2022 Honda Classic Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

The Honda Classic regularly offers up longshot winners and other value bets, so our golf experts are here with their top PGA Tour picks of the week.

Sungjae Im leads one of the PGA Tour’s weakest fields of 2022 to PGA National for The Honda Classic. The 2020 champion is this week’s consensus favorite according to our top sportsbooks, but tournament history shows it could be wise to aim a little higher this week in Palm Beach Gardens, FL.

Here are our PGA Tour expert picks for the 2022 Honda Classic, including outrights, matchups, and props.

Honda Classic Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Honda Classic Picks and Preview

Honda Classic Picks to Win

Oosthuizen (+2200 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Louis Oosthuizen is the top-ranked golfer in the field this week at No. 13 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). We’re getting some value as world No. 24, and former Honda Classic champ, Sungjae Im is the consensus betting favorite with odds ranging from +1000 to +1200 to win. Oosthuizen shares the fifth-best odds at Caesars at +2200, while he’s as low as +1600 and third by the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The South African has played just two rounds at PGA National over the last three years, but he had finishes of T-21 and T-24 in 2017 and 2018, respectively. He’s averaging 0.12 total strokes gained on the field per round at this week’s venue. He took last week off of tournament play but last tied for 14th at the WM Phoenix Open with 1.31 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round.

Through 13 measured rounds on the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, Oosthuizen is averaging 1.42 SG: tee-to-green, with another 0.47 SG: around-the-green per round. If he can be just average with the putter, he should be the class of this field. - McLaren

Berger (+1600 via DraftKings)

Currently ranked as the fifth-best iron player on the PGA Tour, Daniel Berger will play in The Honda Classic for the fourth time in the last five years. Across four events this season, Berger has averaged 1.04 SG: approach per round.

Given the weak field this week, I believe Berger is catching longer odds than he should be at +1600. I think he is being faded because he withdrew from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am due to an injury. He then missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open when he returned.

I lean toward Berger this week due to his iron play and putting stats when he last played at PGA National. The 2020 Honda Classic saw Berger average 0.87 SG: putting. He has averaged 1.38 total strokes gained over 20 career rounds at PGA National and finished T-4 in 2020. This is an opportunity for me to take advantage of the mispricing on Berger and invest in a golfer I believe is the best in the field at +1600. - Metler

Knox (+6500 via DraftKings)

Russell Knox comes into this tournament in good form but has a mixed bag of results here over the years. He finished second and third respectively in 2014 and 2015 but has since missed the cut in four of his past five appearances.

PGA National is one of the most challenging courses on Tour, but Knox has tamed the dreaded ‘Bear Trap’ to the tune of -6 across his eight appearances in this event. He ranks in the top 10 in approach and proximity from 150-200 yards this season, both key indicators for success this week. Additionally, he ranks first on Tour over the past 24 rounds in good drives gained – pivotal on this course, as slow and steady wins the race here. 

Though Knox hasn’t had the level of success he experienced here nearly 10 years ago, he’s playing tremendous golf right now, and I believe he will find his way atop the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon. - Anderson

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Honda Classic Longshot Picks

Higgo (+10000 via PointsBet)

Garrick Higgo’s a somewhat recent PGA Tour winner who’s being grossly disrespected with these odds in this field. The 22-year-old had won three times on the European Tour and twice on the Sunshine Tour before winning the Palmetto Championship last June. 

He has never played this event, but he has plenty of distance for PGA National and comes off a T-21 finish at the WM Phoenix Open, where he averaged 0.91 SG: off-the-tee and 0.51 SG: around-the-green per round. At No. 74 in the OWGR, he’s the 24th-best golfer in attendance this week.Higgo’s offered with odds to win as low as +7000 at FanDuel Sportsbook, so we’re getting a nice boost at PointsBet and DraftKings. - McLaren

Ryder (+14000 via DraftKings)

We are hoping that Sam Ryder's hole-in-one on the 16th hole during the WM Phoenix Open won't be the highlight of his season. This is because we are trying to cash a +14000 ticket on him this week.

Ryder has played well on the PGA Tour the last two weeks, finishing T-26 at The Genesis Invitational and T-23 at the WM Phoenix Open. He gained strokes in every key area in the Phoenix Open.

In addition to being in solid form, Ryder performed well at The Honda Classic last year. Ryder gained strokes in every category and finished T-8 with a score of minus-5. In his career at PGA National, he has gained an average of 1.13 strokes per round.

Ryder's price at DraftKings is the longest on the market and he is considerably shorter at other sportsbooks. FanDuel currently offers Ryder with odds of +9000, a significant difference from DraftKings' +14000 number. - Metler

Swafford (+10000 via BetRivers)

I always try to find a longshot that has win equity. Hudson Swafford has just that after winning The American Express in January. 

Swafford’s ball-striking is top-notch recently – ranking fourth on tour in the past 24 rounds, and he also ranks third in approach with 18.7 strokes gained in the same time frame. 

Big hitters tend to do well here, and he currently ranks 36th on Tour while averaging 308.3 yards per drive. Swafford has the necessary skill set to succeed at PGA National and enters in tremendous form.

He’s certainly worth adding to your betting card at this price. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: Honda Classic Prop Picks

Honda Classic Top Matchup Picks

Wolff (+115) vs. Lowry (via DraftKings)

I’m very high on Matthew Wolff this week and this matchup against the 50th-ranked Shane Lowry is a good value spot. Wolff enters the week 35th in the OWGR and is coming off a T-6 finish at the Asian Tour’s Saudi International, where Lowry finished T-14. Wolff finished second and T-5 against similar strengths of field as this at the Shriners Children’s Open and WWT Championship, respectively, in the fall.

