Dream vs. Sun Predictions, Picks & Odds: Sun Look to Stay Hot at Home
Connecticut is laying a hefty number after covering as a slim road favorite against Atlanta on Sunday. Has the market overcorrected? Read on for a breakdown of the Dream-Sun prediction based on the top WNBA odds from our best sports betting apps.
Among the three WNBA games scheduled for Thursday evening is a clash between the Atlanta Dream and the Connecticut Sun. In addition to the season-long standings, this matchup will count toward the Commissioner’s Cup.
For the Dream (4-4 against the spread, 5-3 O/U), this will mark the second of an ongoing four-game road trip. Atlanta snapped a three-game losing skid with an impressive upset win over the New York Liberty on Tuesday night. Six players scored in double figures for the Dream in that victory.
As for the Sun (5-4-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U), this will be their first game since playing the Dream this past Sunday down in Atlanta. Connecticut was victorious in that contest, picking up its fifth win in the last six games. Thursday's outing precedes a three-game West Coast road trip.
Here is our best Dream-Sun prediction (odds via BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Dream vs. Sun prediction
Dream +8.5 (-115 via BetMGM)⭐⭐
The primary rationale for looking to back the Dream as a road underdog stems from how much the betting market has adjusted the point spread relative to when these two teams last met.
The Sun closed as a 3.5-point favorite on the road for Sunday’s game. Now Connecticut is a consensus home favorite of -8, with BetMGM sitting at -8.5. While home court is worth something, it's difficult to make the case that a line should be adjusted a five full points simply due to a change in venue.
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If one includes a preseason meeting between the teams, the Sun have had their way in both matchups against the Dream so far in 2023. However, Sunday’s 12-point margin of victory was a bit misleading in terms of how competitive Atlanta was throughout. Connecticut only held a five-point lead after the first three quarters of play.
The Dream certainly haven’t suffered a major setback in between games that would warrant them catching five additional points on the road. If anything, Atlanta’s power rating should’ve perhaps been given a slight boost after beating the Liberty outright on Tuesday as a 9.5-point road underdog.
Six Dream players scored in double figures during the win over New York on Tuesday compared to just three in Sunday’s loss to Connecticut. The Sun have been one of the WNBA's stingiest defensive teams to begin the campaign, but if Atlanta can limit turnovers and shoot efficiently, staying within the 8.5-point spread is certainly doable.
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Dream vs. Sun best odds
BetMGM (-115)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +7.5 | +7.5 | +8.5 | +8 | +7.5 |
| -110 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
When shopping the odds for this matchup, BetMGM emerges among our best sports betting sites as the book that Dream bettors should target. With a spread of +8.5, BetMGM is offering up to a full point of additional value on the underdog in this spot.
You'll need to lay some extra vig, but it’s well worth spending the five cents to obtain the value on the spread.
Dream vs. Sun game info
Date: Thursday, June 15, 7 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime
Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
Dream-Sun pick made 6/15/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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