2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds: Larson, Hamlin in Dead Heat Entering Daytona
It's been a dramatic week for the NASCAR Cup Series championship odds with just two races left before the postseason begins in Atlanta.
On Monday, Tyler Reddick won the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan for his second victory of the season, seizing the top spot in the regular-season standings. That came a week after Austin Dillon crashed his way to the checkered flag at Richmond but was denied a playoff spot for his actions.
Denny Hamlin is the favorite across our best sports betting sites to win Saturday's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona, which begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/NBC, and he's in a virtual dead heat with Kyle Larson in the championship betting odds.
NASCAR Cup Series championship odds 2024
(NASCAR Cup Series odds via best sports betting apps as of Aug. 20 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Driver | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +380 🔥 | +375 | +375 |
| Denny Hamlin | +380 | +400 🔥 | +375 ❄️ |
| Christopher Bell | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| Tyler Reddick | +500 ❄️ | +600 🔥 | +550 |
| William Byron | +800 | +700 ❄️ | +800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +800 ❄️ | +900 🔥 | +850 |
| Chase Elliott | +1100 | +1100 | +1200 🔥 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Joey Logano | +1600 ❄️ | +1800 | +1800 |
| Brad Keselowsi | +2200 | +1800 ❄️ | +2200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +3500 | +3000 ❄️ | +3500 |
| Alex Bowman | +3500 | +4000 🔥 | +3300 ❄️ |
| Ross Chastain | +3500 ❄️ | +6000 🔥 | +5000 |
| Chris Buescher | +5000 ❄️ | +6000 | +6000 |
2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship favorites
Kyle Larson (+380)
For all of the ups and downs he's endured this season, Larson has hardly relinquished his grip among the favorites to win this year's NASCAR Cup Series championship.
He entered the year as the co-favorite with William Byron, and he's the only driver with four wins. His five poles are also the most in the Cup Series, though his crash last week - which derailed multiple cars - and a no-show at Charlotte have him fourth in the standings.
That may cost him some playoff points, but Larson still has the shortest odds in this field for a reason. He's arguably the best pure driver in auto racing, with a world-class team behind him and championship experience from his 2021 title.
Anything can happen in the postseason, which is why Larson and Hamlin aren't dealing at shorter odds. But they've been the story of this season and sure feel like they're headed for a duel in November to crown a champion.
Best odds: +380 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 20.83%
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Denny Hamlin (+400)
Hamlin's best odds are a tick higher than Larson's, but the former is the one who seems to have the inside track ahead of the postseason.
The No. 11 has led 896 laps, most in the field, and he's tied with Larson for the second-most top-fives (nine) behind Reddick. He could be tied with Reddick for the most wins, if not for Dillon's reckless move to end the day at Richmond.
Regardless, Hamlin is the most accomplished driver in NASCAR history yet to win a championship, and he's been perhaps the most consistent and dangerous driver on a weekly basis. He'd be my best bet among the favorites, though it's tough to lay short odds on anyone, given the volatility of the postseason.
Best odds: +400 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 20%
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Christopher Bell (+400)
There was a time not long ago when it looked like Bell might drive his way right to the front of this championship race.
From May 26 to June 23, Bell finished in the top 10 in five straight races, with two wins in that stretch. He's been the fastest driver on the track in more races than anyone else, even as he ranks outside the top five in top fives (seven).
Bell is still one of only three drivers to lead more than 500 laps - he's paced the field 720 times - and he's coming off a Championship 4 berth a season ago. He also won the race earlier this year in Phoenix, which is the site of this year's final championship race.
Best odds: +400 via Caesars | Implied probability: 20%
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My driver to watch in NASCAR Cup Series
Ty Gibbs (+3500)
We've had Gibbs in this spot all season long, even though the youngster is yet to win a race in his Cup Series career. And I'm still high on his chances at these odds after one of his best races of the season.
The 21-year-old finished third at Michigan and had a chance to win late, which has been a common theme for last year's Rookie of the Year. He quietly ranks in the top 10 in finishes inside the top five (six) and top-10 (10), and he ranks seventh in total laps led (351).
So why is Gibbs, backed by one of the sport's best teams in Joe Gibbs Racing, still dealing outside the top 10 in championship odds despite ranking inside the top 10 by just about every metric?
For one, he's yet to clinch a playoff spot without that elusive win, though he's in a strong position with just two races to go and a decent lead in points over the other bubble contenders. And if he does make it? He has the team, talent, and tenacity to surprise as a long shot.
