Liberty vs. Sparks Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: New York a Heavy Favorite After Olympic Break

The New York Liberty entered the Olympic break among the favorites by the WNBA championship odds. And our best sportsbooks expect more of the same in Thursday's return against the Los Angeles Sparks, which tips off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN from Crypto.com Arena.

New York is favored by 11 points to beat Los Angeles across our best sports betting sites, as we offer our best Liberty vs. Sparks prediction and expert picks for Thursday.

Liberty vs. Sparks expert picks

WNBA picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

• Sparks +11.5 (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jonquel Jones Over 24.5 pts + reb (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Fade Liberty as big favorites vs. Sparks

Prediction: Sparks +11.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

On paper, this is one of the biggest mismatches possible against a team ranked first in scoring margin (plus-9.0) and a team ranked 11th out of 12 teams (minus-6.4).

In reality, it's a little more complicated than that, especially after Liberty stars Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu just spent three weeks giving their all to Team USA in the Paris 2024 Olympics. Now, days after securing gold, they'll need to get up for a midweek cross-country road tilt against the Sparks?

We've seen New York play down to its competition all year long, too, as it's won just eight of 25 games by 12 points or more. Los Angeles has lost by that margin just once in its last six games, and I'd be surprised if the Sparks get run off their home court in these teams' first game back in nearly a month.

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Player prop: Jonquel Jones Over 24.5 pts + reb ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While I like Los Angeles' chances of keeping it close, I do still think New York should win on Thursday. And Jones is a key reason why.

The former MVP winner has played third fiddle to Stewart and Ionescu this season, but she's still averaged 15.3 points and 9.1 rebounds in an All-Star campaign. She's been even better over her last 14 starts, averaging a combined 25.8 points and rebounds while clearing this prop total eight times.

With her star teammates coming back from a taxing trip overseas, this is the perfect opportunity for Jones to take over, as she's already done so many times this season.

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%

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Liberty vs. Sparks odds

Liberty vs. Sparks game info

• When: Thursday, Aug. 15
• Tip-off: 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Favorite: Liberty -11 (-110 via bet365)

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Liberty-Sparks predictions made Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET.

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