous key categories, after the director's last film, Oppenheimer, won seven Academy Awards.

Kalshi is one of our best Oscars betting sites, and it is one of the only platforms that has odds available for categories outside of Best Picture at this time. Without further ado, here are my latest Oscars predictions.

💰️ Kalshi promo code

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

---

🔮 Oscars Best Picture odds 2027

It's no surprise to see The Odyssey leading the pack early in Oscar season. Nolan's newest film has plenty of hype surrounding it, and considering how much love the Academy has shown Nolan in the past, it would be shocking if the film wasn't at least nominated for Best Picture. 

That said, there's plenty of talent at the top of this board with Alejandro G. Inarritu's Digger coming in as the second-favorite ahead of Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary. Other key titles in the mix are Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, Steven Spielberg's Disclosure Day, and companion pieces The Adventures of Cliff Booth and The Social Reckoning.

---

Best Picture favorite: The Odyssey (22%)

Nolan has been nominated for eight Oscars in his career, and he finally broke through with two wins for Best Picture and Best Director for Oppenheimer. Considering his recent Oscar success, and the fact that the Academy has shown him love since Memento all the way back in 2000, it's not surprising to see his latest epic favored this far out.

The Odyssey stars Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong'o, Zendaya, and Charlize Theron, just to name a few. The initial trailers for the film have been stellar. And then there is the story of the making of the film. With an estimated budget of $250 million, this is expected to be Nolan's most expensive film to date, which is saying a lot considering his filmography. It's also the first film to be shot entirely on IMAX's 70 mm film cameras.

What makes the initial 22% so enticing is that this movie should get excellent reviews when it releases in July. That will give it a head start over many other favorites, which don't release until the fall. Therefore, I expect the percentage to skyrocket in mid-July, which could provide a nice payday for those who get in early. However, I worry the film is coming out too early to actually win, especially in a very crowded year.

Best Picture prediction: Wild Horse Nine (7%)

The last time Martin McDonagh made a movie, it received nine Oscar nominations. However, that film, The Banshees of Inisherin, left Oscar night empty-handed. Now, McDonagh is back with Wild Horse Nine, a film starring Sam Rockwell (who won his first Oscar starring in McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and John Malkovich. 

Wild Horse Nine is another black comedy, which is McDonagh's bread and butter. While those types of films don't tend to win Oscars, the number of nominations that McDonagh has received for previous works makes me confident that Wild Horse Nine will be a favorite come Oscar Sunday. And with a Nov. 6 release date, the film is positioned well to peak at the right time for Oscar voters.

---

🏆 Best Director Oscars odds 2027

Best Director favorite: Christopher Nolan - The Odyssey (29%)

Nolan has been nominated for Best Director just twice in his career, but he managed to pick up the win for his work on Oppenheimer. The Odyssey was filmed on location in Greece, Scotland, the Western Sahara, and Malta, just to name a few. Choosing to shoot on location and use practical effects could be what helps Nolan separate himself from the competition again. After all, it's what he's been praised for throughout his entire career. 

I fully expect Nolan to remain the favorite until Oscar Sunday, unless The Odyssey is a critical disaster. Nolan has never made a film like that, and if this is his first, then this whole race is wide-open.

Best Director prediction: Alejandro G. Inarritu - Digger (5%)

Oscar voters love Inarritu, as shown by his back-to-back Best Director wins for Birdman and The Revenant in 2015 and 2016. Since The Revenant, Inarritu has only directed one feature-length film. Though the film, Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, was poorly received, it still received an 
Oscar nomination.

His newest film, Digger, is a black comedy starring Tom Cruise, Jesse Plemons, and Sandra Huller. Based on the logline, "The most powerful man in the world races to prove he is humanity's savior before the disaster he unleashed destroys everything," this movie feels like it's going to have a very similar tone to Birdman. 

Digger currently has the second-best odds to win Best Picture, so I'm surprised that Inarritu's odds are so low. With Cruise starring in the leading role, there's no way this movie doesn't maintain hype into the winter. Even if Inarritu doesn't win, get in on him now, as I expect a surge in his odds when the film releases in early October.

