🏎️ Miami Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Best Bets for Sunday's Race
One of the marquee races kicks off the restart to the F1 season as drivers get set for Sunday's Miami Grand Prix (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).
My Miami Grand Prix predictions provide the updated betting lines and three best bets, featuring a pick from each finishing tier. As predictable as the humidity in Florida, Mercedes' drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are the betting favorites (+150), with the McLaren duo the closest.
📊 Miami Grand Prix odds 2026
Latest Miami Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM. All picks and odd below are from before qualifying.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | +150 | 40% | $15 |
| George Russell | +150 | 40% | $15 |
| Oscar Piastri | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Lando Norris | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Max Verstappen | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Pierre Gasly | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Isack Hadjar | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Liam Lawson | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Alexander Albon | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
💰 Miami Grand Prix predictions, best bets
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: George Russell, Mercedes (+150) | 1u -> 1.5u | Finished 3rd in Miami last year and was unlucky in Japan. |
| Top 3 finish: Oscar Piastri, McLaren (+120) | 0.5u -> 0.6u | Piastri was superb in Japan, and I expect McLaren's car to be even better after the break. |
| Top 6 finish: Max Verstappen, Red Bull (+125) | 0.5u -> 1.4u | Red Bull aren't among the best, but Verstappen will be ready. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 4.1 units
🏆 Pick to win Miami Grand Prix: George Russell
George Russell encountered a series of misfortunes at the Japanese Grand Prix, which I discussed in my piece on the Miami Grand Prix favorites. The unfortunate timing of the safety car and a battery issue cost him any chance of competing with Antonelli for first place.
Before poor happenstance derailed his Japanese Grand Prix, Russell finished first and second in the opening two races. I expect his best race of the season on the Miami International Autodrome, where he finished third last year.
That should facilitate his second win of the season and first at the Miami Grand Prix.
🥉 Top 3 finish at Miami Grand Prix: Oscar Piastri
McLaren is back, baby. Not only did Piastri enjoy his best race of the season, finishing second in Japan, but McLaren would have worked tirelessly over the bonus five-week hiatus to further improve the car.
While every team had the same unexpected time to tinker, McLaren was on to something before the break, and I expect their improvements will be the best. Despite finishing more than 13 seconds behind race winner Antonelli, Piastri was superb in Japan.
While Piastri would have preferred no break in the season, he won't be negatively impacted by it, particularly as he won last year's Miami GP.
6️⃣ Top 6 finish at Miami Grand Prix: Max Verstappen
In the wake of race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase's confirmed move to McLaren in 2028, I expect a defiant performance from the four-time champion.
Verstappen has endured a miserable start to the 2026 season, and he may have benefited the most from the five-week break. The Dutchman finished sixth in the Australian Grand Prix, had a disastrous 16th in China, and crossed the line eighth in Japan.
While Red Bull clearly has a ton of ground to make up, sixth place is by no means a stretch. The car isn't ready to challenge for a podium spot, or at least it wasn't before the hiatus. But sixth offers a sound alternative.
💡 How I'm betting the Miami Grand Prix
The Miami Grand Prix offers a unique challenge, to put it mildly. With no race in five weeks, it's difficult to gauge where each driver sits, as each team would have worked feverishly to improve its car during the forced hiatus.
It will be interesting to see whether teams like McLaren and Ferrari have closed the gap on Mercedes. There's always a chance Mercedes has pulled further ahead, but I doubt it.
Based on the bevy of unknowns, I'm backing the status quo until on-track evidence proves otherwise. However, Russell to win is the only pick I'm investing a full unit in ($10).
🏆 Past Miami Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
🗓️ 2026 Miami Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, May 1 @ noon ET
- Sprint Qualifying: Friday, May 1 @ 4:30 p.m. ET
- Sprint Race: Saturday, May 2 @ noon ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, May 2 @ 4 p.m.
- Race: Sunday, May 3 @ 4 p.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Miami Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, May 3
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Miami International Autodrome (Miami)
- How to watch: ESPN
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