NASCAR AI Predictions for Daytona 500: Claude's AI Simulation & Picks for Sunday
After projecting every race using AI last season, we're back in action ahead of the Great American Race with our NASCAR AI predictions for the Daytona 500 on Sunday (1:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at Daytona International Speedway.
After relying on ChatGPT last season, our new simulation model this year is powered by Claude - the trending AI chatbot by Anthropic known for its complex reasoning skills. Note that these picks are for entertainment purposes; for more (human) analysis, check out my breakdown of the best Daytona 500 prop bets ahead of Sunday's race.
🤖 NASCAR AI predictions for Daytona 500
NASCAR AI predictions generated via Claude for entertainment purposes.
NASCAR pick to win: Denny Hamlin
The simulation projects Hamlin to win his fourth Daytona 500, tying him with Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett for the second-most all-time behind Richard Petty's seven. Hamlin's superspeedway resume is unmatched among active drivers—three Daytona 500 wins, six career superspeedway victories, and an ability to consistently position himself at the front when it matters. He starts 22nd but that's irrelevant at Daytona; starting position has almost no correlation with finishing position in plate races. The simulation sees Hamlin making the right moves in the final laps and finding clean air when the checkered flag waves.
Best NASCAR prop: Joey Logano top 3
Logano won Duel 1 and starts third, putting him in ideal position to dictate the early running. Team Penske has three cars in the field (Logano, Blaney, Cindric), and their drafting alliance is one of the strongest in the garage. Logano won the 2015 Daytona 500 and has three career Talladega wins—he knows how to navigate the chaos of superspeedway racing. The simulation has him finishing second, pushed to the line by Hamlin. At current odds, a top-3 prop offers strong value for a driver starting on the front row with elite teammates behind him.
Best NASCAR long shot: Bubba Wallace to win
Wallace has finished second in the Daytona 500 twice (2018, 2022) and owns one of the best superspeedway records in the field. 23XI Racing fields four cars this year (Wallace, Reddick, Herbst, Heim), giving Wallace drafting partners throughout the race. He knows how to stay out of trouble at Daytona—avoiding the Big One is half the battle—and he's shown the ability to be in position at the end. The simulation has him finishing sixth, but his ceiling is a win if the final restart falls his way. At +2500, he represents the best risk-reward play on the board.
💵 More Daytona 500 predictions
Earlier this week, I broke down my Daytona 500 predictions and expert picks with my best bet to win Sunday's race featuring one of Claude's favorite picks above.
🏁 Daytona 500 AI predictions: Finishing order for every driver
Claude's projected finishing order for all 41 drivers in the 2026 Daytona 500.
| Pos | # | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2 | 22 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
| 3 | 24 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 4 | 12 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske |
| 5 | 2 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske |
| 6 | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing |
| 7 | 9 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 8 | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing |
| 9 | 20 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 10 | 48 | Alex Bowman | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 11 | 19 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 12 | 8 | Kyle Busch | Richard Childress Racing |
| 13 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | Hyak Motorsports |
| 14 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | Legacy Motor Club |
| 15 | 54 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 16 | 71 | Michael McDowell | Spire Motorsports |
| 17 | 6 | Brad Keselowski | RFK Racing |
| 18 | 60 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing |
| 19 | 3 | Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing |
| 20 | 21 | Josh Berry | Wood Brothers Racing |
| 21 | 43 | Erik Jones | Legacy Motor Club |
| 22 | 17 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing |
| 23 | 67 | Corey Heim | 23XI Racing |
| 24 | 88 | Connor Zilisch | Trackhouse Racing |
| 25 | 34 | Todd Gilliland | Front Row Motorsports |
| 26 | 38 | Zane Smith | Front Row Motorsports |
| 27 | 4 | Noah Gragson | Front Row Motorsports |
| 28 | 40 | Justin Allgaier | JR Motorsports |
| 29 | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | Legacy Motor Club |
| 30 | 35 | Riley Herbst | 23XI Racing |
| 31 | 97 | Shane van Gisbergen | Trackhouse Racing |
| 32 | 1 | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing |
| 33 | 5 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 34 | 77 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports |
| 35 | 41 | Cole Custer | Haas Factory Team |
| 36 | 7 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports |
| 37 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger | Kaulig Racing |
| 38 | 10 | Ty Dillon | Kaulig Racing |
| 39 | 66 | Casey Mears | Garage 66 |
| 40 | 78 | BJ McLeod | Live Fast Motorsports |
| 41 | 51 | Cody Ware | Rick Ware Racing |
✅ NASCAR AI picks & best odds
See more sports picks for all of our NASCAR analysis based on the latest betting odds.
| Predictions | Best odds | AI confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin to win | +1400 via BetMGM | 14% |
| Joey Logano top 3 | +400 via bet365 | 41% |
| Bubba Wallace to win | +2500 via Caesars | 9% |
🏆 Daytona 500 past winners
| Year | Driver | Team | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 2024 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 2023 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | JTG Daugherty Racing | Chevrolet |
| 2022 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | Ford |
| 2021 | Michael McDowell | Front Row Motorsports | Ford |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2018 | Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing | Chevrolet |
| 2017 | Kurt Busch | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford |
| 2016 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
📺 How to watch Daytona 500 2026: NASCAR schedule & TV info
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 15
- Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, Fla.)
- TV: FOX
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