2024 Men's Wimbledon Semifinal Predictions & Odds: Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Tournament favorite Carlos Alcaraz faces Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon semifinal for the second straight year as we offer our best predictions for Friday's match.

Mike Spector

Last updated: July 12, 2024 7:14 AM EDT • 4 min read

Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev at the net as we offer our best Medvedev vs. Alcaraz predictions and odds for Friday's semifinal match at Wimbledon 2024. — Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev at the net after their match on Day 12 at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in last year's semifinals. Photo by Susan Mullane / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

Carlos Alcaraz looks to continue his defense of last year’s Wimbledon title when he takes on Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals on Friday, and we have you covered with our best Medvedev vs. Alcaraz predictions from our best sports betting sites.

Alcaraz had the second-best pre-tournament Wimbledon odds, but he's now the favorite with odds as high as +120 across our best sportsbooks heading into the semifinals. Meanwhile, Medvedev had the eighth-best odds before the tournament started (+3000) as he looks to take down his second top-three player in a row after beating world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in five sets in the quarterfinals.

Alcaraz seeks to become the ninth man in the Open Era to successfully defend the Gentlemen’s Singles title, and he is a -320 moneyline favorite against Medvedev on Centre Court at the All England Club on Friday afternoon.

Medvedev vs. Alcaraz odds

(Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

Market	Medvedev	Alcaraz
Moneyline	+250	-320
Spread	+4.5 (-105)	-4.5 (-115)
Over/Under	Over 39.5 (-105)	Under 39.5 (-120)

Medvedev vs. Alcaraz prediction

Alcaraz to win in four sets ⭐⭐⭐

Medvedev’s rather lofty pre-tournament odds for a top-five player were in large part because his path to a championship likely required going through Sinner, Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic. While Medvedev was impressive in ousting Sinner in five sets, beating Alcaraz on grass - albeit his least preferred surface - is an arduous task, especially after a grueling four-hour marathon in the quarterfinals.

Alcaraz has won 41 of his last 44 Grand Slam matches, and his 12-1 career five-set record is the best record in the Open Era. Though Medvedev hit 13 winners in the fifth set alone against Sinner, that was likely a product of the Italian's limited movement after needing two medical timeouts, which Medvedev noted in his post-match interview.

This is a rematch of last year's semifinal, which Alcaraz won in straight sets 6-3, 6-3, 6-3. The Spaniard broke Medvedev six times in that match (and had 14 break-point opportunities), while also boasting a much better first-serve percentage (71% vs. 59%).

Alcaraz should advance to a second straight Wimbledon final, given that he is 3-2 in five career major semifinals, but Medvedev does have two career victories in six head-to-head matches against Alcaraz. That experience, as well as Alcaraz dropping at least one set in each of his last three matches, means Medvedev should win a set.

We are eschewing the 41.67% implied probability at Caesars for Alcaraz to win in straight sets for a bigger payout with the 27.03% implied probability he will win in four. At these +270 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $27 in profit.

Best odds: +270 via Caesars | Implied probability: 27.03%

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Wimbledon semifinal best odds

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
+245	+260	+270	+270	+240

All five of our best sports betting apps have Alcaraz to win in straight sets as the shortest odds (as low as +140 at Caesars), while Alcaraz to win in five sets is as high as +550 at Caesars.

Given that Alcaraz is such a big favorite in this match, we prefer the value of backing him to win in four sets at +270 as opposed to DraftKings’ -150 odds for Alcaraz to cover the -1.5 set spread. And given that DraftKings also has -240 odds for Medvedev to win at least one set, that adds more value to our exact set betting wager.

Medvedev vs. Alcaraz H2H stats

Medvedev	Stat	Alcaraz
2	Matches won	4
1	Wins in straight sets	4
6	Sets won	10
69	Games won	78
1	Wins on grass	1

Wimbledon semifinal match info

When: Friday, July 12 (time TBD)
Where: Centre Court, London
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: Alcaraz (-320 via DraftKings)

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Medvedev-Alcaraz pick made Wednesday at 1:37 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”