Canadian GP Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Verstappen Favored Again

From a familiar outright winner selection to a five-leg race matchup parlay, our Canadian GP  picks and predictions offer plenty of wagering options with the best F1 odds.

After a week off to travel across the Atlantic Ocean, the stars of Formula 1 return to the track this Sunday. The Canadian Grand Prix marks the second race of the 2023 season to be held in North America.

A familiar name crossed the finish line first in Montreal a year ago. Defending series champion Max Verstappen certainly carries plenty of momentum into this weekend’s race as he looks to defend his 2022 victory and extend his lead atop the F1 Championship odds. The Dutchman has won each of the last three F1 events and five of seven on the season overall.

Qualifying for this year’s Canadian GP offered up a little bit of everything, including wet weather conditions. Verstappen captured yet another pole for Red Bull Racing, but the star of the show was Haas’ Nico Hulkenberg who qualified second. Unfortunately, he will ultimately line up fifth on Sunday’s grid as he was one of several drivers who were assessed penalties.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Canadian GP picks for Sunday’s action at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canadian GP picks

• Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-350 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Top 3 finish: Lewis Hamilton (-150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Head-to-head matchup parlay: Max Verstappen (-1000 vs. Sergio Perez) + Fernando Alonso (-900 vs. Lance Stroll) + Esteban Ocon (-400 vs. Pierre Gasly) + Alexander Albon (-650 vs. Logan Sargeant) + Valtteri Bottas (-350 vs. Guanyu Zhou) = +126 (via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

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Canadian GP odds

Canadian GP predictions

Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-350 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At this point, anything other than a Max Verstappen outright victory in any given week would be somewhat of a shocker. BetMGM’s -350 odds on the defending Canadian Grand Prix winner to repeat implies a 77.8% probability that he will do so. What’s more, this is by far the cheapest price for the pole sitter.

Verstappen has picked up right where he left off after winning the Formula 1 Championship in dominant fashion a year ago. He has won five of the first seven races this season and clearly has the best equipment of any driver in the field. 

The only two times he hasn’t hoisted the trophy in 2023, his Red Bull Racing teammate, Sergio Perez, was the victor. Oh, and speaking of those two Perez wins, Verstappen finished as the runner-up to his teammate in both races. 

As far as the Canadian GP is concerned, Verstappen has already matched last year’s pole. This was one of his closer victories a season ago, as he beat Carlos Sainz by only 0.993 seconds. Even so, it’s impossible to willingly wager money on anyone passing Verstappen on Sunday to steal the win.

Top 3 finish: Lewis Hamilton (-150) ⭐⭐⭐

Prior to the Canadian GP’s two-year hiatus in 2020-21, Lewis Hamilton was the driver to beat on the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. The same can be said of a number of other F1 circuits, but Hamilton’s success here speaks for itself. 

Hamilton enters the 2023 event tied with Michael Schumacher for the most Canadian Grand Prix wins (seven) all-time. His dominance was at its peak just before the race’s two-year absence from the schedule as he won four times in five years from 2015-19.

On Saturday, Hamilton qualified fourth, finishing within two seconds of Verstappen. However, due to the red flag infraction that was assessed to Hulkenberg, the seven-time champ will actually line up third on Sunday’s starting grid. Thus, Hamilton will simply need to maintain his position throughout the race to secure a podium finish.

Starting from the same spot a year ago, Hamilton picked up one position during the race to finish third. Following a slow start to the 2023 campaign, Hamilton has notably finished fourth and second in the last two races and has a pair of top-3 showings for the season. He may not be on Verstappen’s level, but he is running as well as any other driver in the sport at present.

It’s also worth noting that BetMGM’s -150 price for Hamilton to finish on the podium is at least 10 cents cheaper than what any other of our best sports betting sites is listing for this prop.

Head-to-head matchup parlay: Max Verstappen (-1000 vs. Perez), Fernando Alonso (-900 vs. Stroll), Esteban Ocon (-400 vs. Gasly), Alexander Albon (-650 vs. Sargeant), Valtteri Bottas (-350 vs. Zhou) = +126 (via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

Admittedly, five-leg parlays can be a rather daunting betting proposition given all that must come to fruition for such a ticket to cash. That said, this head-to-head matchup parlay utilizing BetMGM odds feels like a pretty safe option, barring any unforeseen mechanical failures.

The first leg of this ticket is pretty self-explanatory. Sergio Perez may be the second-fastest car in the field on Sunday, but overtaking Verstappen will be impossible without the latter having some sort of mishap.

The same can be said of the second leg. Fernando Alonso has been outperforming his Aston Martin teammate, Lance Stroll, all season long. While Alonso will line up second on the starting grid, Stroll will have to go off 16th after being assessed a three-spot penalty of his own after Saturday’s qualifying session.

Meanwhile, Esteban Ocon has been running very well of late, with third and eighth-place finishes in the last two races. With the sixth starting spot on the Canadian GP grid, he should have little difficulty outrunning Alpine teammate, Pierre Gasly, who will be starting in 15th.

Alexander Albon turned some heads in qualifying with the fastest time in the second session. That was enough to land him the No. 9 spot on the starting grid after the post-qualifying penalties shook out. He is in a great position to beat Williams teammate Logan Sargeant who will be starting 18th.

Finally, we will look to back Valtteri Bottas in his head-to-head matchup against Alfa Romeo teammate, Guanyu Zhou. Not only will Bottas be starting six spots ahead of his teammate, but Zhou dealt with a mechanical issue in qualifying. It remains to be seen whether that carries over to the race. Either way, he will have a lot of ground to make up to surpass Bottas.

All told, none of the favorites we are backing in this head-to-head matchup parlay has less than -350 odds to win. Betting all of these matchups individually would not offer much in the way of a profitable return. However, when combined into this five-leg parlay, we are able to obtain a respectable +126 price.

Canadian GP Race Info

• Date: Sunday, June 18, 2 p.m. ET
• Location: Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
• TV: ESPN
• Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Canadian GP picks made 06/17/23 at 10 p.m. ET

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