Oscars Odds & Favorites 2026: 'One Battle After Another', 'Hamnet' the Best Picture Leaders

"One Battle After Another" and "Hamnet" were the big winners at the Golden Globes, as they took home awards for Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical and Best Motion Picture - Drama, respectively. However, "One Battle After Another" continued to pull away from the rest of the field, as Paul Thomas Anderson won Best Director and Best Screenplay, defeating "Hamnet" in both categories.

The next biggest contender, "Sinners," saw its momentum thwarted after winning just two Golden Globes. The odds for Ryan Coogler's film to win, according to Fanduel (Ontario), decreased from +600 to +750 after the awards ceremony. 

Timothee Chalamet picked up another big win, earning Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, but otherwise, it was an expectedly quiet night for "Marty Supreme." Still, the odds for the film didn't decrease, and it still has the fourth-best chance of winning.

Read on for our up-to-date predictions of this year's race, then head over to one of our best Oscars betting sites for even more betting options. Without further ado, here are the latest Oscars odds and favorites ahead of the 2026 Oscars ceremony on Sunday, March 15 (7 p.m. ET) at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

🎬 Oscars Best Picture odds 2026

Here are the latest Oscars odds via FanDuel Canada to win Best Picture:

🏆 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting favorite

One Battle After Another (-600)

It's becoming hard to see how "One Battle After Another" doesn't win Best Picture in mid-March. PTA's film has dominated the awards circuit, winning Best Picture and Best Director at the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes. At this point, oddsmakers are essentially calling this film a lock to win with a price of -600. Remember, the odds for "Anora" on Oscar Sunday were -200 last year. 

The film boasts a 95% on RottenTomatoes, and with A-list stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn attached, the hype for the film hasn't died down at all. There's also the fact that Paul Thomas Anderson has received 11 Oscar nominations but has never won. There's really nothing working against the film at the moment. Except...

I will note that "One Battle After Another" could encounter some difficulties due to its box office performance. With a projected budget between $130 and $175 million, this is Anderson's biggest film to date. And while the film gave Anderson his best opening weekend ever, with $22 million, that is far less than the film needed to make back its budget. The film made over $200 million worldwide, but it barely cracked $70 million at the domestic box office. Could this hurt "One Battle After Another" when there are sure to be blockbusters, like "Sinners," in the mix in March?

🐶 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting underdogs

Hamnet (+600)

“Hamnet” relives a fictional account of William Shakespeare and his wife mourning the loss of their son. The film features a deep ensemble of budding actors and is directed by Chloe Zhao, who won two Oscars for her efforts in “Nomadland." Zhao once again finds herself on a shortlist for Best Picture glory, and with the Academy showing they have no problem in rewarding her vision, this period piece may be a straightforward ticket to the Oscars.

With Jessie Buckley currently favored to win Best Actress (-1500), the film has the type of powerhouse performance that can help elevate it come Oscar night. However, Buckley is the only part of the film that is consistently recognized.

Despite winning Best Motion Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes, "Hamnet" didn't pick up any victories in categories where it went head-to-head with "One Battle After Another." This has been the case throughout most of awards season.

Defeating films like "Frankenstein," "Sinners," "The Secret Agent," and "Sentimental Value" at the Golden Globes shows that "Hamnet" poses the most notable challenge to "One Battle After Another." The problem is, this is starting to feel like it's not a competition.

Sinners (+750)

For the first time since its release on April 18, the momentum for "Sinners" has taken a hit. At the Golden Globes, the film took home only two awards (Best Original Score and Cinematic and Box Office Achievement), as Coogler and Michael B. Jordan left the ceremony empty-handed.

After the odds for the film dropped all the way to +600, putting it in a tie with "Hamnet," the odds have once again gone back to +750.

That said, the film still grossed over $279 million domestically, making it the 10th-highest-grossing R-rated film of all time. Additionally, some, including Variety's Clayton Davis, believe that the film could break the record for most Oscar nominations ever. Would that type of hype be enough to get "Sinners" back in the conversation in a serious way? Probably not, but the popularity of Coogler and Jordan shouldn't be underestimated.

🎯 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting long shots

Marty Supreme (+1000)

“Marty Supreme” is distributor A24’s biggest financial investment to date, and the film is proving to be a success. Timothée Chalamet – maybe the hottest name in Hollywood right now – leads the cast and seems destined to finally win Best Actor. He was honored at the Critics Choice Awards, and he currently has -390 odds to beat DiCaprio and take home the Oscar. It's worth noting that these odds didn't change at all after Chalamet beat DiCaprio at the Golden Globes.

The film boasts a 94% on RottenTomatoes, and it has grossed over $70 million at the U.S. box office. The film feels like a lock to at least be nominated for Best Picture. However, the odds for the film haven't improved much despite the strong reaction to its release, and it continues to take a backseat to "One Battle After Another," "Hamnet," and "Sinners" when it comes to major awards.

Sentimental Value (+1800)

From director Joachim Trier ("The Worst Person in the World"), "Sentimental Value" has already been announced as Norway's entry for Best International Feature Film. It also won the Grand Prix at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, and it finished as first runner-up for the International People's Choice Award at TIFF.

The film made just over $10 million at the worldwide box office, so without much word-of-mouth, it's going to have to rely on strong critical acclaim to build momentum. Last year’s Cannes winner “Anora” proved that a film does not need a big budget with Hollywood stars to go all the way in the Oscar race, and Trier will be hoping to take that same path to glory.

The downside for "Sentimental Value" is that it is losing momentum. This is a movie that had odds of +2300 before Cannes, then had odds of +850 at the beginning of December. Now, the film is tied for the sixth-shortest odds at the Oscars.

"Sentimental Value" needed a huge night at the Golden Globes to really elevate its chances of winning, and while Stellan Skarsgard did take home Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, the film didn't earn wins for any of its other seven nominations. That includes Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language, which went to "The Secret Agent."

Bugonia (+2700)

No film benefited more from the Golden Globe nominations than "Bugonia." However, no film suffered more from a poor showing at the ceremony than Yorgos Lanthimos' latest delve into the truly bizarre. The film left the Golden Globes empty-handed, as it failed to win Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy (Emma Stone), or Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy (Jesse Plemons).

The film's odds dropped from +2200 to +1400 after the Golden Globe nominations were announced, a significant move that no other serious contender saw. However, the odds are now sitting at +2700, which makes this film a true long shot come Oscar Sunday. However, it still feels like "Bugonia" is a lock to get nominated, and it certainly has a better chance to win than most of the movies with odds of +2000 or greater.

💸 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting pick

Now that the odds for "One Battle After Another" have dropped so much, there isn't much value in taking it to win Best Picture. "Hamnet" is moving in the wrong direction, and while "Sinners" is a fan-favorite, the film seems better positioned to take home awards for Best Score and Best Casting than Best Picture. Therefore, I think the most value still lies in taking "Marty Supreme" at +1000. Chalamet is all but locked to win Best Actor, which should ensure that most voters give the film its due and watch it, even if it doesn't seem like something they'd be interested in. You should be able to get this price until the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 22.

🏆 Last year's Oscars betting results

💡 How to bet on the Oscars

Odds for the 2026 Oscars are available at our best sportsbooks. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars, and don't miss our guide for how to bet on the Oscars!.

Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2026 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.

DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others. 

Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.

It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!

❓ Oscars FAQs

When are the Oscars?

The 2026 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 15, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

Where are the Oscars?

The Oscars will likely be held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Who's hosting the Oscars?

Conan O'Brien will reprise his role as host for the 2026 Oscars.

How to watch the Oscars

The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.