Lowry has the course history advantage with 16 rounds played at PGA National to Wolff’s four, but the young American enters the 2022 tournament in better form and as a better course fit. He’s second on Tour this season in average driving distance, and he’s averaging 0.47 SG: around-the-green per round to Lowry’s 0.29. 

Lowry is +2200 to win this week at DraftKings, with Wolff getting odds of +3500. I’ll take the big underdog in what should be a more evenly-priced matchup. - McLaren

Mitchell (+100) vs. Koepka (via DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell has had one of the most underrated seasons on the PGA Tour. In comparison to his statistics from last season, his game has improved dramatically. In 2021, Mitchell was gaining strokes only off the tee. This season he has gained strokes in each category and is averaging 1.09 SG: total per round. 

In contrast, you have Brooks Koepka, whose statistics have improved somewhat from 2020-21, though he is still averaging only 0.29 SG: total for the season. Koepka missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational, with strokes lost in every category except SG: around-the-green.

Mitchell won the Honda Classic in 2019 and, considering his current form, the wrong golfer is favored in this match. Due to the price of +100 on Mitchell, I am backing the 2019 champion in this matchup. Mitchell should be the -120 favorite over Koepka and not the other way around. - Metler

Knox (+100) vs. Lee (via DraftKings)

If you’ve followed these articles, you can see this tends to be my modus operandi. I love taking my outright pick as a dog in matchups. 

It may crash spectacularly at times, but most of the time, it comes home. 

Lee has been playing well, but Knox has been more consistent, finishing T-33 in each of his past three starts. 

Lee has finishes of T-63, T-38, and T-26 in his last three events. Though that is respectable, I like Knox’s game right now and believe he’s a perfect fit for this course. 

I’ll gladly back Knox in this spot at even odds as the TPC specialist Lee should struggle on this track. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: Betting Trends for The Honda Classic

Honda Classic Top Prop Picks

Winning margin: 1 stroke exactly (+250 via PointsBet)

Since PGA National became home to The Honda Classic in 2007, six winners claimed the title by just a single stroke, with four others going to a playoff. We lose the advantage of the playoff decision in this market, with it carrying equal +250 odds at PointsBet, but we’ll need to take that risk.

None of the top 12 players in the OWGR are competing this week, but there are 12 golfers between Nos. 13 and 50 in the rankings in attendance. That cluster should keep scoring tight, especially with only four winning scores better than minus-9 since 2007. - McLaren

Top 10: Fowler (+550 via DraftKings)

Rickie Fowler is struggling and we all know that, so selling this play will be difficult. I was pleasantly surprised to see that he is averaging 1.06 SG: tee-to-green this season. When one considers that he has missed three of his last four cuts, it is surprising to see him average such a high number in one of the most important statistical areas for this week.

In my opinion, if it isn't this week for Fowler, then when will it be? His performance on this course has been very strong in the past, averaging 1.45 strokes gained over 40 rounds. It appears he will be an automatic fade for the remainder of the season if he cannot deliver this week.

I believe he can cash this ticket for us this week, since all that is holding him back is his putting. For the season, Fowler has lost 0.78 strokes putting per round. If he was losing strokes in multiple categories, then it would be even more difficult for him to overcome his early-season struggles. In any given week, putting is one of the easiest categories to fix.

I fully endorse the +550 price point for Fowler’s top-10 finish in the Honda Classic, considering his course history and the weak field. - Metler

Lowry to make a hole in one (+10000 via DraftKings)

I typically play these props safely, entering the Top-20/30/40 markets. However, I’m going to get wild this week. 

PGA National is known for its difficult Par 3s playing as some of the most challenging holes on the course. They all fall between 150-200 yards and are surrounded by water, creating further problems for these players.

Over the past 24 rounds on Tour, Lowry ranks fifth with 3.2 strokes gained on Par 3s between 150-200 yards. So, why not have some fun and sprinkle some pizza money on this prop? - Anderson

Fade

Tommy Fleetwood

Tommy Fleetwood is the all-time tournament leader (and by a wide margin) with an average of 3.24 total strokes gained on the field per round across eight rounds at PGA National. He finished fourth in 2018 and third in 2020, while not playing this event in either 2019 or 2021. His best golf on the PGA Tour has typically come during the Florida swing.

However, he enters this week just 44th in the OWGR, even after a T-8 finish in the Saudi International and a T-12 at the Slynch.io Dubai Desert Classic. In 2020, he was 12th in the OWGR entering The Honda Classic and coming off a stretch of T-2, T-11, and T-18 over his previous three events across the European Tour and World Golf Championships. He doesn’t warrant these low odds in 2022 off of such limited course history. - McLaren

Ian Poulter

To win the Honda Classic, I am fading Ian Poulter and his +4000 odds. For a player who has struggled to make cuts this season, this number is way too short. Entering the week, Poulter is ranked 63rd in the OWGR. In years past, his putting has been his strength, but it has disappointed so far in 2022.

Through the first seven events of this season, Poulter has lost 0.28 strokes per round. In his last four events on the PGA Tour, he missed the cut three times.

In addition to fading Poulter's odds to win the tournament, I would say he will miss the cut at odds of +150 via DraftKings. Poulter missed the cut at last year's Honda Classic and I believe he has already packed his bags for the Saudi Golf League. - Metler

Joaquin Niemann

Joaquin Niemann is obviously in great form after convincingly winning The Genesis Invitational last week, as, he went wire-to-wire in an absolutely loaded field. 

The stress and now relief that comes with a win of that caliber is something we will never experience, but I imagine it’s daunting. 

Fresh off some celebrating and in a weak field, I doubt Mr. Niemann will be exceptionally motivated this weekend. 

He was priced around +7500 to +8000 to win last week. At this price, I’ll stay away. - Anderson

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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