---

🏆 Best Actor Oscars odds 2027

Best Actor winner: Tom Cruise - Digger (33%)

Will this be the year that Cruise finally wins his Oscar? He's been nominated three times as an actor, but he hasn't earned a nomination since 1999's Magnolia. Cruise has starred in numerous iconic films throughout his career, and he has built an incredible reputation in the industry. After receiving an Honorary Award this past year, I think we could see him emerge victorious in a competitive category in 2027.

Cruise is the star of Digger, and if the film lives up to the hype, it would be surprising to see Cruise fall out of the mix in this category. And remember, Inarritu is incredible at getting the best work from his actors. He very nearly led Michael Keaton to Best Actor for Birdman, and he directed Leonardo DiCaprio to his first Oscar for The Revenant. This is one category where I think the favorite is going to remain the same throughout the entirety of awards season.

Best Actor prediction: Brad Pitt - The Adventures of Cliff Booth (8%)

For the record, I am picking Cruise to win Best Actor. However, to add a little variety and back someone other than the favorite, I'll take a shot on Pitt. Pitt is reprising his Oscar-winning role of Cliff Booth from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Instead of being helmed by Quentin Tarantino, the film will be directed by David Fincher, a director with whom Pitt has worked numerous times.

While Pitt already proved he can win an Oscar as this character, will voters really award the same actor for the same role twice? And how will Booth fare as a leading man? Again, I think Cruise will win this award, but it's worth keeping an eye on Pitt just in case.

---

🏆 Best Actress Oscars odds 2027

Best Actress favorite: Renate Reinsve - Fjord (19%)

Reinsve just picked up her first Best Actress nomination last year for Sentimental Value, and now she's favored for her role in Fjord. Fjord just had its premiere at Cannes, and the film was met with overwhelmingly positive reviews. But will the film, directed by Cristian Mungiu, who is mostly unknown to American audiences, have the staying power it needs for Reinsve to win this award? I don't think it will.

Reinsve was remarkable in Sentimental Value, yet she never really felt like she had a chance to win Best Actress at last year's Oscars. I worry that until she teams up with a major Hollywood director, Reinsve will find herself consistently nominated but without any wins. That said, one thing working in her favor is that there aren't any major household names in the mix for this award right now, with the exception of Cynthia Erivo.

Best Actress prediction: Sandra Huller - Rose (12%)

Rose first played for audiences at Berlinale in February, and Huller's performance has been a major talking point since. The film currently boasts 100% of RottenTomatoes, though it still doesn't have a release date in the United States.

While the lack of a US release date is definitely alarming, there are a few reasons I believe that Huller will win this award next March. First, she's been involved in numerous Oscar-nominated projects in recent years, including The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall, the latter of which she was nominated for Best Actress.

Additionally, Huller was in Project Hail Mary, a major box office success that looks likely to pick up a Best Picture nomination, and she is set to star in Inarritu's upcoming Digger, which is also likely to get a Best Picture nomination. These films will keep Huller top-of-mind for voters, which should lead to more eyes on her performance in Rose, once the film does officially release in America.

---

What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2027 Oscars?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple contracts. In the context of the 2027 Oscars, that could mean markets tied to questions like whether a specific film will win Best Picture or if a certain star takes home Best Actor.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think an artist will win and buy a “Yes” contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40 percent chance. If the artist wins, the contract settles at $1, netting 60 cents per share. If not, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the collective expectations of the crowd.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.

Why should I wager on the Oscars at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

---

❓ Oscars FAQs

When are the Oscars?

The 2027 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 14, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

Where are the Oscars?

The Oscars will be held at The Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles.

Who's hosting the Oscars?

Conan O'Brien will reprise his role as the host of the Oscars.

How to watch the Oscars

The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast live on ABC and stream on Hulu.

---

📃 Affiliate disclosure

Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)