Best odds: +3500 via Caesars | Implied probability: 2.78%
2024 NASCAR schedule and winners
| Date | Race | Location | Winner (open) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, Feb. 3 | Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Denny Hamlin (+1100) |
| Monday, Feb. 19 | Daytona 500 | Daytona International Speedway | William Byron (+1400) |
| Sunday, Feb. 25 | Ambetter Health 400 | Atlanta Motor Speedway | Daniel Suarez (+3000) |
| Sunday, March 3 | Pennzoil 400 | Las Vegas Motor Speedway | Kyle Larson (+400) |
| Sunday, March 10 | Shriners Children's 500 | Phoenix Raceway | Christopher Bell (+1000) |
| Sunday, March 17 | Food City 500 | Bristol Motor Speedway | Denny Hamlin (+500) |
| Sunday, March 24 | EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix | Circuit of the Americas | William Byron (+1000) |
| Sunday, March 31 | Toyota Owners 400 | Richmond Raceway | Denny Hamlin (+425) |
| Sunday, April 7 | Cook Out 400 | Martinsville Speedway | William Byron (+1200) |
| Sunday, April 14 | AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 | Texas Motor Speedway | Chase Elliott (+1400) |
| Sunday, April 21 | GEICO 500 | Talladega Superspeedway | Tyler Reddick (+2200) |
| Sunday, April 28 | Würth 400 | Dover Motor Speedway | Denny Hamlin (+750) |
| Sunday, May 5 | AdventHealth 400 | Kansas Speedway | Kyle Larson (+380) |
| Sunday, May 12 | Goodyear 400 | Darlington Raceway | Brad Keselowski (+1800) |
| Sunday, May 19 | NASCAR All-Star Race | North Wilkesboro Speedway | Joey Logano (+900) |
| Sunday, May 26 | Coca-Cola 600 | Charlotte Motor Speedway | Christopher Bell (+1300) |
| Sunday, June 2 | Enjoy Illinois 300 | World Wide Technology Raceway | Austin Cindric (+25000) |
| Sunday, June 9 | Toyota / Save Mart 350 | Sonoma Raceway | Kyle Larson (+750) |
| Sunday, June 16 | Iowa Corn 350 | Iowa Speedway | Ryan Blaney (+900) |
| Sunday, June 23 | USA Today 301 | New Hampshire Motor Speedway | Christopher Bell (+450) |
| Sunday, June 30 | Ally 400 | Nashville Superspeedway | Joey Logano (+1800) |
| Sunday, July 7 | Grant Park 165 | Chicago Street Course | Alex Bowman (+2200) |
| Sunday, July 14 | The Great American Getaway 400 | Pocono Raceway | Ryan Blaney (+1500) |
| Sunday, July 21 | Brickyard 400 | Indianapolis Motor Speedway | Kyle Larson (+600) |
| Sunday, Aug. 11 | Cook Out 400 | Richmond Raceway | Austin Dillon (+10000) |
| Sunday, Aug. 18 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | Michigan International Speedway | Tyler Reddick (+850) |
| Saturday, Aug. 24 | Coke Zero Sugar 400 | Daytona International Spedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 1 | Cook Out Southern 500 | Darlington Raceway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 8 | Quaker State 400* | Atlanta Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 15 | Go Bowling at The Glen* | Watkins Glen International | TBD |
| Saturday, Sept. 21 | Bass Pro Shops Night Race* | Bristol Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 29 | Hollywood Casino 400* | Kansas Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 6 | YellaWood 500* | Talladega Superspeedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 13 | Bank of America ROVAL 400* | Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 20 | South Point 400* | Las Vegas Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 27 | NASCAR Cup Series Race at Homestead-Miami* | Homestead-Miami Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Nov. 3 | XFINITY 500* | Martinsville Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Nov. 10 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship* | Phoenix Raceway | TBD |
* NASCAR Cup Series Championship playoff race
NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds over time
Odds via DraftKings.
| Driver | Opening odds | July 8 | Aug. 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +550 | +400 | +380 |
| William Byron | +550 | +550 | +800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +750 | +1000 | +800 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 | +450 | +380 |
| Chase Elliott | +850 | +1000 | +1100 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 | +450 | +400 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1000 | +1400 | +1600 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 | +1200 | +1600 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Ross Chastain | +1400 | +2800 | +5000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1400 | +1400 | +500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 | +2000 | +2200 |
| Chris Buescher | +2000 | +2500 | +6000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2800 | +2800 | +3500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Alex Bowman | +3500 | +2500 | +3500 |
| Josh Berry | +6000 | +10000 | +70000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +7000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +7000 | +10000 | +30000 |
Past NASCAR Cup Series Championship winners
| Year | Driver | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | +1000 |
| 2022 | Joey Logano | +1400 |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | +1100 |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | +1200 |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch | +600 |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | +800 |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | +800 |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson | +700 |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick | +2000 |
| 2013 | Jimmie Johnson | +350 |
How to bet on the NASCAR Cup Series Championship
While there is no dominant driver in the NASCAR field as there once was, there's a clear top three with Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell trading wins every few weeks. You can toss William Byron into that mix, as well, though his three wins all came within the first eight weeks of the season.
Betting on any of those drivers isn't a bad way to invest in the season, with all looking likely to be among the final cars in the playoff field. If you're looking for a way to fade those leaders, you might find better value on a race-to-race basis - like we saw with Alex Bowman (+2200), Daniel Suarez (+4500), Austin Dillon (+10000), and Austin Cindric (+25000) as long-shot winners.
That said, NASCAR's playoff format adds volatility to the overall field, so we recommend picking off relative values like Ty Gibbs, who has the makeup and team to compete if he can secure his spot in the playoffs.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship FAQs
Who is the NASCAR Cup Series Championship favorite?
Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are tied as consensus favorites to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship with odds as short as +380. Those odds represent an implied probability of 20.83% according to our odds converter.
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?
Ryan Blaney won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, outlasting Kyle Larson and William Byron in the final race of the season at Phoenix Raceway.
When will the NASCAR Cup Series Championship be decided?
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship will be decided on Nov. 10, when the final four drivers compete at Phoenix Raceway.
Where will the NASCAR Cup Series Championship take place?
For the fifth straight year, the NASCAR Cup Series Championship will take place at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona, as the conclusion of the 16-driver playoff.
When is the next NASCAR race?
The next race in the NASCAR Cup Series is the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway, which will be televised on ABC and NBC on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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