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Italian Grand Prix Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Verstappen Goes for Record 10th Consecutive Win

Henry John

Last Updated: September 2, 2023 6:52 PM EDT • 4 min 25 sec read.

Max Verstappen of Red Bull Racing during qualifying ahead of the Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix at Autodromo Nazionale di Monza in Monza, Italy on Sept. 2, 2023 as we look at our Italian Grand Prix picks.
Max Verstappen of Red Bull Racing during qualifying ahead of the Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix at Autodromo Nazionale di Monza in Monza, Italy on Sept. 2, 2023. Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via AFP.

Can Max Verstappen make history with his 10th straight win? Our Italian GP picks and predictions based on the best available Formula 1 odds fill you in. Find out where to bet on the sport’s most dominant driver along with some other intriguing props for Sunday’s race.

It may be a few months after the original date, but Formula 1 is finally set to race in Italy Sunday. History is on the line for racing's most dominant driver when the green flag drops on the Italian Grand Prix at the Monza Circuit.

Entering the weekend, defending series champion Max Verstappen is on a remarkable nine-race winning streak. After tying the record set by Sebastian Vettel in 2013 by winning in his native country last week, Verstappen is vying to break the mark by winning a 10th consecutive F1 race this Sunday. 

Verstappen is starting at the front in his quest to make history, but he won’t be on the pole position he was in every other race this summer. Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz bested Verstappen and teammate Charles Leclerc by .013 and .067 seconds, respectively. If Saturday’s nip-and-tuck qualifying session was any indication, fans are in store for a great race Sunday. 

Here are our best bets and 2023 Italian Grand Prix picks for Sunday’s race at the Monza Circuit. (odds via SuperBook, BetMGM and bet365; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Italian GP Best Bets

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Italian GP Odds

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Max Verstappen-500-440 🔥-450-450-500
Carlos Sainz+750 🔥+650+500 ❄️+650+600
Charles Leclerc+1000+1100+1000+1200 🔥+1000
Sergio Perez+2500 🔥+2200+2000+2000+2000
George Russell+4000+4500 🔥+4000+4000+4000
Lewis Hamilton+4500+5500 🔥+5000+4000 ❄️+5000

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Italian GP Predictions

Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-350 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

By now, Formula 1 bettors know full well that they need a significant amount of juice to back Verstappen to win a given race. What’s interesting this week is the price discrepancy across the betting market.

In our odds table above, FanDuel offers the cheapest price on Verstappen at -440. However, for those willing to dig a little further, SuperBook has a much better number.

Inexplicably, Verstappen is only listed as the -350 favorite there, over a full unit cheaper than  every other major shop! FanDuel’s implied probability of another Verstappen outright win sits at 81.5%. Based on SuperBook’s price, that probability is 77.8%. He's clearly still a massive favorite, but why lay more vig than you have to?

As for selecting Verstappen to win the Italian Grand Prix outright, who else could you possibly pick? The guy is the defending F1 champion and has all but taken home the championship hardware again this season. He has a chance to make history with his 10th consecutive race win Sunday. Oh, and he won this very race a year ago. Good luck to the rest of the field!

Top 3 finish: Sergio Perez (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Sergio Perez came nowhere close to matching his Red Bull Racing teammate’s success this season. Relative to the rest of the field, however, his 2023 campaign is actually quite solid. Perez sits second in the points standings, a full 33 points clear of the next driver behind him. He's also the only driver not named Max Verstappen to win a race this year.

After a slew of abysmal qualifying runs set him behind the eight-ball, Perez has turned things around in recent weeks. This trend continued in Saturday’s Italian GP qualifying session as he's poised to line up fifth on the starting grid.

Even when he was qualifying poorly, Perez had superior speed compared to most other drivers on the track. When it comes to recent form, he's finished on the podium in three of the last five races. The only two times where he failed to do so over that span were a sixth-place run in the British GP and a fourth-place showing last week at the Dutch GP.

With a top-5 starting spot locked in this weekend, bettors must like Perez’s chances of finishing on the podium. He finished sixth at the Monza Circuit a year ago, gaining seven spots during the race. He also gained three positions in the 2021 race. BetMGM’s -115 price on a Perez top-3 sits up to 10 cents lower than what other sportsbooks offer.

Group 3 matchup: Oscar Piastri (+162 via bet365) vs. Lando Norris, Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson ⭐⭐

One way where bet365 is unique when it comes to Formula 1 betting is, it offers four-driver group matchups. While these are widely available in the NASCAR market, few shops offer this type of F1 wagering. For the Italian Grand Prix, hone in on Group 3, which includes both McLaren and AlphaTauri drivers.

Part of what makes this group so appealing is that it can be whittled down to a head-to-head between the McLaren teammates right away. No disrespect to AlphaTauri, but the constructor simply hasn’t provided Yuki Tsunoda or Liam Lawson equipment capable of competing with the McLaren drivers this season.

Having eliminated the two longshots, we now must make the case for Oscar Piastri at +162 odds. Despite Piastri qualifing seventh, two spots ahead of Lando Norris, the latter is the favorite to win this group at +100 odds. Norris has a strong history at the Monza Circuit, finishing fourth here in 2021 and seventh last year.

Piastri very rarely finished ahead of his teammate this season and not even since the Canadian GP. However, Norris has qualifed exceptionally well in recent weeks, giving him a clear advantage. How will he fare starting ninth Sunday? 

With a two-spot advantage on the grid and the exact same equipment, Piastri has a reasonable chance to stay in front of his McLaren teammate. The +162 price implies only a 38.5% chance of this happening which is a bit low, to say the least.

Italian GP Race Info

  • Date: Sunday, Sept. 3, 9 a.m. ET
  • Location: Monza Circuit, Monza, Italy
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Italian GP picks made 9/2/23 at 5:34 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.