Dutch Grand Prix Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Oddsmakers Expecting Verstappen to 3-Peat
When it comes to betting on Sunday’s Formula 1 race, there are lots of options to choose from for your Dutch GP picks and predictions based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.
After four weeks off, the stars of Formula 1 return to the track Sunday in the Netherlands. Circuit Zandvoort will host the Dutch Grand Prix for the third consecutive year after the race endured a 25-year contract-related hiatus.
Since the Dutch GP returned to the F1 schedule in 2021, Max Verstappen has reigned supreme. He won each of the past two seasons and replicated his pole position from a year ago in qualifying on Saturday. With an eight-race winning streak coming in, it’s no shock to see Verstappen priced as a massive odds-on favorite for a Dutch three-peat by our best sportsbooks.
Can anyone topple the unbeatable Verstappen and Red Bull Racing on Sunday? The starting grid will feature an interesting top-5 that includes McLaren’s Lando Norris, Mercedes’ George Russell, Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso and even Williams’ Alexander Albon. That said, Verstappen was over half a second faster than all of them in qualifying.
Here are our best bets and 2023 Dutch Grand Prix predictions for Sunday’s race at Circuit Zandvoort (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dutch GP Best Bets
- Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-430 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 3 finish: George Russell (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Points finish parlay: Fernando Alonso (-470) and Lance Stroll (-160) = -104 via FanDuel⭐⭐
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Dutch GP odds
Dutch GP odds as of Saturday at 7:20 p.m. ET
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -525 | -430 🔥 | -650 ❄️ | -500 | -600 |
| Lando Norris | +800 | +900 | +800 | +900 | +800 |
| George Russell | +1100 ❄️ | +1600 🔥 | +1200 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Sergio Perez | +2800 | +2900 🔥 | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +4500 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +5500 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +5500 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Oscar Piastri | +6500 | +6500 | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
Dutch GP predictions
Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-430 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Does anyone have the stones to bet against Verstappen winning the Dutch Grand Prix outright? We certainly don’t, and we don’t care if you want to cluck like a chicken at us or not. Verstappen and Red Bull Racing are in the midst of an all-time great season. After nabbing the pole position in Saturday’s qualifying, an end to his dominance does not appear to be imminent.
As touched on in the intro, Verstappen carries an eight-race winning streak into Sunday’s event. One would have to go all the way back to April 30 in Azerbaijan to find the last time that he did not cross the finish line first. Verstappen has won 10 of the 12 F1 races held thus far in 2023 and was runner-up to teammate Sergio Perez the two times he did not take home the top spot.
Two years ago, Verstappen qualified first and went on to dominate the Dutch GP, crossing the line more than 20 seconds ahead of runner-up Lewis Hamilton. He also started on the pole last year. While it was a tighter affair, he still finished a comfortable four seconds clear of George Russell.
Taking everything into consideration, it’s easy to see why some sportsbooks give Verstappen as high as an 86.7% chance to win Sunday’s race. FanDuel’s -430 price is easily the cheapest to lay in the market and still implies an 81.1% chance of a three-peat.
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Top 3 finish: George Russell (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Circuit Zandvoort seems to be a track that Russell has taken a liking to. Two years ago while driving for the Williams-Mercedes team, he qualified 11th but had his day cut three laps short due to a gearbox failure. In his first Dutch GP as a flagship Mercedes driver last season, Russell qualified sixth and rose all the way up to finish in second.
While Russell was still over four seconds back of Verstappen in last year’s race, he was the only car to finish within 10 seconds of the leader. Russell doesn’t need to beat Verstappen on Sunday to score another podium finish. For that matter, he doesn’t even need to gain positions as he did a year ago.
Russell secured the third position on the starting grid with an impressive showing in Saturday’s qualifying session. He very well could overtake McLaren’s Lando Norris on track. What’s more, with Williams’ Alexander Albon starting fourth, Russell should have a slight buffer between himself and other drivers with equipment capable of gaining positions.
Based on his starting spot and his past history in this race, one can easily argue that Russell has a better chance than the 54.5% implied probability to finish on the podium. Other oddsmakers would seem to agree. While this prop is available at -120 odds through bet365, several other major shops have it listed five cents higher.
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Points finish parlay: Fernando Alonso (-470), Lance Stroll (-160) = -104 via FanDuel ⭐⭐
We are doubling down on the Aston Martin teammates with this Dutch GP prop bet. Both recent performance and pricing disparities are factored into the decision to play a two-leg parlay for Alonso and Stroll to both finish in the top-10 on Sunday.
First, let’s consider the drivers. Alonso placed sixth in the Dutch Grand Prix in each of the past two seasons. He gained three spots on track to do so in ‘21 and a whopping seven positions a year ago after starting 13th. This year, he will enjoy the fifth starting position. While he may not have any outright wins this season (few drivers do), Alonso has not finished outside of the points in any race this season.
As far as Stroll is concerned, he finished 12th in this race two years ago and improved to 10th last year. On Sunday, he will line up 11th on the grid. However, with Williams’ Logan Sargeant starting directly in front of him, Stroll figures to easily gain at least one position on the track. Dating back to a sixth-place finish in the Spanish GP, Stroll has placed top-10 in five of six races.
As far as pricing is concerned, bettors can obtain 16 cents of value by betting on both drivers to finish in the points at FanDuel relative to DraftKings. The team prop is worded differently there, but betting “both Aston Martin drivers to finish top-10” is the exact same wager. However, it is priced at -120.
Oh, and for a little added bonus, bettors can also choose to throw in a third driver to their parlay at FanDuel. Simply tossing Verstappen in with the Aston Martin teammates would result in a parlay ticket with +116 odds via FanDuel. Adding in Lando Norris or George Russell instead of Verstappen would raise the odds to +130.
Dutch GP race info
- When: Sunday, August 27, 9 a.m. ET
- Where: Circuit Zandvoort, New Holland, Netherlands
- How to watch: ESPN
- Defending winner: Max Verstappen
Dutch GP picks made 08/26/23 at 4 p.m. ET
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