FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Bookmakers Dangling Value Price on Truex

NASCAR action continues to intensify with only four races remaining before the playoffs. Get set for Sunday’s Cup Series race at Michigan with our FireKeepers Casino 400 picks and predictions based on the best NASCAR odds.

Following a rather calm short-track race last week, the NASCAR Cup Series will be back on a bigger and faster oval this week. Michigan International Speedway is set to host its annual NASCAR weekend, culminating with the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday afternoon.

Kevin Harvick snapped what was a lengthy winless streak at Michigan last summer, and he's no stranger to victory lane here. In total, Harvick has won five of the last seven Cup Series races held at Michigan, a stretch that dates back to summer 2018. The other two drivers to win during that stretch were Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney. In total, Ford has won eight straight races at its home track.

As far as the track is concerned, Michigan is considered to be one of the fastest tracks on the NASCAR circuit. It's two miles in length and is fairly comparable to Auto Club Speedway from a driving standpoint despite affording more grip. Kyle Busch won this year’s race at Auto Club back in late February.

Here are our best bets and 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 picks for Sunday’s action at Richmond Raceway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

FireKeepers Casino 400 best bets

• Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+900 via BetMGM) ⭐
• Top-5 finish: Kevin Harvick (+130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Group E matchup: Austin Dillon (+270 via SuperBook) vs. Erik Jones, A.J. Allmendinger, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ⭐⭐⭐

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FireKeepers Casino 400 odds

FireKeepers Casino 400 picks

Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+900 via BetMGM) ⭐

With three wins to his name already this season, there’s no denying that Martin Truex Jr. has been one of the hottest and most consistent drivers in 2023. After being the betting favorite last weekend, he has slipped to the third choice or lower depending on which of our best sports betting sites you use.

This development begs the question of what exactly has changed for the market to offer Truex outright odds as high as 9-1. In reality, the answer is not a whole lot. Since going to victory lane at New Hampshire three weeks ago, all the No. 19 team has done is finish third at Pocono and seventh at Richmond.  

When it comes to historical statistics at Michigan, Truex is hardly a slouch. He has four top-three finishes and seven runs of sixth or better in his last ten starts here. His 6.9 average finish over that span is tied for the second-best among all Cup Series drivers. 

Combine Truex’s track stats with his recent strong runs and it’s hard to argue against backing him at +900 odds to win this weekend. This premium price is exclusive to BetMGM and is as much as two dollars better than what is listed at some of our other best sportsbooks.

Top-five finish: Kevin Harvick (+130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

We have been on the Kevin Harvick train going back a few weeks now. Though he remains winless in his final NASCAR season, that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent drivers on a weekly basis.

According to BetMGM’s odds, the implied probability of Harvick finishing in the top five on Sunday at Michigan is 43.5%. First of all, it should be noted that the +130 odds sit higher than the +110 price found at other sportsbooks in the market. Secondly, Harvick’s recent history at Michigan would seem to suggest that any sort of plus-money return on a top-five finish is a wager well worth making.

In his last eight starts at the two-mile oval, Harvick has gone to victory lane as the outright winner five times. This includes last year’s FireKeepers Casino 400. Throw in a runner-up finish back in 2018, and “The Closer” has placed top two in six of the last eight Cup Series races at Michigan. He boasts a ridiculous average finish of 3.5 over that span.

With stats like that, how can one possibly pass up the opportunity to back Harvick this weekend? It would hardly be a shock to see him repeat as the outright winner, but the +130 return for merely finishing top five is nothing to sneeze at.

Group E matchup: Austin Dillon (+270 via SuperBook) vs. Erik Jones, A.J. Allmendinger, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ⭐⭐⭐

In three previous races with the Next Gen Car on two-mile oval tracks, Austin Dillon has displayed a ton of speed. He finished runner-up at Auto Club Speedway last year and was ninth there back in February. At Michigan last year, he wound up 13th. What’s more, he also had a very fast car here back in 2021, only to have his day ended early via a wreck.

In addition to Dillon’s own speed, we will remind bettors that teammate Kyle Busch was victorious at Auto Club back in February in just his second start for Richard Childress Racing. Clearly, the RCR organization has something locked in for these large oval tracks. With this in mind, backing Dillon to win Group E makes for a sensible play this week.

Joining AD3 in this four-driver group matchup are Erik Jones (+240), A.J. Allmendinger (+290), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+290). Of the three, Jones has the best stats at Michigan. However, with all of the struggles that the Legacy Motor Club has been having this season, it’s tough to have high expectations for him.

Meanwhile, Allmendinger finds himself right in the middle of the playoff cutline points battle. That said, it’s difficult to trust the Kaulig Racing outfit to deliver on a weekly basis. The same can be said of Stenhouse and JTG Daugherty Racing. Dillon’s ninth-place run at the comparable Auto Club Speedway back in February was better than each of Stenhouse (12th), Jones (19th), and Allmendinger (36th).

Dillon also carries some momentum with him into this race after scoring a top-10 finish at Richmond last week. Unless something changes, bettors can bank on the RCR cars having speed with this package. As such, the No. 3 car has a great chance to win this mid-tier group matchup.

FireKeepers Casino 400 race info

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 6, 2:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, MI
• TV: USA Network
• Defending winner: Kevin Harvick

FireKeepers Casino 400 picks made 08/04/23 at 4:30 p.m. ET

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